Roy Morgan Research
February 06, 2024

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence recovers 1.3pts to 83.8 after Albanese Government reveals substance of Stage 3 tax cut changes

Topic: Consumer Confidence
Finding No: 9410
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ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence increased 1.3pts to 83.8 this week after the Albanese Government outlined the substance of the changes it has decided to make to the long-awaited Stage 3 tax cuts. The increase followed a fall last week as discussion of changes to the tax cuts (without the full details) entered the public arena.

Nevertheless, despite the increase, Consumer Confidence has now spent a record 53 straight weeks below the mark of 85. Consumer Confidence is now 0.2pts above the same week a year ago, January 30 – February 5, 2023 (86.6), but 5.8 points above the 2023 weekly average of 78.0.

There were mixed results around the States with Consumer Confidence reversing the trends of last week and up in NSW, Queensland, Western Australia and South Australia but down in Victoria.

Current financial conditions

  • Now just over a fifth of Australians, 21% (up 2ppts) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year compared to 52% (up 2ppts) that say their families are ‘worse off’.

Future financial conditions

  • Looking forward, a third of Australians, 33% (down 1ppt), expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year while an identical number, 33% (up 1ppt), expect to be ‘worse off’.

Short-term economic confidence

  • Now just over one-in-ten Australians, 11% (up 2ppts) expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next twelve months (the equal highest figure for this indicator for nearly two years since April 2022) compared to nearly a third, 30% (down 1ppt), that expect ‘bad times’ (the lowest figure for this indicator for nearly two years since May 2022).

Medium-term economic confidence

  • Net sentiment regarding the Australian economy in the longer term has improved this week with 14% (up 3ppts) of Australians expecting ‘good times’ for the economy over the next five years compared to just under a fifth, 19% (down 2ppts), expecting ‘bad times’.

Time to buy a major household item

  • Buying intentions were virtually unchanged this week with 23% (up 1ppt) of Australians saying now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items while 49% (up 1ppt), say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

ANZ Senior Economist, Adelaide Timbrell, commented:

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ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence increased last week, driven by a rise in confidence about the future of the economy. Future financial confidence also rose, perhaps influenced by the change to Stage 3 tax cuts, which reduce taxes compared to the original cuts for all employees earning under AUD150,000 a year. We expect the RBA to hold rates at 4.35% today, which would help confidence for indebted homeowners, who on average now have higher confidence than renters for the first time since mid-2022. Inflation expectations are down to their lowest four-week average since February 2022.

Check out the latest results for our weekly surveys on Business Confidence, Consumer Confidence, and Voting Intention as follows:

Related Research Reports

The latest Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Monthly Report is available on the Roy Morgan Online Store. It provides demographic breakdowns for Age, Sex, State, Region (Capital Cities/ Country), Generations, Lifecycle, Socio-Economic Scale, Work Status, Occupation, Home Ownership, Voting Intention, Roy Morgan Value Segments and more

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Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size Percentage Estimate
40% – 60% 25% or 75% 10% or 90% 5% or 95%
1,000 ±3.0 ±2.7 ±1.9 ±1.3
5,000 ±1.4 ±1.2 ±0.8 ±0.6
7,500 ±1.1 ±1.0 ±0.7 ±0.5
10,000 ±1.0 ±0.9 ±0.6 ±0.4
20,000 ±0.7 ±0.6 ±0.4 ±0.3
50,000 ±0.4 ±0.4 ±0.3 ±0.2
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