In a week students protested against Pauline Hanson and One Nation, and the RBA left interest rates unchanged, the ALP regained its primary vote lead and maintained two-party preferred edge while Greens support is down
This week ALP primary support is up 3% to 28.5%, ahead of One Nation 25% (down 1%), L-NP Coalition, up 1.5% to 23.5% - Liberals 21% (up 2.5%) and Nationals 2.5% (down 1%), Greens, down 3% to 12.5%, and Independents/ Other Parties down 0.5% to 10.5% according to the Roy Morgan Poll conducted from August 10-16, 2026, with a representative Australia-wide cross-section of 1,576 electors.
The rise in primary support for the ALP (up 3% points) appears to have come straight from the Greens (down 3% points) and has made little difference to the two-party preferred result. The ALP maintains an edge on a two-party preferred basis against either One Nation (53% cf. 47%) or the L-NP Coalition (52% cf. 48%).
Support for the ALP increased in the week the RBA left interest rates unchanged at 4.35% following a lower- than-expected official ABS inflation reading for June 2026 (3.8%, down 0.2% points).
This is the first primary vote increase for the ALP for eight weeks, and highest primary support for the ALP for three months since the Federal Budget was delivered in mid-May. ALP was 29.5% week of May 11-17, 2026.
Support for the Greens fell significantly led by large falls in Victoria, and South Australia, and especially in the cities of Melbourne, Brisbane, and Adelaide – with support down by at least 4% points in these cities. Controversial Greens Senator Mehreen Faruqi urged students to skip school last week to protest against One Nation and its national leader Pauline Hanson.
If a Federal Election were held now the ALP would win a majority against either One Nation or the L-NP Coalition
In many electorates at the Election the contest is set to be between the ALP and One Nation. When preferences are allocated for Coalition, Greens, Independent, and Other Party supporters between the ALP and One Nation, Roy Morgan estimates the ALP 53% (unchanged) in front of One Nation 47% (unchanged).
If the contest is between the ALP and L-NP, on a two-party preferred basis (based on how electors said they’d ’vote’ their preferences), the ALP is also ahead – ALP 52% (down 1%) cf. L-NP 48% (up 1%). However, when preferences are allocated based on how Australians voted at the 2025 Federal Election the gap is closer, ALP 51.5% (down 0.5%) leads L-NP 48.5% (up 0.5%).
The complicated nature of the next Federal Election means there will be contests between the ALP and One Nation, the ALP and L-NP Coalition, One Nation and the L-NP Coalition, and any three of these parties against the Greens, Teal Independents, and other minor parties such as Katter’s Australian Party (KAP).
Roy Morgan will be providing an extensive analysis of the Australia’s 150 Federal Electorates in the next few weeks using the Helix Personas psychographic consumer segmentation and data integration tool which provides unique and incisive insights into the minds of Australian electors.
Clear majority of 60.5% (down 1% point) of electors say Australia is ‘going in the wrong direction’
A clear majority of Australians, 60.5%, say the country is ‘going in the wrong direction’ (down 1%). Only 26% (up 2%) say the country is ‘going in the right direction’.
Analysis by gender shows 62.5% of men and 58% of women say Australia is ‘going in the wrong direction’. In contrast, only 27.5% of men and just 24% of women say Australia is ‘going in the right direction’.
Roy Morgan Interviewing in July & August 2026: Primary Vote & Two-Party Preferred
*Interviewing dates of Australian electors aged 18+: July 13-19, 2026 (n=1,679), July 20-26, 2026 (n=1,643), July 27- Aug. 2, 2026 (n=1,531), Aug. 3-9, 2026 (n=1,647), Aug 10-16, 2026 (n=1,576). This week 4% (down 2%) of those surveyed can’t say who they would vote for.
Further details will be released in Roy Morgan’s weekly video update presented by Roy Morgan Chief Executive Officer Michele Levine.
For detailed analysis such as by States, capital cities/country areas, age, gender, occupation, and education contact Julian McCrann on (03) 9224 5365 or email julian.mccrann@roymorgan.com.
About Roy Morgan
Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
