ALP in election-winning position after Pauline Hanson’s comments on monoculturalism cost One Nation support
This week ALP primary support is up 1% to 28%, One Nation down 5.5% to 26%, L-NP Coalition, up 4% to 21.5% - Liberals on 19% (up 4%) and Nationals 2.5% (unchanged), the Greens were down 0.5% to 13%, and Independents/ Other Parties were up 1% at 11.5% according to the Roy Morgan survey conducted from June 22-28, 2026, with a representative Australia-wide cross-section of 1,639 electors.
One Nation’s surge in the polls – with support up six out of seven weeks (up a total of 10% to 31.5%) since the Federal Budget – was reversed last week (down 5.5% to 26%) after Pauline Hanson’s comments on ‘monoculturalism’ at the National Press Club were heavily scrutinised and publicised in the media.
If a Federal Election were held now the ALP would win a narrow majority against either One Nation or the LNP Coalition.
In many electorates at the Election the contest is set to be between the ALP and One Nation. When preferences are allocated for Coalition, Greens, Independent, and Other Party supporters between the ALP and One Nation the Morgan Poll estimates the ALP 53% (up 2%) in front of One Nation 47% (down 2%).
If the contest is between the ALP and L-NP, on a two-party preferred basis (based on how electors said they’d ’vote’ their preferences), the ALP is also ahead – ALP 53.5% (down 0.5%) cf. L-NP 46.5% (up 0.5%). However, when preferences are allocated based on how Australians voted at the 2025 Federal Election the gap is closer, ALP 52.5% (unchanged) leads L-NP 47.5% (unchanged).
The complicated nature of the next Federal Election means there will be contests between the ALP and One Nation, the ALP and L-NP Coalition, One Nation and the L-NP Coalition, and any three of these parties against the Greens, Teal Independents, and other minor parties such as Katter’s Australian Party (KAP).
Roy Morgan will be providing an extensive analysis of the Australia’s 150 Federal Electorates in the next few weeks using the Helix Personas psychographic consumer segmentation and data integration tool which provides unique and incisive insights into the minds of Australian electors.
This week Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating increased 7.5 points to 68.5 – but still over 30 points below the neutral level of 100
This week Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating jumped 7.5 points to 68.5. A large majority of 57% (down 7% points) of Australians say the country is ‘going in the wrong direction’. Only 25.5% (up 0.5% points) say the country is ‘going in the right direction’.
There are considerable differences in the Government Confidence Rating by party. Government Confidence among ALP supporters increased 5.5 points to 133.5. However, for supporters of all other parties, Government Confidence continues to be below the neutral level of 100.
Greens supporters have Government Confidence of 81.5 (up 19.5 points), above L-NP Coalition supporters on 42.5 (down 3.5pts), supporters of Independents/ Other Parties have Government Confidence of 73.5 (up 3.5pts) and One Nation supporters have a Government Confidence Rating of just 15 (up 6pts).
Roy Morgan Interviewing in May & June 2026: Primary Vote & Two-Party Preferred
*Interviewing dates of Australian electors aged 18+: May 25-31, 2026 (n=1,542), June 1-7, 2026 (n=1,631), June 8-14, 2026 (n=1,583), June 15-21, 2026 (n=1,575), June 22-28, 2026 (n=1,639). This week 6.5% (up 1.5%) of those surveyed can’t say who they would vote for.
Further details will be released in Roy Morgan’s weekly video update presented by Roy Morgan Chief Executive Officer Michele Levine.
For detailed analysis such as by States, capital cities/country areas, age, gender, occupation, and education contact Julian McCrann on (03) 9224 5365 or email julian.mccrann@roymorgan.com.
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Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
