Roy Morgan Research
September 12, 2023

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence down 1.1pts to 77.6

Topic: Consumer Confidence
Finding No: 9315
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ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence was down 1.1pts to 77.6 this week and has now spent a record 28 straight weeks (equivalent to over six months) below the mark of 80. Consumer Confidence is now 8.1pts below the same week a year ago, September 5-11, 2022 (85.7) and is now just below the 2023 weekly average of 78.1.

Weekly Consumer Confidence has now spent eight weeks since mid-July within a narrow band of four points (75-79) and averaged 77.1 since the week of July 17-23, 2023.

There was a mixed picture when looking around the States with Consumer Confidence down in Victoria and South Australia, but up slightly in New South Wales, Queensland and Western Australia.

Driving the small decrease in the index this week was a decline in sentiment around the long-term fortunes of the economy and buying sentiment with fewer people saying now is a ‘bad time to buy’ major household items – essentially reversing the results of a week ago.

Current financial conditions

  • Now just over a fifth of Australians, 21% (up 1ppt) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year compared to a majority of 55% (up 2ppts) that say their families are ‘worse off’ financially.

Future financial conditions

  • Looking forward, under a third of Australians, 30% (down 1ppt), expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year while 33% (down 3ppts), expect to be ‘worse off’.

Current economic conditions

  • Only 7% (unchanged) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next twelve months compared to over one-third, 36% (down 1ppt), that expect ‘bad times’.

Future economic conditions

  • Sentiment regarding the Australian economy in the longer term has improved slightly this week with 11% (down 1ppt) of Australians expecting ‘good times’ for the economy over the next five years compared to just over a fifth, 23% (up 4ppts), expecting ‘bad times’.

Time to buy a major household item

  • Sentiment regarding to buying intentions is marginally better this week with 19% (down 2ppts) of Australians, who now say it is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items while a clear majority of 53% (up 1ppt), say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

ANZ Economist, Madeline Dunk, commented:

Block Quote

The recent upswing in ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence has hit a roadblock, with the index falling 1.1pts last week. This is despite the RBA keeping the cash rate on hold at its September meeting, and the Q2 GDP data suggesting that Australia is on track for a soft landing. Confidence has now printed below 80pts for six months in a row – the longest stint on record.

There was a sharp fall in confidence amongst renters last week. And while consumer confidence remains lowest for those households with a mortgage, confidence amongst this group has lifted to its highest level in five months.

Check out the latest results for our weekly surveys on Business Confidence, Consumer Confidence, and Voting Intention as follows:

Related Research Reports

The latest Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Monthly Report is available on the Roy Morgan Online Store. It provides demographic breakdowns for Age, Sex, State, Region (Capital Cities/ Country), Generations, Lifecycle, Socio-Economic Scale, Work Status, Occupation, Home Ownership, Voting Intention, Roy Morgan Value Segments and more

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Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size Percentage Estimate
40% – 60% 25% or 75% 10% or 90% 5% or 95%
1,000 ±3.0 ±2.7 ±1.9 ±1.3
5,000 ±1.4 ±1.2 ±0.8 ±0.6
7,500 ±1.1 ±1.0 ±0.7 ±0.5
10,000 ±1.0 ±0.9 ±0.6 ±0.4
20,000 ±0.7 ±0.6 ±0.4 ±0.3
50,000 ±0.4 ±0.4 ±0.3 ±0.2
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