One Nation surges into first place on primary vote, but ALP maintains election-winning two-party preferred edge
This week One Nation primary support is up 2% to 26%, ahead of the ALP down 2% to 25.5%, and L-NP Coalition, down 1.5% to 22% - Liberals 18.5% (down 1.5%) and Nationals 3.5% (unchanged), Greens, up 0.5% to 15.5%, and Independents/ Other Parties up 1% to 11% according to the Roy Morgan Poll conducted from August 3-9, 2026, with a representative Australia-wide cross-section of 1,647 electors.
Support for One Nation (26%) is at its highest level for a month and ahead of the ALP for the first time since early July before the Reserve Bank meeting tomorrow to consider whether to raise interest rates.
One Nation received significant media coverage this week as the party launched its Victorian State Election campaign with Warren Pickering announced as the Victorian Leader of the party and the party announcing its lead candidates for the eight upper house regions.
Roy Morgan conducted a special SMS Victorian State Poll last week which showed the L-NP narrowly ahead of the ALP on a two-party preferred basis, but all three major parties securing over 20% of the primary vote: L-NP Coalition (26%), ALP (26%), and One Nation (23.5%).
Despite dropping behind on primary vote, the ALP maintains the same narrow edge on a two-party preferred basis against either One Nation (53% cf. 47%) or the L-NP Coalition (53% cf. 47%).
If a Federal Election were held now the ALP would win a majority against either One Nation or the L-NP Coalition
In many electorates at the Election the contest is set to be between the ALP and One Nation. When preferences are allocated for Coalition, Greens, Independent, and Other Party supporters between the ALP and One Nation, Roy Morgan estimates the ALP 53% (down 1%) in front of One Nation 47% (up 1%).
If the contest is between the ALP and L-NP, on a two-party preferred basis (based on how electors said they’d ’vote’ their preferences), the ALP is also ahead – ALP 53% (up 1%) cf. L-NP 47% (down 1%). However, when preferences are allocated based on how Australians voted at the 2025 Federal Election the gap is closer, ALP 52% (down 0.5%) leads L-NP 48% (up 0.5%).
The complicated nature of the next Federal Election means there will be contests between the ALP and One Nation, the ALP and L-NP Coalition, One Nation and the L-NP Coalition, and any three of these parties against the Greens, Teal Independents, and other minor parties such as Katter’s Australian Party (KAP).
Roy Morgan will be providing an extensive analysis of the Australia’s 150 Federal Electorates in the next few weeks using the Helix Personas psychographic consumer segmentation and data integration tool which provides unique and incisive insights into the minds of Australian electors.
Clear majority of 61.5% (up 2% points) of electors say Australia is ‘going in the wrong direction’
An increased majority of Australians, 61.5%, say the country is ‘going in the wrong direction’ (up 2% points). Only 24% (down 3%) say the country is ‘going in the right direction’.
Analysis by gender shows 62% of men and 60% of women say Australia is ‘going in the wrong direction’. In contrast, only 27.5% of men and just 20.5% of women say Australia is ‘going in the right direction’.
Roy Morgan Interviewing in July & August 2026: Primary Vote & Two-Party Preferred
*Interviewing dates of Australian electors aged 18+: July 6-12, 2026 (n=1,612), July 13-19, 2026 (n=1,679), July 20-26, 2026 (n=1,643), July 27 – August 2, 2026 (n=1,531), August 3-9, 2026. This week 6% (down 2.5%) of those surveyed can’t say who they would vote for.
Further details will be released in Roy Morgan’s weekly video update presented by Roy Morgan Chief Executive Officer Michele Levine.
For detailed analysis such as by States, capital cities/country areas, age, gender, occupation, and education contact Julian McCrann on (03) 9224 5365 or email julian.mccrann@roymorgan.com.
About Roy Morgan
Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
