ALP and One Nation are level on primary vote, but the ALP maintains a two-party preferred lead over the L-NP and One Nation

View full tables and cross-tabulations of the results here.

This week ALP primary support is down 1.5% to 27%, level with One Nation 27% (up 2%), and both well ahead of the L-NP Coalition, down 2.5% to 21% - Liberals 18.5% (down 2.5%) and Nationals 2.5% (unchanged), Greens, up 2% to 14%, and Independents/ Other Parties up 0.5% to 11% according to the Roy Morgan Poll conducted from August 17-23, 2026, with a representative Australia-wide cross-section of 1,508 electors.

Both major parties ALP (down 1.5%) and L-NP Coalition (down 2.5%) lost support this week, while the respective minor parties picked up support – Greens (up 1.5%) and One Nation (up 2%). The net result is little change to the two-party preferred result with the ALP maintaining an edge against either One Nation (53% cf. 47%) or the L-NP Coalition (52% cf. 48%) – both unchanged, from a week ago.

If a Federal Election were held now the ALP would win a majority against either One Nation or the L-NP Coalition

In many electorates at the Election the contest is set to be between the ALP and One Nation. When preferences are allocated for Coalition, Greens, Independent, and Other Party supporters between the ALP and One Nation, Roy Morgan estimates the ALP 53% (unchanged) in front of One Nation 47% (unchanged).

If the contest is between the ALP and L-NP, on a two-party preferred basis (based on how electors said they’d ’vote’ their preferences), the ALP is also ahead – ALP 52% (unchanged) cf. L-NP 48% (unchanged). However, when preferences are allocated based on how Australians voted at the 2025 Federal Election the gap is closer, ALP 52.5% (up 1%) leads L-NP 47.5% (down 1%).

The complicated nature of the next Federal Election means there will be contests between the ALP and One Nation, the ALP and L-NP Coalition, One Nation and the L-NP Coalition, and any three of these parties against the Greens, Teal Independents, and other minor parties such as Katter’s Australian Party (KAP).

Roy Morgan will be providing an extensive analysis of the Australia’s 150 Federal Electorates in the next few weeks using the Helix Personas psychographic consumer segmentation and data integration tool which provides unique and incisive insights into the minds of Australian electors.

Clear majority of 58.5% (down 2% points) of electors say Australia is ‘going in the wrong direction’

A clear majority of Australians, 58.5%, say the country is ‘going in the wrong direction’ (down 2%). Only 27% (up 1%) say the country is ‘going in the right direction’.

Analysis by gender shows 60.5% of men and 56.5% of women say Australia is ‘going in the wrong direction’. In contrast, only 27% of men and just 27.5% of women say Australia is ‘going in the right direction’.

Roy Morgan Interviewing in July & August 2026: Primary Vote & Two-Party Preferred

*Interviewing dates of Australian electors aged 18+: July 20-26, 2026 (n=1,643), July 27- Aug. 2, 2026 (n=1,531), Aug. 3-9, 2026 (n=1,647), Aug 10-16, 2026 (n=1,576), Aug 17-23, 2026 (n=1,508). This week 6.5% (up 2.5%) of those surveyed can’t say who they would vote for.

Further details will be released in Roy Morgan’s weekly video update presented by Roy Morgan Chief Executive Officer Michele Levine.

For detailed analysis such as by States, capital cities/country areas, age, gender, occupation, and education contact Julian McCrann on (03) 9224 5365 or email julian.mccrann@roymorgan.com.

About Roy Morgan

Roy Morgan is Australia’s largest independent Australian research company, with offices in each state, as well as in the U.S. and U.K. A full-service research organisation, Roy Morgan has over 80 years’ experience collecting objective, independent information on consumers.