Australian employment declines since February over-represented in Victoria and amongst young people under 35
Roy Morgan employment estimates for May 2026 released this week show a continuing trend – a shrinking workforce and fewer Australians employed for three straight months since February 2026.
Roy Morgan estimates the overall workforce size (which adds together the employed and unemployed) at just under 15.9 million in May – 15,860,000 to be exact, down 231,000 on a month ago, and down 403,000 over the three months since February 2026 – when the Reserve Bank began raising interest rates.
In Victoria, the workforce is down by 162,000 (40% of the overall decline in the Australian workforce) over the last three months to 4,086,000 in May. Around the rest of Australia, the workforce is down by 245,000 (60% of the overall decline) to 11,767,000 during the same period.
More importantly, there has also been a decline in employment. In Victoria, employment is down 172,000 over the last three months to 3,591,000 in May 2026 (45% of the overall decline in Australian employment). Around the rest of Australia, employment is down by 210,000 (55% of the overall decline).
Employment declines are heavily correlated to age
The declines in employment in the last few months have hit younger workers aged under 35, and those aged 50+ the hardest.
Since February 2026, employment for people under 35 is down 180,000 to 5,589,000. This has led to unemployment for this age group rising from 14.2% to 15% (up 0.8% points in the last three months) – and clearly the highest rate of unemployment for the three key age groups.
There has also been a significant decline for people 50+ with employment down 231,000 to 3,781,000 for this age group. The unemployment rate for this age group is up from 6.8% to 8.6% (up 1.8% points in the last three months).
In contrast, people 35-49 have not been impacted by the labour market changes. Employment for people 35-49 is up 25,000 to 4,786,000. Unemployment in this age group is down significantly from 9.1% to 7% - a decline of 2.1% points since February.
Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
