L-NP Coalition support up marginally in the last week, ALP and One Nation both down slightly

In the last week as debate circled about changes to capital gains taxes the Roy Morgan Poll shows primary support for the L-NP Coalition up 0.5% to 24%, ALP down 1% to 31% and One Nation down 1% to 20.5%. Support for the Greens was at 12.5%, and Independents/Other Parties were up 1.5% to 12% according to the latest Roy Morgan survey conducted from February 16-22, 2026, with a representative Australia-wide cross-section of 1,649 electors.

On a two-party preferred basis, the ALP on 54.5% (down 0.5% from February 13-16, 2026 – the days immediately after the leadership change) is ahead of the Coalition on 44.5% (up 0.5%). The distribution of preferences will be more important than ever at the next Federal Election and when preferences from this week’s Roy Morgan survey are allocated based on how Australians voted at the 2025 Federal Election the two-party preferred result is slightly closer than the respondent allocated preferences with the ALP on 54% leading the L-NP Coalition on 46%.

If a Federal Election were held now the ALP would be easily returned to Government with a similar majority.

Roy Morgan Interviewing in February 2026: Primary Vote & Two-Party Preferred

*Interviewing dates of Australian electors aged 18+: February 2-8, 2026: (n=1,584); February 9-13, 2026: (n=1,216); February 13-16, 2026: (n=526), February 16-22, 2026: (n=1,649 electors).

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating down 6pts to 72 – nearly 30pts below the neutral level of 100 – only 29.5% of electors say the country is ‘going in the right direction’

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating dropped 6 points to 72. Despite positive economic indicators in the last week with ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence increasing 3.1 points to 80.2, and ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations dropping 0.3% to 5.2%, social and cultural turmoil including the aftermath of the Bondi terrorist attack, protests against Israeli President Isaac Herzog, the rise of One Nation on the back of anti-immigration rhetoric, and anti-Islamic comments by One Nation Leader Pauline Hanson led a rising majority of 57.5% (up 2.5%) of Australians to say the country is ‘going in the wrong direction’ compared to only 29.5% (down 3.5%) that say the country is ‘going in the right direction’.

The latest Roy Morgan survey is based on interviewing a representative cross-section of 1,649 Australian electors over the last few days of February 16-22, 2026. Of all electors surveyed last week, 6% (down 1%) can’t say who they would vote for. When comparing different polls, it is always important to make sure to take note of the dates when the polls are conducted to undertake a proper comparison between two polls.

Further details will be released in Roy Morgan’s weekly video update presented by Roy Morgan Chief Executive Officer Michele Levine.

For detailed analysis such as by States, capital cities/country areas, age, gender, occupation, and education contact Julian McCrann on (03) 9224 5365 or email julian.mccrann@roymorgan.com.

About Roy Morgan

Roy Morgan is Australia’s largest independent Australian research company, with offices in each state, as well as in the U.S. and U.K. A full-service research organisation, Roy Morgan has over 80 years’ experience collecting objective, independent information on consumers.