ALP holds a narrow election winning lead; L-NP (23.5%) overtakes One Nation (22.5%) for first time since mid-July
Over the past fortnight the ALP has maintained a narrow election winning lead with 26% (unchanged from two weeks ago) of the primary vote. Importantly, L-NP Coalition primary is 23.5% (up 2%): (21% Liberal, 2.5% Nationals), ahead of One Nation on 22.5% (down 1.5%) for the first time since mid-July. Support for the Greens 15.5% (up 0.5%) and Independent/Others 12.5% (down 1%) is little changed.
Interviewing over the last fortnight surrounds the allegedly targeted attack on Independent MP Helen Haines which sent the Victorian MP into hospital a week ago on Monday October 19. The horrible attack has had a deep impact on many in the Australian community, and there may be early signs of a political impact.
Primary support for both the ALP (-1%) and One Nation (-1.5%) was slightly lower in the week following the attack, and primary support for the L-NP Coalition (+1%) was slightly higher. These movements are small and well within the ‘margin of error’, so it is too early to draw definitive conclusions about the political impact of the attack, but there are potential warning signs for the Albanese Government and One Nation in these results.
These results are according to the Roy Morgan Poll conducted from October 12-25, 2026, with a representative Australia-wide cross-section of 2,711 electors.
If a Federal Election were held now the ALP would win a narrow majority against the L-NP Coalition and a clear majority against One Nation
If the contest is between the ALP and L-NP, on a two-party preferred basis (based on how electors said they’d ’vote’ their preferences), the ALP is also ahead – ALP 52.5% (down 0.5%) cf. L-NP 47.5% (up 0.5%). However, when preferences are allocated based on how Australians voted at the 2025 Federal Election the gap is closer, ALP 53% (down 0.5%) leads L-NP 47% (up 0.5%).
In many electorates at the Election the contest is set to be between the ALP and One Nation. When preferences are allocated for Coalition, Greens, Independent, and Other Party supporters between the ALP and One Nation, Roy Morgan estimates the ALP 55% (up 0.5%) in front of One Nation 45% (down 0.5%).
The complicated nature of the next Federal Election means there will be contests between the ALP and One Nation, the ALP and L-NP Coalition, One Nation and the L-NP Coalition, and any three of these parties against the Greens, Teal Independents, and other minor parties such as Katter’s Australian Party (KAP).
Roy Morgan will be providing an extensive analysis of the Australia’s 150 Federal Electorates in the next few weeks using the Helix Personas psychographic consumer segmentation and data integration tool which provides unique and incisive insights into the minds of Australian electors.
L-NP Coalition and One Nation are tied in New South Wales, L-NP Coalition leads One Nation in Victoria and South Australia while One Nation leads the L-NP in Queensland and Western Australia
Among the five mainland states, there is a close contest between the L-NP Coalition and One Nation. In New South Wales, both parties are level on 23% primary support.
The L-NP Coalition leads One Nation in both Victoria (25% cf. 20%) – the State which faces an election in just over a month – and South Australia (22.5% cf. 19%).
In contrast, One Nation leads the LNP in Queensland (28.5% cf. 25%) and Western Australia (24% cf. 21%).
The ALP has the highest primary vote in four States: New South Wales (27%), Victoria (27%), South Australia (26.5%), and Western Australia (26.5%). One Nation has the highest primary vote in Queensland (28.5%).
Support for the Greens is highest in South Australia (20%), and Victoria (17%), and lowest in New South Wales (14%), and Western Australia 914%).
Large majority of 63% of electors say Australia is ‘going in the wrong direction’
A large majority of Australians, 63% (up 0.5% from a fortnight ago), say the country is ‘going in the wrong direction’. Only 22% (down 2.5%) say the country is ‘going in the right direction’.
Analysis by state shows a majority in all states believe the country is going in the wrong direction. This is highest in Queensland, where 71% believe this, and once again lowest in South Australia (55%).
Roy Morgan Interviewing in August, September & October 2026: Primary Vote & Two-Party Preferred
*Interviewing dates of Australian electors aged 18+: Aug. 31-Sept. 6, 2026 (n=1,541), Sep 7-13, 2026 (n=1,583). Sep 14-27, 2026 (n=2,569), Sep. 28 – Oct 11, 2026 (n=2,655), Oct 12-25, 2026 (n=2,711). This fortnight 6.5% (down 0.5%) of those surveyed can’t say who they would vote for.
Further details will be released in Roy Morgan’s weekly video update presented by Roy Morgan Chief Executive Officer Michele Levine.
For detailed analysis such as by States, capital cities/country areas, age, gender, occupation, and education contact Julian McCrann on (03) 9224 5365 or email julian.mccrann@roymorgan.com.
About Roy Morgan
Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
