Roy Morgan Research
July 02, 2024

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence up 0.9pts to 81.3 as End of Financial Year (EOFY) sales provide a late June boost

Topic: Consumer Confidence
Finding No: 9515

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence increased 0.9pts to 81.3 this week. Despite the increase Consumer Confidence has now spent a record 74 straight weeks below the mark of 85. Consumer Confidence is a large 7.2 points above the same week a year ago, June 26 – July 2, 2023 (74.1), but is still 0.6 points below the 2024 weekly average of 81.9.

A look at Consumer Confidence by State shows the index was unchanged in the two largest States of New South Wales and Victoria and up slightly in the States of Queensland, WA and SA.

There were slight increases this week in terms of views on personal finances compared to a year ago and an improvement in the net view on whether now is a ‘good/bad time to buy major household items’.

Current financial conditions

  • Now just a fifth of Australians, 20% (up 1ppt), say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year compared to 50% (down 2ppts) that say their families are ‘worse off’.

Future financial conditions

  • Views on personal finances over the next year were virtually unchanged this week, with under a third of Australians, 31% (up 1ppt) expecting their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year while another 36% (up 1ppt) are expecting to be ‘worse off’.

Short-term economic confidence

  • In addition, only 8% (unchanged) expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next twelve months compared to 37% (up 2ppts), that expect ‘bad times’.

Medium-term economic confidence

  • Net sentiment regarding the Australian economy in the longer term was virtually unchanged this week with 11% (down 1ppt) of Australians expecting ‘good times’ for the economy over the next five years compared to a fifth, 20% (down 2ppts), expecting ‘bad times’.

Time to buy a major household item

  • There was a slight improvement to net buying intentions this week with a quarter, 25% (unchanged), of Australians saying now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items while 46% (down 2ppts) – and the lowest figure for this indicator since the first week of January, say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

ANZ Economist, Madeline Dunk, commented:

Block Quote

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence increased 0.9pts last week. Notably, inflation expectations recorded their largest weekly increase in nine months following the stronger than expected monthly CPI result. As a result, inflation expectations are sitting at a two-month high of 5.2%.

The ‘time to buy a major household item’ subindex rose for the third week in a row and is up 7.9pts over the last month. This may be linked to end-of-financial year sales, which began in early June as retailers try to attract price sensitive householders to purchase discounted products.

Check out the latest results for our weekly surveys on Business Confidence, Consumer Confidence, and Voting Intention as follows:

Related Research Reports

The latest Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Monthly Report is available on the Roy Morgan Online Store. It provides demographic breakdowns for Age, Sex, State, Region (Capital Cities/ Country), Generations, Lifecycle, Socio-Economic Scale, Work Status, Occupation, Home Ownership, Voting Intention, Roy Morgan Value Segments and more

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Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size Percentage Estimate
40% – 60% 25% or 75% 10% or 90% 5% or 95%
1,000 ±3.0 ±2.7 ±1.9 ±1.3
5,000 ±1.4 ±1.2 ±0.8 ±0.6
7,500 ±1.1 ±1.0 ±0.7 ±0.5
10,000 ±1.0 ±0.9 ±0.6 ±0.4
20,000 ±0.7 ±0.6 ±0.4 ±0.3
50,000 ±0.4 ±0.4 ±0.3 ±0.2
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