ALP maintains election-winning lead; One Nation overtake the L-NP Coalition on primary vote
This week ALP primary support is unchanged at 27.5%, One Nation up 3% to 25.5%, L-NP Coalition, down 1% to 22% - Liberals 18.5% (down 2%) and Nationals 3.5% (up 1%), Greens unchanged at 14%, and Independents/ Other Parties down 2% to 11% according to the Roy Morgan Poll conducted from July 20-26, 2026, with a representative Australia-wide cross-section of 1,643 electors.
Support for One Nation has ‘bounced back’ this week to 25.5% - driven by increases in New South Wales (+3.5%), Victoria (+4%), and Queensland (+4%). However, the level of support remains below the highs reached in June of between 26% and 31%.
Early last week One Nation Leader Pauline Hanson returned to Australia after a two-week overseas trip to Europe and launched the campaign of One Nation candidate Luke Herdegen for the Western Australian seat of Secret Harbor. The by-election for the seat is set for the end of August.
If a Federal Election were held now the ALP would win a majority against either One Nation or the L-NP Coalition
In many electorates at the Election the contest is set to be between the ALP and One Nation. When preferences are allocated for Coalition, Greens, Independent, and Other Party supporters between the ALP and One Nation, Roy Morgan estimates the ALP 53.5% (down 1.5%) in front of One Nation 46.5% (up 1.5%).
If the contest is between the ALP and L-NP, on a two-party preferred basis (based on how electors said they’d ’vote’ their preferences), the ALP is also ahead – ALP 54% (down 2%) cf. L-NP 46% (up 2%). However, when preferences are allocated based on how Australians voted at the 2025 Federal Election the gap is closer, ALP 52.5% (down 0.5%) leads L-NP 47.5% (up 0.5%).
The complicated nature of the next Federal Election means there will be contests between the ALP and One Nation, the ALP and L-NP Coalition, One Nation and the L-NP Coalition, and any three of these parties against the Greens, Teal Independents, and other minor parties such as Katter’s Australian Party (KAP).
Roy Morgan will be providing an extensive analysis of the Australia’s 150 Federal Electorates in the next few weeks using the Helix Personas psychographic consumer segmentation and data integration tool which provides unique and incisive insights into the minds of Australian electors.
This week Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating increased 2.5pts to 69 – however, still more than 30 points below the neutral level of 100
This week Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating increased 2.5 points to 69. A large, albeit reduced, majority of Australians, 58%, say the country is ‘going in the wrong direction’ (down 1.5% points). Only 27% (up 1% point) say the country is ‘going in the right direction’.
There are considerable differences in the Government Confidence Rating by party. Government Confidence among ALP supporters is 129.5 (down 3.5 points). However, for supporters of all other parties, Government Confidence continues to be below the neutral level of 100.
Greens supporters have Government Confidence of 86.5 (up 7.5 points), above L-NP Coalition supporters on 42.5 (up 8pts), supporters of Independents/ Other Parties have Government Confidence of 73 (up 11pts) and One Nation supporters have a Government Confidence Rating of just 13.5 (down 2pts).
Roy Morgan Interviewing in June & July 2026: Primary Vote & Two-Party Preferred
*Interviewing dates of Australian electors aged 18+: `June 22-28, 2026 (n=1,639), June 28 – July 5, 2026 (n=1,584), July 6-12, 2026 (n=1,612), July 13-19, 2026 (n=1,679), July 20-26, 2026 (n=1,643). This week 6% (up 1%) of those surveyed can’t say who they would vote for.
Further details will be released in Roy Morgan’s weekly video update presented by Roy Morgan Chief Executive Officer Michele Levine.
For detailed analysis such as by States, capital cities/country areas, age, gender, occupation, and education contact Julian McCrann on (03) 9224 5365 or email julian.mccrann@roymorgan.com.
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Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
