Federal Election is now ‘too close to call’ as ALP (25.5%) holds narrow primary vote lead over One Nation (24.5%) and L-NP Coalition (22%)

View full tables and cross-tabulations of the results here.

Over the past fortnight federal voting intention has tightened with the ALP 25.5% (down 0.5% from two weeks ago) just in front of One Nation 24.5% (up 2%) and the L-NP Coalition 22% (down 1.5%): (19% Liberal, 3% Nationals). Support for the Greens 15% (down 0.5%) and Independent/Others 13% (up 0.5%) is little changed according to the Roy Morgan Poll conducted October 26 – November 8, 2026, with a representative Australia-wide cross-section of 2,574 electors.

Support for the ALP has weakened in the last month, but support for second-placed One Nation has fluctuated – driven by two acts of apparent political violence. One Nation support weakened in the immediate aftermath of the attack on Independent MP Helen Haines (down 1.5% to 22.5% in late October) as media speculation initially centred on the attacker being “far-right”. This allegation was later disproved and along with the vicious attack on a One Nation Victorian volunteer in Torquay on November 1 are both factors which have led to support for One Nation rebounding – up 2% to 24.5%.

The support for the L-NP Coalition benefited from the decline in One Nation support initially (up 2% to 23.5%) but has decreased over the past fortnight (down 1.5% to 22%) as One Nation support rebounded. These movements are clear in the federal voting intention table provided below.

The two party preferred results have continued to tighten on a weekly basis. For the full fortnight the ALP 51% (down 1.5% from a fortnight ago) leads the L-NP 49% (up 1.5%) on a two-party preferred basis.

In the first week of interviewing (October 26 – November 1, 2026) the two-party preferred lead was: ALP 51.5% cf. L-NP 48.5% - a gap of 3% points. In the second week of interviewing – and after the Reserve Bank raised interest rates to an 18-year high of 4.85%, this has narrowed to a ‘toss-up’: ALP 50.5% cf. L-NP 49.5%.

If a Federal Election were held now the result would be ‘too close to call’

When preferences for the major parties are allocated based on how Australians voted at the 2025 Federal Election the gap is significantly wider, ALP 52.5% (down 0.5%) leads L-NP 47.5% (up 0.5%). 

In many electorates at the Election the contest is set to be between the ALP and One Nation. When preferences are allocated for Coalition, Greens, Independent, and Other Party supporters between the ALP and One Nation, Roy Morgan estimates the ALP is in a strong position: ALP 54% (down 1%) in front of One Nation 46% (up 1%).

The complicated nature of the next Federal Election means there will be contests between the ALP and One Nation, the ALP and L-NP Coalition, One Nation and the L-NP Coalition, and any three of these parties against the Greens, Teal Independents, and other minor parties such as Katter’s Australian Party (KAP). 

Roy Morgan will be providing an extensive analysis of the Australia’s 150 Federal Electorates in the next few weeks using the Helix Personas psychographic consumer segmentation and data integration tool which provides unique and incisive insights into the minds of Australian electors.

ALP performs most strongly in Western Australia, New South Wales, and South Australia, One Nation is highest in Queensland, and the L-NP Coalition is strongest in Victoria – facing an election this month

Among the five mainland states, the ALP is strongest in Western Australia (29%), New South Wales (28%), and South Australia (27.5%). The ALP is under 25% support in Victoria (23.5%), and Queensland (20%).

One Nation performs best in Queensland with 35% support – almost double both the ALP (20%), and LNP (20%). One Nation also has widespread support in Western Australia (27.5%) and New South Wales (23.5%).

The L-NP Coalition has the highest support in only one State – but importantly it is Victoria at 27.5% clearly ahead of the ALP (23.5%) and One Nation (19%). Victorians head to a State Election over the next few weeks with the L-NP Coalition favoured to return to Government after a 12-year absence.

Support for the Greens is highest in South Australia (19%), and Western Australia (19%), and lowest in Victoria (14%), and New South Wales (12%).

Large majority of 65.5% of electors say Australia is ‘going in the wrong direction’ 

A large majority of Australians, 65.5% (up 2.5% from a fortnight ago), say the country is ‘going in the wrong direction’. Only 20.5% (down 1.5%) say the country is ‘going in the right direction’. 

Analysis by state shows a majority in all states believe the country is going in the wrong direction. This is highest in Western Australia, where 70% believe this, and once again lowest in Tasmania (61%).

Roy Morgan Interviewing in September, October & November 2026: Primary Vote & Two-Party Preferred

*Interviewing dates of Australian electors aged 18+: Sep 7-13, 2026 (n=1,583). Sep 14-27, 2026 (n=2,569), Sep. 28 – Oct 11, 2026 (n=2,655), Oct 12-25, 2026 (n=2,711), Oct 26 – Nov 8, 2026 (n=2,574). This fortnight 6% (down 0.5%) of those surveyed can’t say who they would vote for.

Roy Morgan Interviewing 26 October – 8 November 2026: Primary Vote by State

Interviewing dates of Australian electors aged 18+: Oct. 26 – Nov. 8, 2026 (n=2,574), NSW (n=732), Vic (n=645), Qld (n=522), SA (n=228), WA (n=223). This fortnight 6% (down 0.5%) of those surveyed can’t say who they would vote for.

Roy Morgan Interviewing 12-25 October 2026: Primary Vote by State (Previous interviewing)

Interviewing dates of Australian electors aged 18+: Oct 12-25, 2026 (n=2,711), NSW (n=829), Vic (n=654), Qld (n=512), SA (n=238), WA (n=263). This fortnight 6.5% (down 0.5%) of those surveyed can’t say who they would vote for.

Roy Morgan Interviewing 12 October – 8 November 2026: Primary Vote for Tasmania (Previous interviewing)

Interviewing dates of Tasmanian electors aged 18+: Sep. 14 – Oct 11, 2026 (n=204), Oct. 12 – Nov. 8, 2026 (n=231)

Roy Morgan Interviewing 26 October – 8 November 2026: Primary Vote by City/Country

Interviewing dates of Australian electors aged 18+: Oct. 26– Nov 8, 2026 (n=2,574). Capital Cities (n=1,649),
Country Regions (n=925). This fortnight 6% (down 0.5%) of those surveyed can’t say who they would vote for.

Roy Morgan Interviewing 12-25 October 2026: Primary Vote by City/Country (Previous interviewing)

Interviewing dates of Australian electors aged 18+: Oct 12-25, 2026 (n=2,711). Capital Cities (n=1,740),
Country Regions (n=971). This fortnight 6.5% (down 0.5%) of those surveyed can’t say who they would vote for.

Further details will be released in Roy Morgan’s weekly video update presented by Roy Morgan Chief Executive Officer Michele Levine.

For detailed analysis such as by States, capital cities/country areas, age, gender, occupation, and education contact Julian McCrann on (03) 9224 5365 or email julian.mccrann@roymorgan.com.

About Roy Morgan

Roy Morgan is Australia’s largest independent Australian research company, with offices in each state, as well as in the U.S. and U.K. A full-service research organisation, Roy Morgan has over 80 years’ experience collecting objective, independent information on consumers.