One Nation surges into first place for primary support – but the ALP is still favoured to win a two-party preferred majority

In the last week One Nation primary support increased 2.5% to 29.5% and is now clearly ahead of the ALP, down 1% to 26% and the L-NP Coalition, down 2.5% to 17.5% - Liberals on 14.5% (down 3%) and Nationals 3% (up 0.5%). Support for the Greens was up 2% to 15.5%, and Independents/ Other Parties down 1% to 11.5% according to the Roy Morgan survey conducted from June 1-7, 2026, with a representative Australia-wide cross-section of 1,631 electors.

This is the first time in a Roy Morgan Federal Poll that One Nation has been ahead of both the ALP (by 3.5% points) and the L-NP Coalition (by 12% points).

Since the Federal Budget was delivered by Treasurer Jim Chalmers on Tuesday May 12, 2026, primary support for One Nation is up 5% points to 29.5%, ALP support is down 3.5% points to 26%, L-NP Coalition support is down 6.5% points to 17.5%, and Greens support is up 4% points to 15.5%.

In effect, since the Federal Budget, One Nation has gained support at the expense of the L-NP Coalition, and the Greens have gained support at the expense of the ALP.

ALP leads both the L-NP Coalition and One Nation on a two-party preferred basis; but importantly the two-party preferred between the ALP and One Nation is closer

On a two-party preferred basis (based on how electors said they’d ’vote’ their preferences) ALP 56% (up 0.5%) is ahead of L-NP 44% (down 0.5%). When preferences are allocated based on how Australians voted at the 2025 Federal Election, ALP 54% (up 0.5%) leads L-NP 46% (down 0.5%).

In many electorates at the Election the contest is set to be between the ALP and One Nation. When preferences are allocated for Coalition, Greens, Independent, and Other Party supporters between the ALP and One Nation the Morgan Poll estimates the ALP 53.5% leading One Nation 46.5% - the same as a week ago.

The complicated nature of the next Federal Election means there will be contests between the ALP and One Nation, the ALP and L-NP Coalition, One Nation and the L-NP Coalition, and any three of these parties against the Greens, Teal Independents, and other minor parties such as Katter’s Australian Party (KAP).

Roy Morgan will be providing an extensive analysis of the Australia’s 150 Federal Electorates in the next few weeks using the Helix Personas psychographic consumer segmentation and data integration tool which provides unique and incisive insights into the minds of Australian electors.

If a Federal Election were held now the ALP would be returned to Government with a clear majority in any of the above scenarios.

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating plunged 7 points on a week ago to just 61.5 – almost 40 points below the neutral level of 100:

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating plunged 8pts to 61.5 this week. An increasingly large majority of Australians say the country is ‘going in the wrong direction’, 62.5% (up 4% points). Only 24% (down 4% points) say the country is ‘going in the right direction’.

There are considerable differences in the Government Confidence Rating by party. Government Confidence among ALP supporters was down 7 points to a still very high 129.5 this week. However, for supporters of all other parties, Government Confidence continues to be below the neutral level of 100.

Greens supporters have Government Confidence of 74 (down 23.5 points), above L-NP Coalition supporters on 34.5 (down 5pts), supporters of Independents/ Other Parties have Government Confidence of 56.5 (up 2.5pts) and One Nation supporters have a Government Confidence Rating of just 10.5 (down 1.5pts).

Roy Morgan Interviewing in May & June 2026: Primary Vote & Two-Party Preferred

*Interviewing dates of Australian electors aged 18+: May 11-17, 2026 (n=1,668), May 18-24, 2026 (n=1,613),
May 25-31, 2026 (n=1,542) and June 1-7, 2026 (n=1,631).

Further details will be released in Roy Morgan’s weekly video update presented by Roy Morgan Chief Executive Officer Michele Levine.

For detailed analysis such as by States, capital cities/country areas, age, gender, occupation, and education contact Julian McCrann on (03) 9224 5365 or email julian.mccrann@roymorgan.com.

About Roy Morgan

Roy Morgan is Australia’s largest independent Australian research company, with offices in each state, as well as in the U.S. and U.K. A full-service research organisation, Roy Morgan has over 80 years’ experience collecting objective, independent information on consumers.