Roy Morgan Research
November 01, 2023

Black Friday sales tipped to buck Christmas slowdown trend

Topic: ARA - Roy Morgan
Finding No: 9371
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Despite an expected softening in the broader pre-Christmas spending period, the popularity of Black Friday is set to continue, giving retailers a much-needed boost to the holiday shopping season.

Research by the Australian Retailers Association, in partnership with Roy Morgan, reveals shoppers are tipped to spend $6.36 billion across the four-day Black Friday/Cyber Monday weekend (November 24 – 27) – up 3.0% from last year.

It is expected many Aussie shoppers will use the sales extravaganza to purchase gifts for Christmas.

ARA CEO Paul Zahra said Black Friday continues to cement its status as a marquee retail event, even amid a tumultuous economic outlook.

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“While projections are looking somewhat flat for the pre-Christmas period, retailers will be pleased that the Black Friday weekend sales event appears set to buck this trend,” he said.

“The Black Friday sales are the biggest pre-Christmas event on the retail calendar and its popularity only continues to grow in Australia.

“Similar to Halloween, Black Friday started off as an American shopping tradition, but has become a global phenomenon, with millions of Aussies set to take part again this year.”

Mr Zahra said the Black Friday sales event is the perfect time for bargain-driven shoppers to get ahead of the Christmas rush and have their gift delivered in time for the big day.

“The event is renowned for having the biggest pre-Christmas bargains and this year will be no different. We’re expecting significant traffic in-store and online, with sales to reach $6.36 billion this year – an increase of $188 million on 2022,” Mr Zahra added.

“More and more consumers are being budget-conscious in light of the cost-of-living crisis, so the Black Friday sales are an ideal time to grab a bargain and save some unnecessary stress the weeks before Christmas.”

Broader pre-Christmas spending in 2023 is tipped to edge in line with last year’s results as shoppers increasingly tighten their budgets in wake of the cost-of-living crisis.

Provisional forecasts by the Australian Retailers Association (ARA), in conjunction with Roy Morgan, predict $66.8 billion will be spent in the November to December 24 Christmas trading period- broadly in line with last year (up slightly by 0.1% or $74,000).

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About the Australian Retailers Association (ARA)

The Australian Retailers Association (ARA) is the oldest, largest and most diverse national retail body, representing a $420 billion sector that employs 1.4 million Australians and is the largest private sector employer in the country. As Australia’s peak retail body, representing more than 120,000 retail shop fronts and online stores, the ARA informs, advocates, educates, protects and unifies our independent, national and international retail community. To learn more about ARA’s exclusive member benefits and more, visit

About Roy Morgan

Roy Morgan is Australia’s largest independent Australian research company, with offices in each state, as well as in the U.S. and U.K. A full-service research organisation, Roy Morgan has over 80 years’ experience collecting objective, independent information on consumers. To learn more visit

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size Percentage Estimate
40% – 60% 25% or 75% 10% or 90% 5% or 95%
1,000 ±3.0 ±2.7 ±1.9 ±1.3
5,000 ±1.4 ±1.2 ±0.8 ±0.6
7,500 ±1.1 ±1.0 ±0.7 ±0.5
10,000 ±1.0 ±0.9 ±0.6 ±0.4
20,000 ±0.7 ±0.6 ±0.4 ±0.3
50,000 ±0.4 ±0.4 ±0.3 ±0.2
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