ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence drops 3.5pts to 80.5 after inflation spikes to 3.8% and spurs talk of interest rate rises
ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence dropped 3.5pts to 80.5 last week after the official ABS annual Inflation estimate released last week increased to 3.8% and spurred talk of interest rate increases from the Reserve Bank this week. Consumer Confidence is now 8pts lower than a year ago, January 27 – February 2, 2025 (88.5), and 1.6pts below the 2026 weekly average of 82.1.
An analysis by State shows decreases in the three largest States of New South Wales, Victoria, and Queensland, but increases in both Western Australia and South Australia.
Driving the weekly increase was a drop in confidence about personal finances as well as the performance of the Australian economy over the next year.
Under a fifth of Australians, 18% (down 2ppts), say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year compared to a rising 45% (up 6ppts) that say their families are ‘worse off’.
Views on personal finances over the next year dipped to multi-year lows this week with only 24% (down 1ppt) of respondents expecting their family will be ‘better off’ financially this time next year (the lowest figure for this indicator for nearly six years since the start of the pandemic in March 2020), while over a third, 36% (up 2ppts), expect to be ‘worse off’ (the highest figure for this indicator for over 18 months since June 2024).
Net sentiment regarding the economy over the next year deteriorated this week with just 8% (down 1ppt) of Australians, expecting ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next twelve months compared to a third, 33% (up 3ppts), that expect ‘bad times’.
Net views regarding the Australian economy in the longer-term were virtually unchanged this week with 10% (up 1ppt) of Australians expecting ‘good times’ for the economy over the next five years compared to over a quarter, 26% (unchanged), expecting ‘bad times’.
Net buying intentions deteriorated this week with 21% (down 2ppts) of respondents saying now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items compared to 39% (up 2ppts) that say now is a ‘bad time to buy major household items’.
ANZ Economist, Sophia Angala, commented:
ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence fell 3.5pts to 80.5pts last week. Households are feeling less optimistic about their personal finances, with the ‘future financial conditions’ subindex at its lowest level since late November 2023 (soon after the RBA increased the cash rate to 4.35%).
The tick up in weekly inflation expectations and the broad-based decline in confidence may have been influenced by discussion of a potential rate hike ahead of this week’s RBA meeting. This follows the release of Q4 2025 inflation data, which showed the trimmed mean measure, the RBA’s preferred measure of underlying inflation, came in higher than the RBA’s expectations.
Check out the latest results for our weekly surveys on Business Confidence, Consumer Confidence, and Voting Intention as follows:
Roy Morgan Business Confidence Statistics
ANZ – Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Statistics
Federal Voting – Government Confidence Rating
Related Research Reports
The latest Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Monthly Report is available on the Roy Morgan Online Store. It provides demographic breakdowns for Age, Sex, State, Region (Capital Cities/ Country), Generations, Lifecycle, Socio-Economic Scale, Work Status, Occupation, Home Ownership, Voting Intention, Roy Morgan Value Segments and more
Consumer Confidence – Monthly Detailed Report in Australia.
Business Confidence – Monthly Detailed Report in Australia.
Consumer Banking Satisfaction - Monthly Report in Australia.
For comments or more information please contact:
Roy Morgan - Enquiries
Office: +61 (03) 9224 5309
askroymorgan@roymorgan.com
Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
