ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence up 4.8 points to 91.3 in June

• ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence was up 4.8pts in June to 91.3, back where it was in March. The index is still 16 points lower than its January peak.

• The net proportion of households thinking it’s a good time to buy a major household item (the best retail indicator) rose another 9 points to -11.

• Inflation expectations (2-years ahead) eased from 5.3% to 4.6% in June, back where it was in January before the oil price spike. House price expectations were all but unchanged at 2.5%.

Turning to the detail (see charts on page 4 on the linked PDF):

• The future conditions index, made up of forward-looking questions, lifted from 92.7 to 96.7. The current conditions index lifted 6 points to 83.2.

• Perceptions of current personal financial situations (better or worse off than last year) lifted slightly from -25% to -23% with a plurality of 46% (down 2% points) saying they are now 'worse off' financially than a year ago while just 23% (unchanged) say they are 'better off'.

• Looking forward, a net 10% of respondents expect to be better off this time next year, down 2 points but well off its April low of 3% with 36% (down 2% points) expecting to be 'better off' financially this time next year compared to 26% (unchanged) that expect to be 'worse off'.

• A net 11% think it’s a bad time to buy a major household item, a 9-point improvement, consistent with recovering retail sales, which is created by a plurality of 46% (down 3% points) that say it's a 'bad time to buy' major household items compared to 35% (up 6% points) that say it's a 'good time to buy' major household items.

• Perceptions regarding the economic outlook over the next 12 months lifted from -36% to -23%, its strongest read since February. The 5-year-ahead measure rose 1 point to +3%.

• House price inflation expectations eased from 2.6% to 2.5%, with the range being 1.4% (Wellington) to 3.9% (North Island outside of Auckland and Wellington).

• Two-year-ahead CPI inflation expectations eased from 5.3% to 4.6%, completely a remarkably symmetric sharp drop to be back where they sat December-February before the oil price spike (see charts page 4).

Figure 2 of the linked PDF shows ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence and petrol prices (inverted). There’s no doubt whatsoever about what’s been in the driving seat in recent months (so to speak).