Victorian State Voting Intention: Voter concerns about potential ALP, Coalition, or a One Nation Government in Victoria after November’s State Election

As part of Roy Morgan’s special SMS Poll on Victorian voting intentions, Roy Morgan asked electors to tell us their concerns about a potentially re-elected ALP Government led by Premier Ben Carroll, a potential L-NP Coalition Government led by Jess Wilson, and a potential One Nation Government led by Warren Pickering.

The key concerns about a potentially re-elected ALP Government led by Ben Carroll are ‘Corruption and Integrity Failures’, ‘Financial Mismanagement & State Debt’, ‘Continuation of Andrews/Allan era problems’, ‘Union Influence & Factional Control’, and ‘Crime, Law & Order Concerns’. Full details below.

When it comes to a Coalition Government, Victorians are concerned about ‘Cuts to Public Services & Austerity’, ‘Internal Infighting, Instability & Lack of Cohesion’, ‘Lack of Policies/ No Clear Plan’, ‘Inexperience of Jess Wilson & Team’, and ‘Right-Wing Shift/One Nation Influence’.

The top concerns Victorians report about a One Nation Government are ‘Racism, Xenophobia & Discrimination’, ‘Lack of Policies/ No Governing Capability’, ‘Conspiracy Theories & Extremism’, ‘Inexperience of Leader & Candidates’, and ‘Division, Hate & Social Cohesion Breakdown’.

This special SMS Roy Morgan Poll was conducted from August 5-7, 2026, with a representative Victoria-wide cross-section of 2,084 electors.

Key concerns about a potentially re-elected ALP Government led by Ben Carroll are ‘Corruption and Integrity Failures’, ‘Financial Mismanagement & State Debt’, ‘Continuation of Andrews/Allan era problems’, ‘Union Influence & Factional Control’, and ‘Crime, Law & Order Concerns’

Respondents were asked: “What, if anything, would concern you about a re-elected ALP Government led by Ben Carroll?”

Two representative responses that illustrate the dominant tone: “Corruption, incompetence, inability to govern, cover ups.” “Budget overspending continuing, no reduction in big build project spending and corruption.”

Key themes about a potential re-elected ALP Government (with % share)

1. Corruption & Integrity Failures: 38%

This is overwhelmingly the dominant theme. Includes: CFMEU influence, Big Build corruption, cover‑ups, lack of transparency, secret deals, union lawlessness, dishonesty, “tainted government”, “corrupt to the core”.

A selection of verbatim responses from respondents:

"Corruption."

"Continued corruption."

"Corruption and lies."

"Entrenched corruption."

"Complacency and corruption."

"Corruption not tackled."

"Need to improve transparency with large economic projects."

"The significant history of corruption over recent years."

2. Financial Mismanagement & State Debt: 26%

Mentions: budget blowouts, overspending, “bankruptcy”, debt crisis, waste, poor economic management, cost overruns, “Victoria is broke”, “fiscal incompetence”.

A selection of verbatim responses from respondents:

"Bankruptcy."

"Budget blowouts."

"Debt."

"Absolutely disastrous. How much further down the gurgler financially can we go?"

"Corrupt, can’t manage money or government spending."

"Need for financial responsibility."

"Overspending, putting Victoria in further debt."

"Who pays off the debt accumulated."

3. Continuation of Andrews/Allan Era Problems: 18%

Includes: “same team”, “same mess”, “same policies”, “he was in the room”, “no change”, “Labor has been in too long”, “legacy of Andrews”.

A selection of verbatim responses from respondents:

"Because changing the leader would not change the ALP."

"Continuation of what we have now."

"Following in Jacinta Allans footsteps."

"More of the same."

"Same horse different rider."

"Same party with a different leader."

"Nothing would change."

"Ben has been around the whole time with the last two ALP premiers."

4. Union Influence & Factional Control: 14%

CFMEU dominance, factional warfare, inability to control unions, “union corruption”, “held hostage by factions”, “Labor beholden to union movement”.

A selection of verbatim responses from respondents:

"Being controlled by unions."

"CFMEU."

"CFMEU continued corruption."

"Failure to act on union corruption."

"Union control and corruption history."

"Ability to control factions and unions."

"Their alliance with the unions."

"Need to follow through with the Royal Commission into construction corruption."

5. Crime, Law & Order Concerns: 11%

Mentions: rising crime, weak bail laws, youth offending, “lawlessness”, lack of punishment, policing issues.

A selection of verbatim responses from respondents:

"Continued crime rate."

"Handling crime."

"Crime, debt, taxes."

"More crime and corruption."

"Crime is at an all-time high."

"No change to criminal behaviour in the state."

"Worsening organised youth crime."

"Need to do a massive amount more on fixing youth crime."

6. Cost of Living & Tax Burden: 10%

Includes: higher taxes, land tax anger, affordability issues, inflation, “painful increase in cost of living”.

A selection of verbatim responses from respondents:

"A rubbish and painful increase in cost of living."

"Higher taxes."

"Debt + TAX."

"More taxes less services."

"Tax and housing price increase."

"More debt. More taxes."

"Everything would concern me. More taxes more pain for people."

"They are taxing Victorians highly."

7. Infrastructure Spending / Big Build Issues: 9%

Cost blowouts, mismanagement, SRL concerns, unwanted projects, cancellation fears, corruption tied to construction.

A selection of verbatim responses from respondents:

"Big Build corruption."

"Big build over spending."

"Cost blowout on infrastructure."

"Corruption on big build not dealt with properly."

"Need to complete current projects before starting other new state spending."

"The budget and big build difficulties going forward."

"Rail loop and further debt."

"Stopping the SRL would be a terrible waste of money."

8. Leadership Concerns About Ben Carroll: 8%

Includes: inexperience, dishonesty, “backstabber”, “not trustworthy”, “too right‑wing”, “Liberal‑lite”, “same as Jacinta”, “weak leader”.

A selection of verbatim responses from respondents:

"Ben Carroll."

"Carroll is untested."

"Don’t know enough about his leadership skills."

"Inexperience."

"How new to leadership he is."

"He doesn’t make decisions."

"He is not confident enough to fulfil the top job."

"The newness of his leadership."

Other themes mentioned in relation to a potential ALP Government

9. General Incompetence / Poor Governance: 7%

Broad statements: “disaster”, “incompetent”, “failed in all aspects”, “cannot govern”, “everything concerns me”.

10. Social / Cultural / Ideological Concerns: 6%

Includes: “woke”, Safe Schools, drag queen controversy, immigration concerns, environmental policy disputes, “too right‑wing” or “too left‑wing”.

11. Regional Neglect: 4%

Mentions: rural areas ignored, poor roads, lack of services outside Melbourne.

12. Housing & Planning Concerns: 3%

Includes: demolition of public housing, high‑rise issues, affordability, planning overrides.

13. Education & Health System Concerns: 3%

Teacher pay, school funding, healthcare cuts, lack of investment.

14. Media Influence / Public Perception: 2%

Mentions: hostile press, conservative media, lack of fair coverage.

15. Miscellaneous / Low‑Frequency Themes: 2%

Includes: AI policy, AUKUS, discrimination concerns, environmental protections, local council issues.

Summary of all responses related to a potentially re-elected ALP Government

The responses are heavily dominated by three themes: corruption, financial mismanagement, and continuity of the Andrews/Allan era. Together, these account for over 80% of all concerns expressed.

Key concerns about a potential L-NP Coalition Government led by Jess Wilson are led by ‘Cuts to Public Services & Austerity’, ‘Internal Infighting, Instability & Lack of Cohesion’, ‘Lack of Policies / No Clear Plan’, ‘Inexperience of Jess Wilson & Team’, and ‘Right-Wing Shift / One Nation Influence’

Respondents were asked: “What, if anything, would concern you about a potential L-NP Coalition Government led by Jess Wilson?”

A response that illustrates the dominant tone of responses: “Cuts to services, health and education. Libs give tax breaks to rich/big business while treating ordinary Aussies as serfs.” “Infighting, unstable government.”

Key themes about a potential L-NP Coalition Government (with % share)

1. Cuts to Public Services & Austerity: 32%

This is the single largest theme. Includes: cuts to health, education, welfare, public transport, renewable energy, frontline services, vulnerable groups, housing programs, and “austerity measures”.

A selection of verbatim responses from respondents:

"Cuts to public services"

"Cuts to health and education"

"Cutbacks to education, health and renewable energy"

"Cuts to essential services"

"Layoffs in the public sector"

"Slashing services"

"Funding cuts to vulnerable people and groups"

"The cuts they will make to health, education"

2. Internal Infighting, Instability & Lack of Cohesion: 27%

Mentions: “rabble”, “disarray”, “infighting”, “lack of unity”, “factional battles”, “instability”, “no cohesion”, “party chaos”, “papered‑over divisions”.

A selection of verbatim responses from respondents:

"Coalition infighting"

"Infighting"

"Party instability"

"Her party is divided and a rabble"

"Liberals are in disarray"

"The Liberal Party are a rabble. Too much infighting."

"Internal bickering among Liberals"

"Can’t govern her own party let alone the State"

3. Lack of Policies / No Clear Plan: 24%

Includes: “no policies”, “no ideas”, “only attacks Labor”, “no solutions”, “policy vacuum”, “just memes”, “don’t know what they stand for”.

A selection of verbatim responses from respondents:

"No policies"

"Lack of policies"

"Lack of vision"

"No positive policies"

"No constructive policies"

"The coalition have no real policy to address real issues in Victoria"

"At present their only policies appear to be disagreeing with whatever the government does"

"No solutions only whining"

4. Inexperience of Jess Wilson & Team: 21%

Mentions: “too young”, “not ready”, “no leadership experience”, “unknown”, “needs more time”, “inexperienced team”, “not strong enough”.

A selection of verbatim responses from respondents:

"Her inexperience"

"Jess Wilson being so young"

"Lack of experience"

"Not enough experience yet"

"Jess Wilson is inexperienced and also has no policies"

"Too inexperienced and just don’t like her"

"I don’t believe she has the experience required to lead a state government effectively"

"The new team is unproven"

5. Right‑Wing Shift / One Nation Influence: 19%

Includes: fear of: Coalition with One Nation, Far‑right policy adoption, “Trump‑style politics”, Anti‑worker, anti‑union rhetoric, Culture‑war politics, Racism, discrimination, anti‑LGBTQIA+ concerns

A selection of verbatim responses from respondents:

"Coalition with one-nation"

"Deals with one nation"

"Capture by the far-right"

"Implementation of far-right policy"

"I’m concerned a Liberal Nats coalition will need to join with One Nation"

"Working with One Nation"

"That it would have to rely on One Nation for support"

"The awful influence of one nation crazies"

6. Climate & Environmental Concerns: 17%

Mentions: climate scepticism, rollback of net‑zero targets, coal/gas expansion, cuts to renewable energy, environmental damage, “anti‑climate action”.

A selection of verbatim responses from respondents:

"Climate Change"

"Environmental policy"

"Lack of action on climate change"

"Climate sceptics"

"Not progressive enough on climate action"

"They don’t care about climate change"

"The devastation of the environment"

"That they would cut clean energy"

7. Privatisation & Business‑First Governance: 15%

Includes: privatisation fears, “governing for the wealthy”, “big business mates”, “neoliberalism”, “anti‑worker bias”, “economic inequality”.

A selection of verbatim responses from respondents:

"Coalition governs only for the wealthy"

"Favouring the rich and/or big business"

"Too interested in business and not the people"

"Would favour big business not the workers"

"Anti-worker bias"

"Cuts to government support for the vulnerable"

"Policies suit the rich"

"Transfer of wealth from the working class to the capitalist class"

8. Cancellation of Infrastructure Projects: 13%

Mentions: SRL cancellation, airport rail concerns, tunnel projects, “halt infrastructure”, “undo Labor initiatives”, “end of Big Build”.

A selection of verbatim responses from respondents:

"Cancelling major projects"

"Stopping work on the Suburban Rail Loop"

"The cancelling of major infrastructure projects"

"We need the airport rail"

"Existing infrastructure projects may not continue"

"They will stop important infrastructure"

"Not completing the SRL"

"End of the Big Build"

Other themes mentioned in relation to a potential L-NP Coalition Government

9. Social Issues: Treaty, Rights, Discrimination: 12%

Includes: Ending the First Nations Treaty, Gender/abortion concerns, Discrimination fears (racial, religious, LGBTQIA+), “culture wars”, Loss of social empathy

10. Economic Management & Debt: 10%

Mentions: debt repayment challenges, fear of economic mismanagement, cuts to pay off debt, “how will they fix Labor’s debt?”, austerity concerns.

11. Media Influence & Public Perception: 4%

Mentions: biased media, negative portrayal, “one‑eyed view”, propaganda concerns.

12. Regional Neglect: 3%

Mentions: lack of support for regional towns, farmers, transport industry, “city‑centric focus”.

13. General Distrust / No Confidence — 3%

Includes: “don’t trust her”, “don’t trust Liberals”, “never vote Liberal”, “lack of integrity”.

14. Miscellaneous / Low‑Frequency Themes: 2%

Includes: immigration concerns, defence spending, energy mix debates, leadership style, personality criticisms.

Summary of all responses related to a potential L-NP Coalition Government

The dominant concerns for a potential L-NP Coalition Government revolve around these themes: Cuts to services, Infighting and instability, Lack of policy substance, Inexperience of leadership, Right‑wing drift and One Nation influence

Together, these account for over 70% of all concerns expressed about a potential L-NP Coalition Government.

Key concerns about a potential One Nation Government led by Warren Pickering are led by ‘Racism, Xenophobia & Discrimination’, ‘Lack of Policies/ No Governing Capability’, ‘Conspiracy Theories & Extremism’, ‘Inexperience of Leader & Candidates’, and ‘Division, Hate & Social Cohesion Breakdown’

Respondents were asked: “What, if anything, would concern you about a potential One Nation Government led by Warren Pickering?”

A pair of responses that capture the dominant tone of the responses: “Extreme racism and repulsive intolerance.” “They are a racist party that wants to divide the nation.”

Key themes about a potential One Nation Government (with % share)

1. Racism, Xenophobia & Discrimination: 41%

This is by far the largest theme. Includes: racism, anti‑immigrant sentiment, anti‑Aboriginal attitudes, xenophobia, monocultural ideology, discriminatory policing fears, hostility toward minorities (LGBTQIA+, migrants, Muslims), “Trump‑style” politics, and concerns about social division.

A selection of verbatim responses from respondents:

"Deep racism"

"Racism in politics increasing"

"A racist government? No thank you."

"Absolutely everything!! They are a racist party that wants to divide the nation"

"Divisiveness, racist and xenophobic"

"Racism and promoting hate"

"One nation is a bunch of racists"

"Racism will increase"

2. Lack of Policies / No Governing Capability: 29%

Mentions: “no policies”, “no plan”, “no experience”, “no idea how to govern”, “policy vacuum”, “simple solutions for complex issues”, “clueless candidates”, “no understanding of economics”.

A selection of verbatim responses from respondents:

"Absolutely no policy. Incompetent people."

"Absolutely zero policy that is grounded in any reality"

"Conspiracy theories and a lack of policy"

"Lack of policies"

"No policies"

"They have no policies"

"What are their policies?"

"No real policies. Complaints but no real solutions."

3. Conspiracy Theories & Extremism: 26%

Includes: anti‑vax rhetoric, conspiracy theories, Trump‑aligned ideology, “cookers”, extremist views, anti‑science positions, misinformation, bans on media, “threat to democracy”, “fascist tendencies”.

A selection of verbatim responses from respondents:

"Conspiracy theories"

"Crazy conspiracy theories"

"He is a conspiracy theorist"

"Everything will become MAGA Trump."

"Trump 2.0 policies"

"May follow a Trump style play book."

"Warren Pickering is a dangerous conspiracy theorist"

"Everything, conspiracy nut, antivax, complete cooker"

4. Inexperience of Leader & Candidates: 24%

Mentions: “no experience”, “unknown”, “not ready”, “no parliamentary background”, “unfit for office”, “lack of governance knowledge”, “team of amateurs”.

A selection of verbatim responses from respondents:

"Don’t believe one nation have necessary skills to govern"

"Experience"

"Far too raw. No experience"

"Lack of experience in governance"

"Zero experience governing this state"

"No experience at all"

"One Nation does not have what it takes to run a state"

"They have never governed"

5. Division, Hate & Social Cohesion Breakdown: 22%

Includes: divisive rhetoric, hate speech, community fragmentation, grievance politics, populism, “destroying multiculturalism”, “fracturing community cohesion”.

A selection of verbatim responses from respondents:

"Extreme right-wing attitudes"

"Far right"

"Extreme right-wing politics, racism, stupidity etc"

"Radical fascist party"

"Too radical and racist"

"Chaotic right wing dangerous government"

"Ultra-right with no policies"

"Rise of the Far Right/Nazis"

6. Threats to Rights, Equality & Social Policy: 18%

Mentions: Attacks on women’s rights (abortion access), LGBTQIA+ discrimination, Cuts to disability, mental health, social supports, Loss of civil liberties, Anti‑worker policies and threats to democratic norms.

A selection of verbatim responses from respondents:

"An ideological attack on LGBT and Women’s rights."

"Concerned they cannot understand the economic workings and would set back Women’s rights by 30 years"

"Mass deportation. Racist mindset. Cuts to LGBTQ+ community support and healthcare"

"Systemic racism, reduction in Women’s rights"

"Racism, Women’s rights"

"Rights of women taken away"

"Racism, segregation, New laws against transgender people"

"One Nation are not an inclusive party"

7. Cuts to Services & Economic Mismanagement: 15%

Includes: cuts to healthcare, education, welfare, public transport, NDIS, environmental programs; fears of economic collapse; “no understanding of state finances”.

A selection of verbatim responses from respondents:

"Cuts to healthcare and education"

"Cuts to schools"

"Cuts to welfare"

"Destroying health care and government services."

"Loss of state funding for health, transport and community services"

"Cuts to social services"

"That would be racist and social services would be cut"

"Transfer of wealth from the working class to the capitalist class"

8. Influence of Billionaires / Big Business: 12%

Mentions: Gina Rinehart influence, big‑business agenda, “government for billionaires”, corruption concerns, “mining magnate control”.

A selection of verbatim responses from respondents:

"Government led by the business interests of Gina Rinehart"

"Gina Rinehart"

"Gina Rinehart’s influence"

"Pauline is too close to Gina."

"One nation literally stand for anything Gina tells them too."

"Puppets to billionaires."

"Making billionaires richer"

"Political wing of Gina Rinehart’s business interests"

Other themes mentioned in relation to a potential One Nation Government

9. Environmental & Climate Concerns: 10%

Includes: climate denial, fossil fuel expansion, rollback of net‑zero targets, environmental degradation, anti‑renewable energy positions.

10. General Distrust / Fear / Alarm: 8%

Mentions: “terrified”, “scary proposition”, “disaster”, “would destroy the state”, “I’d leave the country”, “hopelessly unsuitable”.

11. Media Bias & Information Control: 4%

Includes: biased media, banning journalists, misinformation, hostile press dynamics.

12. Miscellaneous / Low‑Frequency Themes: 2%

Includes: candidate quality, organisational chaos, concerns about specific individuals, uncertainty due to lack of visibility.

Summary of all responses related to a potential One Nation Government

The responses provided in relation to a potential One Nation Government are the most extreme of the three different potential governments and the dominant concerns are: Racism and discrimination, Lack of policy substance, Conspiracy‑driven extremism, Inexperience and incompetence, Division and social harm.

Together, these account for over 70% of all responses relating to a potential One Nation Government.

This special SMS Roy Morgan survey was conducted from August 5-7, 2026, with a representative Victoria-wide cross-section of 2,084 electors.

Further details will be released in Roy Morgan’s weekly video update presented by Roy Morgan Chief Executive Officer Michele Levine.

In-depth detailed analysis such as by capital cities/country areas, age, gender, Victoria’s eight Upper House regions, occupation, and education is available to subscribers to the Morgan Poll.
To learn more contact Julian McCrann on (03) 9224 5365 or email julian.mccrann@roymorgan.com.

About Roy Morgan

Roy Morgan is Australia’s largest independent Australian research company, with offices in each state, as well as in the U.S. and U.K. A full-service research organisation, Roy Morgan has over 80 years’ experience collecting objective, independent information on consumers.