Swing to ALP and L-NP Coalition this week as new leader Matt Canavan takes charge of the Nationals

In the last week ALP primary support is up 2% to 28.5%, and the L-NP Coalition 24% (up 1.5%) while One Nation 22.5% (down 1%), and the Greens 12.5% (down 2%) both fell and 12.5% (down 0.5% points) supported Other Parties/Independents according to the Roy Morgan survey conducted from March 9-15, 2026, with a representative Australia-wide cross-section of 1,654 electors.

On Tuesday last week former Nationals leader David Littleproud suddenly announced his intention to resign immediately – although he intends to stay in Parliament. Senator Matt Canavan was subsequently elected as the new leader of the Nationals the next day – and the immediate impact has been positive after Canavan criticised One Nation Leader Pauline Hanson in his first public remarks as leader.

Primary support for the Coalition was up 1.5% to 24% and the increase was driven by the rise for Nationals, up 1% to 3.5% (and One Nation dropped 1%), while the Liberals increased slightly, up 0.5% to 20.5%.

The distribution of preferences at the next Federal Election will be more important than ever.

On a two-party preferred basis based on how electors said they would ’vote’ their preferences ALP 54% (down 0.5% points) is well ahead of the L-NP 46% (up 0.5% points).

However, when preferences are allocated based on how Australians voted at the 2025 Federal Election, ALP 52% (down1% point) leads the L-NP 48% (up 1% point) – a smaller ALP lead. However, if a Federal Election were held now the ALP would be returned to Government with a clear majority under either method.

Roy Morgan Interviewing in February and March 2026: Primary Vote & Two-Party Preferred

*Interviewing dates of Australian electors aged 18+: February 16-22, 2026: (n=1,649 electors);
February 23 – March 1, 2026: (n=1,554), March 2-8, 2026 (n=1,532); March 9-15, 2026 (n=1,654 electors).

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating drops 2.5 points to 65 – 35pts below the neutral level of 100 – only 25.5% of electors say the country is ‘going in the right direction’

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating dropped 2.5pts to just 65 as the US and Israel attacks against Iran continued and Iran retaliated against US allies in the Middle East.

A rising majority of 60.5% (up 1.5% points) of Australians to say the country is ‘going in the wrong direction’ compared to only 25.5% (down 1% point) that say the country is ‘going in the right direction’.

The latest Roy Morgan survey is based on interviewing a representative cross-section of 1,654 Australian electors over the last few days of March 9-15, 2026. Of all electors surveyed last week, 6% (unchanged) can’t say who they would vote for. When comparing different polls, it is always important to make sure to take note of the dates when the polls are conducted to undertake a proper comparison between two polls.

Further details will be released in Roy Morgan’s weekly video update presented by Roy Morgan Chief Executive Officer Michele Levine.

For detailed analysis such as by States, capital cities/country areas, age, gender, occupation, and education contact Julian McCrann on (03) 9224 5365 or email julian.mccrann@roymorgan.com.

About Roy Morgan

Roy Morgan is Australia’s largest independent Australian research company, with offices in each state, as well as in the U.S. and U.K. A full-service research organisation, Roy Morgan has over 80 years’ experience collecting objective, independent information on consumers.