ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence drops 4.1pts to 94.7 while New Zealand Inflation Expectations crack back through the 5% barrier
Key points
- ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence fell 4.1 points to 94.7 in July, continuing its recent zig-zag pattern.
- The proportion of households thinking it’s a good time to buy a major household item (the best retail indicator) fell 1 point to -8, remaining very weak.
- Inflation expectations lifted 0.2pts to 5.1%, the highest since April 2023. Food price inflation of 4.2% year-on-year probably has a lot to do with it
Turning to the detail:
- The future conditions index made up of forward-looking questions fell 4 points to 100.9. The current conditions index fell 5 points to 85.4.
- Net perceptions of current personal financial situations dropped a sharp 8 points and are very weak at -21% with only 23% of New Zealanders (down 2% points on a month ago) saying they are 'better off' financially than a year ago compared to a rising 44% (up 5% points) who say they are 'worse off'.
- However, New Zealanders are still broadly positive about the year ahead with a net 11% of respondents expect to be better off this time next year with 39% (down 4% points) saying they expect to be 'better off' financially compared to 27% (up 4% points) who expect to be 'worse off', giving up last month’s gains.
- In July a net 8% of New Zealanders think it’s a bad time to buy a major household item, down 1% and not encouraging for retailers with 42% (up 1% point) saying now is a 'bad time to buy' major household items compared to just over a third, 34% (unchanged) that say now is a 'good time to buy'.
- Net perceptions regarding the economic outlook over the next 12 months fell 3 points to -16%. The 5-year-ahead measure was steady at +7.
- House price inflation expectations fell from 3.6% year-over-year to 2.9% year-over-year, its lowest level in over a year.
- Two-year-ahead CPI inflation expectations lifted from 4.9% to 5.1%, the highest in two years.
- For charts see page 4 of the linked PDF.
ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence fell 4.1 points in July to 94.7, while the net proportion thinking it’s a good time to buy a major household item remains negative, implying real retail sales are likely to remain soft for now (figure 2).
Check out the latest data of ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence here: ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence
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Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
