ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations were at 6.9% in mid-March – jumping 1.6% points from the month of February
The weekly ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations have soared in March following the US and Israeli decision to attack Iran on the last day of February 2026 and are now at 6.9% for the week of March 16-22, 2026, an increase of 1.6% points from the month of February.
Inflation Expectations have averaged 5.7% over the first eleven weeks of 2026. However, a look at monthly Inflation Expectations for February 2026 shows the measure at 5.3% for the month – down 0.2% points from the prior month of January, and 0.4% points below the current average for 2026.
Looking back over the last six months, since mid-September 2025, weekly Inflation Expectations have averaged 5.4% over this extended period. In addition, the latest information on weekly Inflation Expectations is available to view each week in the Roy Morgan Weekly Update video on YouTube.
Monthly Inflation Expectations Index long-term trend – Expected Annual Inflation in next 2 years
Source: Roy Morgan Single Source: Interviewing an average of 4,900 Australians aged 14+ per month (April 2010 – Feb. 2026).
Average retail petrol prices were at $1.69 per litre in February, before rocketing upward in March
During February, average retail petrol prices were below $1.70 per litre at $1.69 per litre and at their lowest for over four years since January 2022 – before the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This was the first month average retail petrol prices were below $1.70 per litre for over three years since September 2022.
However, since hitting a low point of $1.66 per litre in mid-February, average retail petrol prices have increased by over 70 cents per litre – an increase of over 40% in just over a month to $2.38 this week.
Australian average retail petrol prices (cents per litre) weekly: 2021 – 2026
Source: Australian Institute of Petroleum (AIP) weekly reports: https://www.aip.com.au/pricing/weekly-prices-reports.
The latest official ABS quarterly annual CPI estimate at 3.8% for the year to January 2026 is now above the Reserve Bank’s preferred target range of 2-3% over the course of the economic cycle. Official estimates of inflation have doubled since June 2025 (1.9%).
The increase in official estimates of inflation led to the Reserve Bank’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged for its last three meetings in October, November and December 2025, and eventually commence a cycle of increases by raising interest rates at its first meeting of 2026 early in February and again at its second meeting for the year last week in mid-March.
The next ABS Monthly CPI estimate for February 2026 is due to be released on Wednesday.
Inflation Expectations were highest in Tasmania and Queensland, above 5.5%
A look at Monthly Inflation Expectations on a State-based level for February shows increases in three States – Tasmania, Queensland, and South Australia, but larger declines in New South Wales, Victoria, and Western Australia driving the overall monthly result down.
Inflation Expectations in Tasmania increased marginally by 0.1% to 6.0% - and once again the highest of any State, up 0.2% to 5.6% in Queensland, and up 0.1% to 5.4% in South Australia.
However, the large declines in Western Australia, down by 0.4% to 5.4%, in New South Wales, down by 0.3% to 5.2%, and in Victoria, down by 0.3% to 5.1%.
Inflation Expectations in Country Areas dropped 0.4% points to 5.5% in February, and in Capital Cities was down by 0.1% points to 5.2%
Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine says weekly Inflation Expectations have rocketed up in the last few weeks, increasing by 1.6% points from the monthly figure of 5.3% in February to 6.9% in mid-March:
“ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations in Australia have increased sharply in the past few weeks – increasing by 1.6% points from the month of February in only a few weeks after the United States and Israel began attacking Iran on the last day of February.
“Since mid-February average retail petrol prices have spiked to a new record high of $2.38 per litre – up by over 70 cents per litre in a few weeks (+43.3%).
“The spike in average retail petrol prices is particularly shocking given average retail petrol prices in February ($1.69 per litre) were the lowest for over four years since January 2022 ($1.65) – the month before the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
“Even before the recent rapid increase in the average retail petrol price, official estimates of inflation in Australia were rapidly increasing, from a low of 1.9% in June 2025, up to 2.8% in July 2025, and now 3.8% in January 2026.
“The sharp rise in inflationary pressures in the broader economy during the last few months of 2025 – increasing by 1.9% points since June – led to the Reserve Bank’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged in late 2025 and now increase interest rates by +0.25% to 3.85% in early February, and by another +0.25% to 4.1% at its second meeting last week.
“Looking forward, the rapid spike in energy prices in recent weeks has led to a sharp rise in Inflation Expectations to record highs and threatens a significant economic slowdown in the next few months if these high prices persist.”
The data for the Inflation Expectations series is drawn from the Roy Morgan Single Source which has interviewed an average of around 5,300 Australians aged 14+ per month over the last decade from March 2016 – February 2026 and includes interviews with 4,083 Australians aged 14+ in February 2026.
For comments and information about Roy Morgan’s Inflation Expectations data, please contact:
Roy Morgan Enquiries
Office: +61 (3) 9224 5309
askroymorgan@roymorgan.com
About Roy Morgan
Roy Morgan is Australia’s largest independent Australian research company, with offices in each state, as well as in the U.S. and U.K. A full-service research organisation, Roy Morgan has over 80 years’ experience collecting objective, independent information on consumers.
Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
