ALP maintains election-winning lead; L-NP Coalition overtake One Nation on primary vote

This week ALP primary support is unchanged at 27.5%, L-NP Coalition, up 3% to 23% - Liberals 20.5% (up 3%) and Nationals 2.5% (unchanged), One Nation down 5.5% to 22.5%, Greens up 1.5% to 14%, and Independents/ Other Parties up 1% to 13% according to the Roy Morgan Poll conducted from July 13-19, 2026, with a representative Australia-wide cross-section of 1,679 electors.

One Nation Leader Pauline Hanson’s two-week trip to Europe has not delivered a political benefit for One Nation. The trip included speaking at the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) Great Britain in London, a controversial interview with British right-wing figure Tommy Robinson, and a short holiday in Italy with mining magnate Gina Rinehart – Australia’s richest person and a key backer of One Nation.

Hanson’s trip faced criticism from Prime Minister Anthony Albanese who said: “I find it astonishing that Pauline Hanson has travelled overseas in order to denigrate and talk down Australia,” and Opposition Leader Angus Taylor said Hanson had questions to answer about controversial One Nation Senator Malcolm Roberts “The question here for Pauline Hanson is: what is she going to do about it? She’s over in Italy right now,”.

If a Federal Election were held now the ALP would win a large majority against either One Nation or the L-NP Coalition

In many electorates at the Election the contest is set to be between the ALP and One Nation. When preferences are allocated for Coalition, Greens, Independent, and Other Party supporters between the ALP and One Nation, Roy Morgan estimates the ALP 55% (up 2.5%) in front of One Nation 45% (down 2.5%).

If the contest is between the ALP and L-NP, on a two-party preferred basis (based on how electors said they’d ’vote’ their preferences), the ALP is also ahead – ALP 56% (up 2%) cf. L-NP 44% (down 2%). However, when preferences are allocated based on how Australians voted at the 2025 Federal Election the gap is closer, ALP 53% (up 0.5%) leads L-NP 47% (down 0.5%).

The complicated nature of the next Federal Election means there will be contests between the ALP and One Nation, the ALP and L-NP Coalition, One Nation and the L-NP Coalition, and any three of these parties against the Greens, Teal Independents, and other minor parties such as Katter’s Australian Party (KAP).

Roy Morgan will be providing an extensive analysis of the Australia’s 150 Federal Electorates in the next few weeks using the Helix Personas psychographic consumer segmentation and data integration tool which provides unique and incisive insights into the minds of Australian electors.

This week Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating jumps 5.5pts to 66.5 – still more than 30 points below the neutral level of 100

This week Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating increased 5.5 points to 66.5. A large, albeit reduced, majority of Australians, 59.5% (down 3% points), say the country is ‘going in the wrong direction’. Only 26% (up 2.5% points) say the country is ‘going in the right direction’.

There are considerable differences in the Government Confidence Rating by party. Government Confidence among ALP supporters was up 5.5 points to 133. However, for supporters of all other parties, Government Confidence continues to be below the neutral level of 100.

Greens supporters have Government Confidence of 79 (up 1 point), above L-NP Coalition supporters on 34.5 (down 0.5pts), supporters of Independents/ Other Parties have Government Confidence of 62 (up 6.5pts) and One Nation supporters have a Government Confidence Rating of just 15.5 (up 4pts).

Roy Morgan Interviewing in June & July 2026: Primary Vote & Two-Party Preferred

*Interviewing dates of Australian electors aged 18+: June 15-21, 2026 (n=1,575), June 22-28, 2026 (n=1,639), June 28 – July 5, 2026 (n=1,584), July 6-12, 2026 (n=1,612), July 13-19, 2026 (n=1,679). This week 5% (down 1.5%) of those surveyed can’t say who they would vote for.

Further details will be released in Roy Morgan’s weekly video update presented by Roy Morgan Chief Executive Officer Michele Levine.

For detailed analysis such as by States, capital cities/country areas, age, gender, occupation, and education contact Julian McCrann on (03) 9224 5365 or email julian.mccrann@roymorgan.com.

About Roy Morgan

Roy Morgan is Australia’s largest independent Australian research company, with offices in each state, as well as in the U.S. and U.K. A full-service research organisation, Roy Morgan has over 80 years’ experience collecting objective, independent information on consumers.