Federal voting intention before US bombing of Iranian nuclear sites showed the ALP retained a strong two-party preferred lead: ALP 58% cf. L-NP 42%

For the first three weeks of June, before the US bombing of the Iranian nuclear sites on the weekend, the ALP on 58% maintained a large two-party preferred lead over the L-NP Coalition on 42% on a two-party preferred basis, the latest Roy Morgan survey finds.

In the first three weeks of June primary support for the ALP was at 37.5% (up 0.5% since May) and is clearly ahead of the Liberal-National Coalition on 31% (unchanged).

Support for the Greens increased 0.5% to 12% and support for One Nation was unchanged at 6%. In addition, support for Independents/Other Parties was at 13.5% (down 1%).

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is up again and now in positive territory above 100

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating increased 4.5 points to 101.5 during the first three weeks of June. Government Confidence is now above the neutral level of 100 for the first time in well over two years since February 2023.

Now a plurality of 43% (up 2% since May) of Australians say the country is ‘going in the right direction’ compared to 41.5% (down 2.5% since May) that say the country is ‘going in the wrong direction’.

Clearly Government Confidence depends on whether your side of politics is in power. Roy Morgan data scientists analysed Government Confidence by Party support, and a clear story emerges.

Now a large majority of 65.5% of ALP supporters say the country is ‘going in the right direction’ – equating to a Government Confidence Rating of a massive 148.

In contrast, only 21.5% of Coalition supporters say the country is ‘going in the right direction’ – leading to a Government Confidence Rating of only 57 – well into negative territory.

Greens supporters have a positive Government Confidence Rating of 111.5.

However, One Nation supporters are deeply unhappy, a massive 89% say the country is ‘going in the wrong direction’ – and this equates to a Government Confidence Rating of only 19.5.

Supporters of Independents and Other Parties are slightly more pessimistic than optimistic with a Government Confidence Rating of 82.5.

The latest Roy Morgan survey is based on interviewing a representative cross-section of 3,957 Australian electors from June 2-22, 2025. Of all electors surveyed, 7% (up 1% since May) can’t say who they would vote for. When comparing different polls, it is always important to make sure to take note of the dates when the polls are conducted to undertake a proper comparison between two polls.

Further details will be released in Roy Morgan’s weekly video update presented by Roy Morgan Roy Morgan Poll Manager Julian McCrann.

For detailed analysis such as by States, capital cities/country areas, age, gender, occupation, and education contact Julian McCrann on (03) 9224 5365 or email julian.mccrann@roymorgan.com.

About Roy Morgan

Roy Morgan is Australia’s largest independent Australian research company, with offices in each state, as well as in the U.S. and U.K. A full-service research organisation, Roy Morgan has over 80 years’ experience collecting objective, independent information on consumers.