Roy Morgan Business Confidence increases modestly after the Albanese Government’s decisive election win
In May 2025, Roy Morgan Business Confidence increased by 2.9pts to 99.6 in the weeks after last month’s Federal Election, but still results marginally below the neutral level of 100. In the weeks after the Federal Election in late May 2022, Business Confidence dropped by 2.9 points.
The Albanese Government’s decisive victory at last month’s Federal Election – winning a record-equaling 94 seats in the House of Representatives as well the largest share of the two-party preferred vote for well over 40 years – has led to only a modest improvement in Business Confidence in May.
The election result produced mixed results across the five questions that comprise the Business Confidence index with more confidence around the long-term prospects for the Australian economy (32.6%, up 6.1% points, expect ‘good times’ over the next five years) and greater confidence that the next 12 months is a good time to invest in growing the business (42.1%, up 3.9% points).
In contrast, there was less confidence about businesses own prospects with only 32.3% (down 3.7% points) expecting to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year (the lowest figure for this indicator for a decade since August 2015) and only 22.5% (down 1.8% points) saying they are ‘better off’ financially than this time a year ago – the lowest figure for this indicator for five years since August 2020.
Business Confidence is now 10.5pts below the long-term average of 110.1, but 12.9pts higher than the latest ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence of 86.7 for June 2-8, 2025.
Roy Morgan Monthly Business Confidence - Australia
Source: Roy Morgan Business Single Source, Dec 2010-May 2025. Average monthly sample over the last 12 months = 1,510.
Business Confidence is up slightly from a year ago with the biggest increases in Victoria and Queensland, but offset by declines in Western Australia and New South Wales
Business Confidence for the month of May increased by 2.9pts from a month ago and is up a similar amount from a year ago, up 2.6pts from May 2024. The increase in Business Confidence has been driven by improving sentiment in Victoria and Queensland, but a sharp drop in Western Australia.
In contrast to all other States, Business Confidence in Queensland is in positive territory above the neutral level of 100 at 105, up 6.5pts from a year ago. Business Confidence has also increased significantly in Victoria, up 7.8pts to 98.3.
Business Confidence is up marginally in Tasmania by 1.5pts to 83.8. However, Business Confidence is far lower than anywhere else in Tasmania which has faced increasing political uncertainty in recent weeks. The State is set to face an election in mid-July after Opposition Leader Dean Winter moved a successful no confidence motion against the current Liberal Premier Jeremy Rockliff.
The sharpest drop in Business Confidence was in Western Australia, down by a significant 13.7pts to 96.5. There were also marginal declines in New South Wales, down 1.9pts to 96.2, and in South Australia, down by 2.2pts to 99.4 and just below the neutral level of 100.
Business Confidence by State in May 2024 vs May 2025
Source: Roy Morgan Business Single Source, May 2024, n=1,513, May 2025, n=1,218. Base: Australian businesses. *Tasmanian Business Confidence is measured over two months: April & May 2024 cf. April & May 2025.
Accommodation & Food Services, Public Administration & Safety and Education & Training are the three most confident industries during April and May 2025
Over the last two months there were 11 industries with Business Confidence in positive territory above the neutral level of 100 led by Accommodation & Food Services, Public Administration & Safety, Education & Training, Electricity, Gas, Water & Waste Services, Rental, Hiring & Real Estate Services, Retail Trade, Financial & Insurance Services, Arts & Recreation Services and Manufacturing filling out the top nine industries.
There were three industries with confidence over 20pts above the average in April and May 2025 led by Accommodation & Food Services on 124.5, up a large 35.7pts on a year ago – the largest increase of any of the 18 industries, Public Administration & Safety, on 121.4, up 19.8pts on a year ago, and Education & Training on 118.9, and up 6pts on a year ago. Education & Training has now been amongst the top five most confident industries for three years since June 2022.
There were only two industries with Business Confidence deeply in negative territory below 90 during the last two months and the least confident industry is again Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing on only 68.0. Business Confidence in this industry has been at low levels for a significant period of time and has averaged only 83.6 over the last three years – the lowest of any industry.
The second least confident industry is Transport, Postal & Warehousing on 86.5 and an average of only 87.5 over the last three years – the second lowest of any industry over this sustained period of time.
Business Confidence for Top 5 and Bottom 5 Industries in April & May 2025
Source: Roy Morgan Business Single Source, April & May 2025, n=2,767. Base: Australian businesses.
Note: In the chart above, green bars represent Business Confidence in positive territory above the national average, red bars represent Business Confidence well below the national average and below the neutral level of 100 while the dark blue bar represents Business Confidence above the neutral level of 100 but still below the national average.
Business Confidence increased 2.9pts to 99.6 in May driven by more confidence about investing in the business over the next 12 months and the Australian economy’s prospects over the long-term:
- In May, under a quarter of businesses, 22.5% (down 1.8ppts), said their business is ‘better off’ financially than this time a year ago – the lowest figure for this indicator for over four years since August 2020 during the pandemic, while 36% (down 0.7ppts), said the business is ‘worse off’;
- Businesses’ views on their prospects for the next year were down in May with 32.3% (down 3.7ppts) expecting the business will be ‘better off’ financially this time next year (the lowest figure for this indicator for almost a decade since August 2015), while under a quarter, 23.5% (down 2.1ppts), expect the business will be ‘worse off’;
- Confidence regarding the performance of the Australian economy over the next year was little changed with an unchanged majority of 58.1% expecting ‘good times’ while 39.3% (up 2.1ppts) expect ‘bad times’;
- Businesses’ views on the long-term future of the Australian economy over the next five years improved sharply in May with 32.6% (up 6.1ppts) expecting ‘good times’ over the next five years compared to decreasing majority of 57.1% (down 3.9ppts) expecting ‘bad times’;
- Net sentiment on whether now is a ‘good or bad time to invest in growing the business’improved significantly in May with 42.1% (up 3.9ppts) saying the next 12 months will be a ‘good time to invest’ in growing the business while 33.5% (down 5.4ppts) say the next 12 months will be a ‘bad time to invest’.
Michele Levine, CEO of Roy Morgan, says Business Confidence improved by 2.9pts to 99.6 in May, a modest increase after the record-setting re-election of the Albanese Government:
“Roy Morgan Business Confidence increased by 2.9pts to 99.6 in May following the crushing re-election victory of the Albanese Government earlier in the month. Towards the end of the month the Reserve Bank of Australia cut interest rates by 0.25% to 3.85% – the lowest official interest rates for two years.
“The rebound in May followed a sharp fall in April due to the global uncertainty sparked by President Donald Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs. President Trump later walked back and suspended the implementation of many of these tariffs which led to recovery in global share-markets and other indicators – including Roy Morgan’s Business Confidence Index.
“However, the recovery in Business Confidence was not widespread with the increase driven entirely by two indicators relating to the Australian economy’s performance over the long-term and an increasing willingness by businesses to make productive investments.
“Now 32.6% (up 6.1ppts) of businesses expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next five years and a plurality of 42.1% (up 3.9ppts) of businesses that say the next 12 months is a ‘good time to invest’ in growing the business.
“In contrast, businesses’ confidence about their own prospects, as well the performance of the Australian economy over the next 12 months, weakened in May. Now under a third of businesses, only 32.3% (down 3.7ppts), expect to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year – the lowest figure for this indicator for nearly a decade since August 2015.
“On a State-by-State basis Business Confidence was in positive territory only in Queensland in May at 105. However, Business Confidence is below the neutral level of 100 in all other States including New South Wales (96.2), Victoria (98.3), Western Australia (96.5), South Australia (99.4).
“Business Confidence is lowest of all in Tasmania at only 86.9. This is no surprise given Tasmania has been beset by significant political uncertainty in recent weeks with a no confidence motion brought against Tasmanian Premier Jeremy Rockliff set to lead to an early election in the State in mid-July.
“At an industry level, it is Accommodation & Food Services on 124.5, Public Administration & Safety on 121.4 and Education & Training on 118.9 which are the most confident industries around 20 points higher than the national average. Education & Training has now been amongst the top five most confident industries for three years since June 2022. Other confident industries include Electricity, gas, water & waste services on 117.2 and Rental, Hiring & Real Estate Services on 111.7.
“At the other end of the scale is Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing on only 68 and the lowest average Business Confidence over a sustained period of the last three years of 83.6 – the lowest average of any of the 18 industries. Business Confidence for the Transport, Postal & Warehousing industry is at only 86.5 – the only other industry with a low Business Confidence below 90.”
The latest Roy Morgan Business Confidence results for May are based on 1,218 detailed interviews with a cross-section of Australian businesses from each State and Territory. Detailed findings are available to purchase on a monthly or annual subscription as part of the Roy Morgan Business Confidence Report.
For comments or more information please contact:
Michele Levine
CEO, Roy Morgan
Office: +61 (3) 9224 5215
Mobile: 0411 129 093
To learn more about Roy Morgan’s Business Confidence, Consumer Confidence and Inflation Expectations data call (+61) (3) 9224 5309 or email askroymorgan@roymorgan.com.
About Roy Morgan
Roy Morgan is Australia’s largest independent Australian research company, with offices in each state, as well as in the U.S. and U.K. A full-service research organisation, Roy Morgan has over 80 years’ experience collecting objective, independent information on consumers.
Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
