Albanese Government two-party preferred lead cut as One Nation celebrates historic by-election victory in Farrer

In the last week ALP primary support was up 1% to 30.5%, L-NP Coalition support increased 1% to 25% - Liberals 21% (unchanged) and Nationals 4% (up 1%), One Nation was virtually unchanged on 22%, Greens down 1.5% to 11.5%, and Independents/ Other Parties down 1% to 11% according to the Roy Morgan survey conducted from May 4-10, 2026, with a representative Australia-wide cross-section of 1,605 electors.

On a two-party preferred basis (based on how electors said they’d ’vote’ their preferences) ALP 53.5% (down 1%) is ahead of L-NP 46.5% (up 1%). When preferences are allocated based on how Australians voted at the 2025 Federal Election, ALP 52.5% (down 0.5%) leads L-NP 47.5% (up 0.5%).

ALP has a large two-party preferred lead among women, L-NP Coalition now leads amongst men

Analysis by gender shows the ALP leading strongly amongst women on a two-party preferred basis:
ALP 58.5% (up 2% points) cf. L-NP 41.5% (down 2% points).

The L-NP Coalition has gained support amongst men and is now in the lead on a two-party preferred basis: L-NP 52% (up 4.5% points cf. ALP 48% (down 4.5% points).

If a Federal Election were held now the ALP would be returned to Government with a clear majority under either method.

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating of 65 – is 35 points below the neutral level of 100: Only 25% of electors say the country is ‘going in the right direction’

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating dropped 2.5pts to 65 this week. A large majority of Australians say the country is ‘going in the wrong direction’, 60% (up 1% point). Only 25% (down 1.5% points) say the country is ‘going in the right direction’.

The low Government Confidence comes as concerns about fuel shortages and rising petrol and diesel prices persist in Australia, and the continuing concerns about the fragile ceasefire between the United States and Iran which risks causing further problems for Australia’s energy supplies over the next few weeks and months.

There remain considerable differences in the Government Confidence Rating by party. Government Confidence among ALP supporters has increased 9 points to 129 this week, but for supporters of all other parties, is below the neutral level of 100.

Greens supporters have Government Confidence of 81.5 (unchanged from a week ago), above L-NP Coalition supporters on 33 (down 14.5pts), supporters of Independents/ Other Parties have Government Confidence of 60 (down 3.5pts) and One Nation supporters have a Government Confidence Rating of just 10.5 (down 1.5pts).

Roy Morgan Interviewing in April & May 2026: Primary Vote & Two-Party Preferred

*Interviewing dates of Australian electors aged 18+: April 13-19, 2026 (n=1,620); April 20-26, 2026 (n=1,587);
April 27 – May 3, 2026 (n=1,681) and May 4-10, 2026 (n1,605).

ALP leads among Australians aged under 65, Coalition leads for people aged 65+

Analysis of voting patterns by age shows clear trends – on a two-party preferred basis, ALP support is strongest among those aged under 50, while the L-NP Coalition is strongest among those aged 65+.

Among people aged 18-34 the ALP has a commanding two-party preferred lead: ALP 65% cf. L-NP 35% - and this is built on the combined primary support of the ALP (31%) and the Greens (23%).

For people aged 35-49, those most likely to have a mortgage and a young family, the ALP has a large two-party preferred lead: ALP 56.5% cf. L-NP 43.5%. Primary support for the ALP (29.5%) is clearly ahead of both the One Nation (22.5%) and the L-NP Coalition (20%).

For people aged 50-64 the ALP leads narrowly: ALP 52.5% cf. L-NP 47.5%. Primary support in this age group is close between the ALP (30%), One Nation (26.5%) and the L-NP Coalition (25%).

For people aged 65+, the L-NP Coalition leads clearly on a two-party preferred basis: L-NP 59% cf. ALP 41%, built on large primary support for the L-NP Coalition on 37.5% well ahead of the ALP on 31%.

Of all electors surveyed last week, 6.5% (up 1.5%) can’t say who they would vote for. When comparing different polls, it is always important to make sure to take note of the dates when the polls are conducted to undertake a proper comparison between two polls.

Roy Morgan Interviewing for May 4-10, 2026: By Gender & Age

*Interviewing dates of Australian electors aged 18+: May 4-10, 2026 (n=1,605).

Further details will be released in Roy Morgan’s weekly video update presented by Roy Morgan Chief Executive Officer Michele Levine.

For detailed analysis such as by States, capital cities/country areas, age, gender, occupation, and education contact Julian McCrann on (03) 9224 5365 or email julian.mccrann@roymorgan.com.

About Roy Morgan

Roy Morgan is Australia’s largest independent Australian research company, with offices in each state, as well as in the U.S. and U.K. A full-service research organisation, Roy Morgan has over 80 years’ experience collecting objective, independent information on consumers.