Roy Morgan Business Confidence increases driven by more confidence about the year ahead
In June 2025, Roy Morgan Business Confidence increased 2.8pts to 102.4 in the month after the Federal Election and is now marginally above the neutral level of 100.
Driving Business Confidence higher and into positive territory above 100 was more confidence about the year ahead both for businesses and the broader Australian economy – with interest rates tipped to fall over the remainder of the year.
The positive news for the Australian economy was highlighted by the ASX 200 stock-market closing at an all-time record high of 8,592 in mid-June and the Australian Dollar reaching its highest point so far this year at 65.5 US cents in late June.
Businesses grew significantly more confident about their own prospects over the next year with 39.6% (up 7.3% points) expecting to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year compared to 21.7% (down 1.8% points) that expect to be ‘worse off’ financially.
There was also greater confidence about the prospects for the Australian economy over the next year with a rising majority of 59.2% (up 1.1% points) expecting ‘good times’ for the economy over the next 12 months compared to 36.7% (down 2.6% points) expecting ‘bad times’.
Business Confidence is now 7.7pts below the long-term average of 110.1, but 15.2pts higher than the latest ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence of 88.6 for June 30 – July 6, 2025.
Roy Morgan Monthly Business Confidence -- Australia
Source: Roy Morgan Business Single Source, Dec 2010-June 2025. Average monthly sample over the last 12 months = 1,490.
Business Confidence is up significantly from a year ago driven by large increases in Victoria, Queensland and Western Australia, but largely unchanged in the three other States
Business Confidence for the month of June increased 2.8pts from a month ago and is up an impressive 10.9pts from June 2024. The sharp increase in Business Confidence has been driven by improving sentiment in Victoria, Queensland, and Western Australia all up by over 15pts from a year ago.
Business Confidence in Queensland is at 106.6 and up a large 17.6pts from a year ago and is matched by Victoria, up 20.2pts to 106.6. There is also a large rise in Business Confidence in Western Australia, up by a large 17.9pts from a year ago to 104.8.
Business Confidence is up marginally from a year ago in South Australia by 1.5pts to 104.0.
However, Business Confidence is down marginally in two States – Tasmania and New South Wales – and now well below the neutral level of 100. In Tasmania, Business Confidence has dropped 4.2pts to 93.0 with the State facing an unexpected election in mid-July after a no confidence motion was passed against current Liberal Premier Jeremy Rockliff.
Business Confidence is now lowest of all in New South Wales, down 3pts from a year ago to 92.9.
Business Confidence by State in June 2024 vs June 2025
Source: Roy Morgan Business Single Source, June 2024, n=1,455, June 2025, n=1,215. Base: Australian businesses. *Tasmanian Business Confidence is measured over two months: May & June 2024 cf. May & June 2025.
Public Administration & Safety, Accommodation & Food Services, Electricity, gas, water & waste and Rental hiring and real estate services are the four most confident industries during May & June 2025
Over the last two months there were 10 industries with Business Confidence in positive territory above the neutral level of 100 led by Public Administration & Safety, Accommodation & Food Services, Electricity, Gas, Water & Waste Services, Rental, Hiring & Real Estate Services, Retail Trade, Financial & Insurance Services, Arts & Recreation Services and Wholesale Trade filling out the top eight industries.
There were two industries with confidence over 25pts above the average in May & June 2025 including Public Administration & Safety on 130.9, up a large 41.5pts on a year ago – the largest increase of any of the 18 industries and Accommodation & Food Services on 128.6, up 23.5pts on a year ago – the second largest increase of any of the 18 industries.
There were only two industries with Business Confidence deeply in negative territory below 90 during the last two months and the least confident industry is again Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing on only 63.0. Business Confidence in this industry has been at low levels for a significant period of time and has averaged only 82.8 over the last three years – clearly the lowest of any industry.
Other industries lacking confidence include Mining on 86.5, Information Media & Telecommunications on 95.7, Construction on 96.8 and Transport, Postal & Warehousing on 97.1 and an average of 86.9 over the last three years – the second lowest of any industry over this sustained period of time.
Business Confidence for Top 5 and Bottom 5 Industries in May & June 2025
Source: Roy Morgan Business Single Source, May & June 2025, n=2,433. Base: Australian businesses.
Note: In the chart above, green bars represent Business Confidence in positive territory above the national average, red bars represent Business Confidence well below the national average and below the neutral level of 100 while the dark blue bar represents Business Confidence above the neutral level of 100 but still below the national average.
Business Confidence increased 2.8pts to 102.4 in June driven by more confidence about the year ahead both for businesses and the Australian economy at large:
- In June, over a quarter of businesses, 26.4% (up 3.9ppts), said their business is ‘better off’ financially than this time a year ago,while 40.6% (up 4.6ppts), said the business is ‘worse off’;
- Businesses’ views on their prospects for the next year improved significantly in June with 39.6% (up 7.3ppts) expecting the business will be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while under a quarter, 21.7% (down 1.8ppts), expect the business will be ‘worse off’;
- Confidence regarding the performance of the Australian economy over the next year improved with a rising majority of 59.2% (up 1.1ppts) expecting ‘good times’ while 36.7% (down 2.6ppts) expect ‘bad times’;
- Businesses’ views on the long-term future of the Australian economy over the next five years were virtually unchanged in June with 32.8% (up 0.2ppts) expecting ‘good times’ over the next five years compared to an unchanged majority of 57.1% expecting ‘bad times’;
- Net sentiment on whether now is a ‘good or bad time to invest in growing the business’improved modestly in June with 44.7% (up 2.6ppts) saying the next 12 months will be a ‘good time to invest’ in growing the business (the highest figure for this indicator so far this year) while 34.9% (up 1.4ppts) say the next 12 months will be a ‘bad time to invest’.
Michele Levine, CEO of Roy Morgan, says Business Confidence improved for a second straight month in June, up by 2.8pts to 102.4 following the re-election of the Albanese Government in early May:
“Roy Morgan Business Confidence increased 2.8pts to 102.4 in June following the record-setting re-election of the Albanese Government early in May, and later in May the Reserve Bank of Australia’s decision to cut interest rates by 0.25% to 3.85% – the lowest official interest rates for two years.
“This was a second straight monthly increase in Business Confidence following the upheaval on global share-markets in April sparked by US President Donald Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs. The uncertainty created by the tariffs’ announcement appears long past with the Australian ASX200 stock index hitting an all-time record high above 8,500 in mid-June.
“Two indicators improved in both May and June. Now 44.7% of businesses say ‘the next 12 months is a good time to invest in growing the business’ – up 6.5% points since April, and nearly a third, 32.8% (up 6.3% points), say they expect ‘good times’ for the economy over the next five years.
“Businesses remain most confident about the Australian economy’s performance over the next year with a rising majority of 59.2% (up 1.1% points from May) expecting ‘good times’ for the economy over the next year. This indicator has now been the highest of the five key indicators for over a year since April 2024 as businesses continue to have a positive view on the economy’s near-term prospects.
“On a State-by-State basis Business Confidence was highest in Victoria and Queensland in June at 106.6. There were also positive results for Western Australia (104.8) and South Australia (104.0).
“However, Business Confidence is well below the neutral level of 100 in both New South Wales (92.9) and Tasmania (93.0). Tasmanians are set to vote in an unexpected State election in mid-July after a no confidence motion was successfully brought against Tasmanian Premier Jeremy Rockliff.
“At an industry level, it is Public Administration & Safety on 130.0 and Accommodation & Food Services on 128.6 which are the most confident industries over 25 points higher than the national average. Other confident industries include Electricity, gas, water & waste services on 116.0, Rental, hiring & Real Estate Services on 110.0, Retail Trade on 107.7 and Financial & Insurance Services on 106.3.
“At the other end of the scale is Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing on only 63 and the lowest average Business Confidence over a sustained period of the last three years of 82.8 – the lowest average of any of the 18 industries. Business Confidence for the Mining industry is at only 86.5 – the only other industry with a low Business Confidence below 90.”
The latest Roy Morgan Business Confidence results for May are based on 1,215 detailed interviews with a cross-section of Australian businesses from each State and Territory. Detailed findings are available to purchase on a monthly or annual subscription as part of the Roy Morgan Business Confidence Report.
For comments or more information please contact:
Michele Levine
CEO, Roy Morgan
Office: +61 (3) 9224 5215
Mobile: 0411 129 093
To learn more about Roy Morgan’s Business Confidence, Consumer Confidence and Inflation Expectations data call (+61) (3) 9224 5309 or email askroymorgan@roymorgan.com.
About Roy Morgan
Roy Morgan is Australia’s largest independent Australian research company, with offices in each state, as well as in the U.S. and U.K. A full-service research organisation, Roy Morgan has over 80 years’ experience collecting objective, independent information on consumers.
Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
