April 18, 2023

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence down 2.1pts to 77.2 with 36% (up 3ppts) expecting to be ‘worse off’ financially next year and only 30% (down 2ppts) expecting to be ‘better off’

Topic: Consumer Confidence
Finding No: 9210
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ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence was down 2.1pts to 77.2 this week, wiping out the increase of 1.1pts last week after the RBA decided not to raise interest rates in early April.

This is the now the seventh straight week the index has been below the mark of 80 – the longest stretch below 80 since the index began being conducted on a weekly basis in October 2008. The last time Consumer Confidence spent at least seven weeks under 80 was during the 1990-91 recession when the index was conducted on a monthly basis.

Consumer Confidence is now 19.6pts below the same week a year ago, April 11-17, 2022 (96.8) and 3.8pts below the 2023 weekly average of 81.0. Consumer Confidence was down in most States including New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland and South Australia, but up slightly in Western Australia – now the only State with Consumer Confidence above the mark of 80.

The driver of this week’s decrease was less confidence about personal financial situations over the next 12 months and fewer Australians saying now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items.

Current financial conditions

  • Now 18% of Australians (down 1ppt) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year compared to 50% (down 2ppts) that say their families are ‘worse off’ financially.

Future financial conditions

  • Looking forward, under a third of Australians, 30% (down 2ppts), expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year while over a third, 36% (up 3ppts), expect to be ‘worse off’.

Current economic conditions

  • Only 6% (down 2ppts) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next twelve months compared to over a third, 36% (down 1ppt), that expect ‘bad times’.

Future economic conditions

  • Sentiment regarding the Australian economy in the longer term remains very weak with only 12% (up 1ppt) of Australians expecting ‘good times’ for the economy over the next five years compared to 21% (up 1ppt) expecting ‘bad times’.

Time to buy a major household item

  • When it comes to buying intentions now 18% (down 2ppts) of Australians, say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items while over half, 55% (up 3ppts), say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

ANZ Senior Economist, Adelaide Timbrell, commented:

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Consumer confidence fell to its seventh weakest result since the COVID outbreak in March 2020, despite the RBA’s no-hike decision in April, rising housing prices and the low unemployment rate of 3.5%. Though the confidence gap between homeowners with mortgages (the least confident cohort) and other housing cohorts was slightly less than average for the year. Confidence in the near-term future declined the most, with a 5.5pt drop in ‘future financial conditions’ and a 1.2pt drop in expectations of economic conditions over the next year. The subindex for whether it is a good ‘time to buy a major household item’ dropped to its lowest since April 2020. All subindices of confidence were lower than average for 2023.

Related Research Reports

The latest Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Monthly Report is available on the Roy Morgan Online Store. It provides demographic breakdowns for Age, Sex, State, Region (Capital Cities/ Country), Generations, Lifecycle, Socio-Economic Scale, Work Status, Occupation, Home Ownership, Voting Intention, Roy Morgan Value Segments and more

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Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size Percentage Estimate
40% – 60% 25% or 75% 10% or 90% 5% or 95%
1,000 ±3.0 ±2.7 ±1.9 ±1.3
5,000 ±1.4 ±1.2 ±0.8 ±0.6
7,500 ±1.1 ±1.0 ±0.7 ±0.5
10,000 ±1.0 ±0.9 ±0.6 ±0.4
20,000 ±0.7 ±0.6 ±0.4 ±0.3
50,000 ±0.4 ±0.4 ±0.3 ±0.2
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