ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations were at 5.8% in late June – down 0.5% points from the month of May
The weekly ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations declined sharply in the month of May and have continued this downward trend so far during June and are at 5.8% for the week of June 15-21, 2026, down 0.5% points from the month of May.
The latest weekly reading is now below the average for Inflation Expectations over the first 24 weeks of 2026 of 6.1%. A look at monthly Inflation Expectations for May 2026 shows the measure at 6.3% for the month – down 0.7% points from the prior month of April, returning to its level in March, also 6.3%.
Inflation Expectations spiked to a record weekly high of 7.3% (March 23-29, 2026) and record monthly high of 7% for April 2026 following the United States and Israel attack on Iran but have dropped significantly over the last two months as a ceasefire was called in the conflict. In addition, the latest information on weekly Inflation Expectations is available to view each week in the Roy Morgan Weekly Update video on YouTube.
Monthly Inflation Expectations Index long-term trend – Expected Annual Inflation in next 2 years
Source: Roy Morgan Single Source: Interviewing an average of 4,900 Australians aged 14+ per month (April 2010 – May 2026).
Average retail petrol prices were at record highs in March, but have dropped by over 80 cents since
Average retail petrol prices hit a record high of $2.53 per litre in late March, but dropped rapidly during April, averaging $2.18 per litre, and fell further in in May averaging $1.84 per litre and down by 70 cents per litre (-27.7%) by the end of the month of May at a price of $1.83 per litre.
Since May ended, average retail petrol prices have dropped even further during June and are now at $1.66 per litre in late June, the equal lowest price for nearly four years since September 2022.
The Albanese Government’s decision to cut the fuel excise in half, cutting the tax by over 26 cents per litre, at the end of March clearly helped to lower the price of petrol significantly during the months of April, May, and June, although the full cut to the excise is due to finish at the end of the month of June.
Australian average retail petrol prices (cents per litre) weekly: 2021 – 2026
Source: Australian Institute of Petroleum (AIP) weekly reports: https://www.aip.com.au/pricing/weekly-prices-reports.
The latest official ABS quarterly annual CPI estimate at 4.2% for the year to April 2026 is now significantly above the Reserve Bank’s preferred target range of 2-3% over the course of the economic cycle. Official estimates of inflation have more than doubled since June 2025 (1.9%).
The increase in official estimates of inflation led to the Reserve Bank’s decision to commence a cycle of increases by raising interest rates at its first three meetings of 2026 in February (+0.25%), March (+0.25%), and May (+0.25% to 4.35%), but left interest rates unchanged at their most recent meeting in mid-June.
The next ABS Monthly CPI estimate for May 2026 is due to be released on Wednesday.
Inflation Expectations were highest in Tasmania and Queensland for the fourth straight month
A look at Monthly Inflation Expectations on a State-based level for May shows decreases in all six States as Inflation Expectations eased after peaking during March and April.
Inflation Expectations were highest in Queensland, down 0.5% points to 7.0%, just ahead of Tasmania at 6.8%, down 1% point from a month ago.
Inflation Expectations in Western Australia eased 0.2% points to 6.6%, and in South Australia were down 0.4% points to 6.2%. Inflation Expectations plunged in the two largest States of Victoria, down 0.7% points to 6.1%, and by 0.9% points to 6.0% in New South Wales – which now has the lowest Inflation Expectations.
Inflation Expectations in Country Areas dropped 0.3% points to 7% in May, and in Capital Cities dropped by 0.8% points to 6%.
Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine says Inflation Expectations have subsided significantly since reaching a record high of 7.3% in late March and dropped to 6.3% for the month of May, and are now down at 5.8% in late June – down 1.5% points from late March:
“ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations in Australia increased sharply after the United States and Israel attacked Iran on the last day of February, increasing 1% point in the month of March to 6.3%, and up a further 0.7% points to a record monthly high of 7% for April.
“However, Inflation Expectations have declined since peaking in late March and April. Inflation Expectations for the month of May were at 6.3% (down 0.7% points from a month ago), and the latest weekly rating is now 5.8% in late June – down 1.5% points from the peak in late March.
“Inflation Expectations dropped after the Albanese Government cut the fuel excise in half in the first week of April, and average retail petrol prices in late June are now at $1.66 per litre, down by over 85 cents (-41.3%) since reaching a peak in late March at a record high of $2.53 per litre.
“The cut to the fuel excise is set to be partly wound back at the end of June and ended fully by early August – which will lead to higher petrol prices in the weeks and months ahead.
“Even before the conflict in the Middle East, official estimates of inflation were increasing, from a low of 1.9% in June 2025, up to 3.7% in February 2026, and a high of 4.6% in March 2026. The good news is that since peaking in late March, official inflation eased in April 2026 to 4.2%, reflecting the rapid falls in energy prices as the ceasefire in the Middle East took hold.
“The rise in inflationary pressures in the broader economy since the middle of last year led to the Reserve Bank’s decision to raise interest rates by +0.25% in early February, by +0.25% in mid-March, and by another +0.25% to 4.35% in early May – wiping out last year’s rate cuts.
“The sharp fall in Inflation Expectations since late March, down by 1.5% points to 5.8% this week, shows that concerns about inflation are moderating and the pressure on the Reserve Bank to raise interest rates again has declined.
“These factors no doubt contributed to the Reserve Bank’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged at 4.35% at their most recent meeting in mid-June.”
See below for a comprehensive list of RBA interest rate changes during the time-period charted above.
The data for the Inflation Expectations series is drawn from the Roy Morgan Single Source which has interviewed an average of around 5,300 Australians aged 14+ per month over the last decade from June 2016 – May 2026 and includes interviews with 4,104 Australians aged 14+ in May 2026.
For comments and information about Roy Morgan’s Inflation Expectations data, please contact:
Roy Morgan Enquiries
Office: +61 (3) 9224 5309
askroymorgan@roymorgan.com
About Roy Morgan
Roy Morgan is Australia’s largest independent Australian research company, with offices in each state, as well as in the U.S. and U.K. A full-service research organisation, Roy Morgan has over 80 years’ experience collecting objective, independent information on consumers.
Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
