ALP maintains strong two-party preferred lead in July: ALP 57% cf. L-NP 43%

In July the ALP maintained it’s commanding two-party preferred lead on 57% (down 0.5% from June 23-29, 2025) ahead of the L-NP Coalition on 43% (up 0.5%), the latest Roy Morgan survey finds.

The Albanese Government’s two-party preferred lead is significantly higher than the 2025 Federal Election result in early May: ALP 55.2% cf. L-NP 44.8%.

In the month of July primary support for the ALP was at 36.5% (unchanged from June 23-29, 2025) and is again clearly ahead of the Liberal-National Coalition on 31% (up 0.5%).

Support for the Greens was unchanged at 12% and support for One Nation was down 1.5% to 7%. In addition, support for Independents/Other Parties was at 13.5% (up 1%).

ALP again leads the L-NP Coalition on two-party preferred terms in all six States

The ALP once again leads the L-NP Coalition on two-party preferred terms in all six States – including Queensland, the only State the Coalition won a majority of the vote at the recent Federal Election.

The ALP’s largest two-party preferred leads are in South Australia (ALP: 62% cf. L-NP 38%) and Tasmania (ALP: 61% cf. L-NP 39%). At the recent Federal Election the ALP won 11/15 seats in South Australia and Tasmania, the L-NP coalition won 2/15 seats and Independent candidates won 2/15 seats.

Two-party preferred vote in every State & Territory: July 2025

NSW:                ALP 56.5% cf. L-NP 43.5%.

Victoria:           ALP 57.5% cf. L-NP 42.5%.

Queensland:     ALP 53.5% cf. LNP 46.5%.

WA:                  ALP 54.5% cf. L-NP 45.5%.

SA:                   ALP 62% cf. L-NP 38%.

Tasmania:        ALP 61% cf. L-NP 39%.

ALP holds large two-party preferred leads for both genders in July

Women:           ALP 59.5% cf. L-NP 40.5%.

Men:                 ALP 54.5% cf. L-NP 45.5%.

Analysis by age shows the ALP leading for all age groups aged under 65 (July 2025)

The ALP’s largest lead is for people aged 18-34 with ALP support at over two-thirds of this age group while the closest result is for people aged 65+ with the Coalition holding a narrow lead: L-NP 52% cf. ALP 48%.

18-34:               ALP 69% cf. L-NP 31%.

35-49:               ALP 58% cf. L-NP 42%.

50-64:               ALP 53% cf. L-NP 47%.

65+:                  L-NP 52% cf. ALP 48%.

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating down slightly in July

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating was at 90.5 in July (down 2 points from the final week of the previous month, June 23-29, 2025).

Now a plurality of 46.5% (up 0.5% since June 23-29, 2025) of Australians say the country is ‘going in the wrong direction’ compared to 37% (down 1.5%) that say the country is ‘going in the right direction’.

The latest Roy Morgan survey is based on interviewing a representative cross-section of 5,159 Australian electors from June 30 – July 27, 2025. Of all electors surveyed, 6% (unchanged) can’t say who they would vote for. When comparing different polls, it is always important to make sure to take note of the dates when the polls are conducted to undertake a proper comparison between two polls.

When preferences from this week’s Roy Morgan survey for the month of July are allocated based on how Australians voted at the 2025 Federal Election the two-party preferred result produced is identical with the ALP on 57% leading the L-NP Coalition on 43%.

Further details will be released in Roy Morgan’s weekly video update presented by Roy Morgan Roy Morgan Poll Manager Julian McCrann.

For detailed analysis such as by States, capital cities/country areas, age, gender, occupation, and education contact Julian McCrann on (03) 9224 5365 or email julian.mccrann@roymorgan.com.

About Roy Morgan

Roy Morgan is Australia’s largest independent Australian research company, with offices in each state, as well as in the U.S. and U.K. A full-service research organisation, Roy Morgan has over 80 years’ experience collecting objective, independent information on consumers.