One Nation takes the lead on primary in a week where One Nation and Labor both announced immigration policies; ALP maintains an election winning two-party preferred lead
This week One Nation’s primary vote is up 0.5% to 25.5% while ALP primary support is unchanged on 25%. Both these parties are well ahead of the L-NP Coalition 21.5% (unchanged) - Liberals 19.5% (up 0.5%) and Nationals 2% (down 0.5%), Greens, down 0.5% to 15.5%, and Independents/ Other Parties unchanged on 12.5% according to the Roy Morgan Poll conducted from September 14-20, 2026, with a representative Australia-wide cross-section of 1,561 electors. This is the first time One Nation has led on primary vote since 10 August – six weeks ago.
This week One Nation announced their plan for ‘net negative’ immigration over three years, and a plan to reduce Australia’s migrant intake by 750,000. This was followed by a National Press Club address by Immigration Minister Tony Burke, outlining the Labor government’s plan to reach 225,000 net migration. The plan includes reducing the number of temporary holiday visas, deporting more illegal visa overstayers, restricting the ability of international students to bring their families to Australia, and elevating construction workers to the same priority level as those with a university degree.
The Roy Morgan Poll is the only Federal Poll conducted on a weekly basis and the importance of weekly interviewing is highlighted by the number of things happening every week that only the Roy Morgan Poll can pick up. Next week’s Roy Morgan poll will show the impact of Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s trip to the United States, where he has visited Silicon Valley for talks with global tech leaders, including Apple CEO Tim Cook, and launched Australia’s campaign for a seat on the United Nations Security Council in New York.
If a Federal Election were held now the ALP would win a majority against either One Nation or the L-NP Coalition
In many electorates at the Election the contest is set to be between the ALP and One Nation. When preferences are allocated for Coalition, Greens, Independent, and Other Party supporters between the ALP and One Nation, Roy Morgan estimates the ALP 54% (down 0.5%) in front of One Nation 46% (up 0.5%).
If the contest is between the ALP and L-NP, on a two-party preferred basis (based on how electors said they’d ’vote’ their preferences), the ALP is also ahead – ALP 53% (down 2%) cf. L-NP 47% (up 2%). However, when preferences are allocated based on how Australians voted at the 2025 Federal Election the gap is closer, ALP 52% (down 1%) leads L-NP 48% (up 1%).
The complicated nature of the next Federal Election means there will be contests between the ALP and One Nation, the ALP and L-NP Coalition, One Nation and the L-NP Coalition, and any three of these parties against the Greens, Teal Independents, and other minor parties such as Katter’s Australian Party (KAP).
Roy Morgan will be providing an extensive analysis of the Australia’s 150 Federal Electorates in the next few weeks using the Helix Personas psychographic consumer segmentation and data integration tool which provides unique and incisive insights into the minds of Australian electors.
Large majority of 65% (up 1 percentage point) of electors say Australia is ‘going in the wrong direction’
A large majority of Australians, 65%, say the country is ‘going in the wrong direction’ (up 1%). Only 21% (down 2%) say the country is ‘going in the right direction’.
Analysis by voting intention shows a majority of One Nation supporters (95%), L-NP Coalition supporters (77%), Other Party supporters (68%), Greens supporters (60%), and supporters of Independent candidates (63%) say that the country is ‘going in the wrong direction’.
In contrast, only 30% of ALP supporters say the country is ‘going in the wrong direction’ – a slim majority of 51% say the country is ‘going in the right direction’.
Roy Morgan Interviewing in August & September 2026: Primary Vote & Two-Party Preferred
*Interviewing dates of Australian electors aged 18+: Aug 17-23, 2026 (n=1,508), Aug. 24-30, 2026 (n=1,585), Aug. 31-Sept. 6, 2026 (n=1,541), Sep 7-13, 2026 (n=1,583), Sep 14-20 2026 (1,561). This week 5.5% (-1%) of those surveyed can’t say who they would vote for.
Further details will be released in Roy Morgan’s weekly video update presented by Roy Morgan Chief Executive Officer Michele Levine.
For detailed analysis such as by States, capital cities/country areas, age, gender, occupation, and education contact Julian McCrann on (03) 9224 5365 or email julian.mccrann@roymorgan.com.
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Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
