ALP and One Nation both lose support as Prime Minister Albanese and One Nation Leader Pauline Hanson trade insults
This week ALP primary support is down 2% to 25%, now even with One Nation 25% (down 1.5%), and both well ahead of the L-NP Coalition 21.5% (unchanged) - Liberals 19% (up 2%) and Nationals 2.5% (down 2%), Greens, up 1.5% to 16%, and Independents/ Other Parties up 2% to 12.5% according to the Roy Morgan Poll conducted from September 7-13, 2026, with a representative Australia-wide cross-section of 1,583 electors.
In recent weeks Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has attacked One Nation Leader Pauline Hanson as ‘dangerous and divisive’, and on the weekend attacked Hanson again for what Albanese called Hanson’s ‘nastiness and spitefulness’ in comments made by Hanson directed at Albanese’s late mother made in a podcast interview with Karl Stefanovic which aired in February.
In return, One Nation Leader Pauline Hanson has accused Prime Minister Anthony Albanese of ‘inciting violence’ against Hanson and other One Nation MPs and supporters. In recent days there has been a new war of words between Liberal MP Andrew Hastie and Hanson after Hastie accused Hanson of calling him a traitor based on the content of the One Nation cartoon series ‘Please Explain’ which aired in July.
The Roy Morgan Poll is the only Federal Poll conducted on a weekly basis and the importance of weekly interviewing is highlighted by the number of things happening every week that only the Roy Morgan Poll can pick up. Next week’s Roy Morgan will show the impact of One Nation’s new immigration policy announced today as people move beyond the impact of personal insults of recent weeks shown in this week’s poll results.
If a Federal Election were held now the ALP would win a majority against either One Nation or the L-NP Coalition
In many electorates at the Election the contest is set to be between the ALP and One Nation. When preferences are allocated for Coalition, Greens, Independent, and Other Party supporters between the ALP and One Nation, Roy Morgan estimates the ALP 54.5% (up 1%) in front of One Nation 45.5% (down 1%).
If the contest is between the ALP and L-NP, on a two-party preferred basis (based on how electors said they’d ’vote’ their preferences), the ALP is also ahead – ALP 55% (up 2%) cf. L-NP 45% (down 2%). However, when preferences are allocated based on how Australians voted at the 2025 Federal Election the gap is closer, ALP 53% (up 0.5%) leads L-NP 47% (down 0.5%).
The complicated nature of the next Federal Election means there will be contests between the ALP and One Nation, the ALP and L-NP Coalition, One Nation and the L-NP Coalition, and any three of these parties against the Greens, Teal Independents, and other minor parties such as Katter’s Australian Party (KAP).
Roy Morgan will be providing an extensive analysis of the Australia’s 150 Federal Electorates in the next few weeks using the Helix Personas psychographic consumer segmentation and data integration tool which provides unique and incisive insights into the minds of Australian electors.
Large majority of 64% (up 2% points) of electors say Australia is ‘going in the wrong direction’
A large majority of Australians, 64%, say the country is ‘going in the wrong direction’ (up 2%). Only 23% (down 1%) say the country is ‘going in the right direction’.
Analysis by voting intention shows a majority of One Nation supporters (93%), L-NP Coalition supporters (73%), Other Party supporters (75%), Greens supporters (67%), and a clear plurality of supporters of Independent candidates (50%) say that the country is ‘going in the wrong direction’. In contrast, only 30% of ALP supporters say the country is ‘going in the wrong direction’ – a slim majority of 54% say the country is ‘going in the right direction’.
Roy Morgan Interviewing in August & September 2026: Primary Vote & Two-Party Preferred
*Interviewing dates of Australian electors aged 18+: Aug 10-16, 2026 (n=1,576), Aug 17-23, 2026 (n=1,508), Aug. 24-30, 2026 (n=1,585), Aug. 31-Sept. 6, 2026 (n=1,541), Sep 7-13, 2026 (n=1,583). This week 6.5% (unchanged) of those surveyed can’t say who they would vote for.
Further details will be released in Roy Morgan’s weekly video update presented by Roy Morgan Chief Executive Officer Michele Levine.
For detailed analysis such as by States, capital cities/country areas, age, gender, occupation, and education contact Julian McCrann on (03) 9224 5365 or email julian.mccrann@roymorgan.com.
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Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
