U-turn on ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence – dropping 8.8 points to only 91.3 in March
• ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence fell from 100.1 in February to 91.3 in March in response to the uncertainty brought about by the Middle East conflict.
• The net proportion of households thinking it’s a good time to buy a major household item (the best retail indicator) fell 10 points to -14, back to where it was in October 2025.
• Inflation Expectations (2-years ahead) jumped a full percentage point to 5.7% in March.
Turning to the detail (see charts on page 4 of the attached PDF):
• The future conditions index made up of forward-looking questions fell from 106.9 to 96.7, back to October 2025 levels. The current conditions index fell from 90.0 to 83.1, presumably as petrol price increases bite.
• Net perceptions of current personal financial situations (better or worse off than last year) fell 4 points from -16% to -20% with just 24% (down 3% points) of respondents saying they are 'better off' financially than a year ago compared to a rising 44% (up 1% point) who say they are 'worse off', still slightly above the August 2025 level of -24%.
• Looking forward, a net 10% of respondents expect to be better off this time next year, down 10 points from a month ago with 38% (down 4% points) expecting to be 'better off' financially this time next year compared to 28% (up 6% points) who expect to be 'worse off'.
• A net 14% think it’s a bad time to buy a major household item, with only 31% (down 7% points) saying now is a 'good time to buy' major household items compared to 45% (up 3% points) who say it's a 'bad time to buy', solidly back in negative territory where it’s spent all but one month in the past four years.
• Perceptions regarding the economic outlook over the next 12 months was the big mover, down 17 points to -25%. The 5-year-ahead measure fell 2 points to +5%.
• House price inflation expectations lifted slightly from 3.6% to 3.8%.
• Two-year-ahead CPI inflation expectations jumped 1.0 ppt to 5.7%.
Figure 2 in the attached PDF shows how ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence deteriorated as the month of March proceeded, as the situation in the Middle East escalated and both fuel prices and mortgage rates increased.
Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
