One Nation leads for second straight week on primary vote, but ALP still favoured to win Federal Election
In the last week One Nation primary support was unchanged at 29.5% and again ahead of the ALP, up 2% to 28% and L-NP Coalition, down 0.5% to 17% - Liberals on 15% (up 0.5%) and Nationals 2% (down 1%). Support for the Greens was down 1.5% to 14%, and Independents/ Other Parties were unchanged at 11.5% according to the Roy Morgan survey conducted from June 8-14, 2026, with a representative Australia-wide cross-section of 1,583 electors.
The big news last week was the unprecedented success of One Nation’s ‘Fire The Liar’ online fundraiser which launched on Wednesday June 10 and has raised over $4 million from around 70,000 donors – an average of around $60 per donor. The campaign tagline is targeting Prime Minister Anthony Albanese.
ALP leads both the L-NP Coalition and One Nation on a two-party preferred basis; but importantly the two-party preferred between the ALP and One Nation is closer
On a two-party preferred basis (based on how electors said they’d ’vote’ their preferences) ALP 54.5% (down 1.5%) is ahead of L-NP 45.5% (up 1.5%). When preferences are allocated based on how Australians voted at the 2025 Federal Election, ALP 54.5% (up 0.5%) leads L-NP 45.5% (down 0.5%).
In many electorates at the Election the contest is set to be between the ALP and One Nation. When preferences are allocated for Coalition, Greens, Independent, and Other Party supporters between the ALP and One Nation the Morgan Poll estimates the ALP 53% (down 0.5%) leading One Nation 47% (up 0.5%).
The complicated nature of the next Federal Election means there will be contests between the ALP and One Nation, the ALP and L-NP Coalition, One Nation and the L-NP Coalition, and any three of these parties against the Greens, Teal Independents, and other minor parties such as Katter’s Australian Party (KAP).
Roy Morgan will be providing an extensive analysis of the Australia’s 150 Federal Electorates in the next few weeks using the Helix Personas psychographic consumer segmentation and data integration tool which provides unique and incisive insights into the minds of Australian electors.
If a Federal Election were held now the ALP would be returned to Government with a clear majority in any of the above scenarios.
This week Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating was virtually unchanged at just 62.5 – almost 40 points below the neutral level of 100:
This week Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating was virtually unchanged at 62.5. A large majority of 64% (up 1.5% points) of Australians say the country is ‘going in the wrong direction’. Only 26.5% (up 2.5% points) say the country is ‘going in the right direction’.
There are considerable differences in the Government Confidence Rating by party. Government Confidence among ALP supporters was unchanged at a very high 129.5. However, for supporters of all other parties, Government Confidence continues to be below the neutral level of 100.
Greens supporters have Government Confidence of 68 (down 6 points), above L-NP Coalition supporters on 35.5 (up 1pt), supporters of Independents/ Other Parties have Government Confidence of 71 (up 14.5pts) and One Nation supporters have a Government Confidence Rating of just 8.5 (down 2pts).
Roy Morgan Interviewing in May & June 2026: Primary Vote & Two-Party Preferred
*Interviewing dates of Australian electors aged 18+: May 18-24, 2026 (n=1,613), May 25-31, 2026 (n=1,542), June 1-7, 2026 (n=1,631) and June 8-14, 2026 (n=1,583). This week 4% (down 0.5%) of those surveyed can’t say who they would vote for.
Further details will be released in Roy Morgan’s weekly video update presented by Roy Morgan Chief Executive Officer Michele Levine.
For detailed analysis such as by States, capital cities/country areas, age, gender, occupation, and education contact Julian McCrann on (03) 9224 5365 or email julian.mccrann@roymorgan.com.
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Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
