ALP two-party preferred lead reduced in September but in line with Federal Election result: ALP 55.5% cf. L-NP 44.5%

In September the ALP has a commanding two-party preferred lead, however the lead has been cut since August. The ALP is on 55.5% (down 1% from August 2025) ahead of the L-NP Coalition on 44.5% (up 1%) according to the latest Roy Morgan survey conducted with a representative Australia-wide cross-section of 5,084 electors interviewed over the four weeks from August 25 – September 21, 2025.

The Albanese Government’s two-party preferred lead in September is in line with the 2025 Federal Election result in early May: ALP 55.2% cf. L-NP 44.8%.

In the month of September primary support for both major parties was unchanged with the ALP at 34% (unchanged from August 2025) ahead of the Liberal-National Coalition on 30% (unchanged).

Support for all other parties and independents was unchanged at 36% in September. This included the Greens unchanged at 12%, One Nation up 0.5% to 9.5%, and Independents/Other Parties down 0.5% to 14.5%.

ALP leads the L-NP Coalition in five States, the LNP leads the ALP in Queensland

The ALP leads the L-NP Coalition on two-party preferred terms in five States – however there was a swing to the L-NP in four States: Victoria, Queensland, Western Australia and South Australia. The exception is Queensland, the only mainland State with an LNP Government and the only State the Coalition won a majority of the vote at the Federal Election.

The ALP’s largest two-party preferred leads are again in the two smallest States of South Australia (ALP: 58.5% cf. L-NP 41.5%) and Tasmania (ALP: 68.5% cf. L-NP 31.5%).

In Queensland the LNP has a narrow two-party preferred lead: LNP 51.5% cf. ALP 48.5%.

Two-party preferred vote in every State & Territory: September 2025

NSW:                ALP 56.5% (up 1.5% since August) cf. L-NP 43.5% (down 1.5%).

Victoria:           ALP 56.5% (down 1.5%) cf. L-NP 43.5% (up 1.5%).

Queensland:     LNP 51.5% (up 3.5%) cf. ALP 48.5% (down 3.5%).

WA:                  ALP 53% (down 3.5%) cf. L-NP 47% (up 3.5%).

SA:                   ALP 58.5% (down 0.5%) cf. L-NP 41.5% (up 0.5%).

Tasmania:        ALP 68.5% (up 5%) cf. L-NP 31.5% (down 5%).

ALP holds large two-party preferred lead among women, but much closer for men in September 2025

Women:           ALP 59% (down 1.5% since August) cf. L-NP 41% (up 1.5%).

Men:                 ALP 51.5% (down 0.5%) cf. L-NP 48.5% (up 0.5%).

Analysis by age shows the ALP holding a large lead for Australians aged under 50 in September 2025

In September the ALP has maintained a strong two-party preferred lead for all Australians aged under 50 including over two-thirds of 18-34 years old (ALP 69% cf. L-NP 31%) and nearly three-fifths of 35-49 year olds (ALP 59% cf. L-NP 41%).

Australians aged 50-64 are again split almost evenly between the two parties: ALP 50.5% cf. L-NP 49.5% while the L-NP continues to hold an advantage among Australians aged 65+: L-NP 56% cf. ALP 44%.

18-34:               ALP 69% (down 2% since August) cf. L-NP 31% (up 2%).

35-49:               ALP 59% (down 2%) cf. L-NP 41% (up 2%).

50-64:               ALP 50.5% (up 1%) cf. L-NP 49.5% (down 1%).

65+:                  L-NP 56% (down 0.5%) cf. ALP 44% (up 0.5%).

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating slides for third straight month in September

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating was at 79.5 in September (down 6 points from August 2025). Now a majority of 53% (up 2.5%) of Australians say the country is ‘going in the wrong direction’ compared to only 32.5% (down 3.5%) that say the country is ‘going in the right direction’.

The latest Roy Morgan survey is based on interviewing a representative cross-section of 5,084 Australian electors from August 25 – September 21, 2025. Of all electors surveyed, 5% (down 0.5%) can’t say who they would vote for. When comparing different polls, it is always important to make sure to take note of the dates when the polls are conducted to undertake a proper comparison between two polls.

When preferences from this week’s Roy Morgan survey for the month of August are allocated based on how Australians voted at the 2025 Federal Election held in early May the two-party preferred result produced is in line with the final two-party preferred Federal Election result with the ALP on 55.5% (unchanged from a month ago) leading the L-NP Coalition on 44.5% (unchanged).

Further details will be released in Roy Morgan’s weekly video update presented by Roy Morgan Roy Morgan Poll Manager Julian McCrann.

For detailed analysis such as by States, capital cities/country areas, age, gender, occupation, and education contact Julian McCrann on (03) 9224 5365 or email julian.mccrann@roymorgan.com.

About Roy Morgan

Roy Morgan is Australia’s largest independent Australian research company, with offices in each state, as well as in the U.S. and U.K. A full-service research organisation, Roy Morgan has over 80 years’ experience collecting objective, independent information on consumers.