In October, ALP and One Nation support up and support for the Coalition down

In October, primary support for the ALP was up 1% to 35%, One Nation was up 2.5% to 12%, and the Greens up 1% to 13%, while support for the Coalition dropped 3% to 27%, and support for Independents/ Other Parties was down 1.5% to 13% according to the latest Roy Morgan survey conducted with a representative Australia-wide cross-section of 4,908 electors interviewed over the four weeks from September 22 – October 19, 2025.

On a State-by-State basis support for the ALP increased significantly in the two largest States of New South Wales and Victoria while One Nation support surged in all States – now at least 10% in all States except Victoria. In contrast, Coalition support fell in all States except Western Australia.

ALP increases its two-party preferred lead in October: ALP 57% cf. L-NP 43%

On a two-party preferred basis the ALP increased its lead with the ALP on 57% (up 1.5% from September 2025) ahead of the L-NP Coalition on 43% (down 1.5%).

If a Federal Election were held now the ALP would be returned to Government with an increased majority.

The Albanese Government’s two-party preferred lead in October returns to the lead held during July 2025 and is clearly above the 2025 Federal Election result in early May: ALP 55.2% cf. L-NP 44.8%.

The increase in support for the Government came after Prime Minister Anthony Albanese travelled to the United States to address the United Nations for the first time in late September.

In addition, there was continued disunity in the Coalition over the last month. Senator Jacinta Nampijinpa Price sacked by Opposition Leader Sussan Ley in mid-September, in early October Liberal MP Andrew Hastie resigned from the shadow cabinet citing disagreement with the Coalition’s immigration policy, and over the weekend Nationals MP Barnaby Joyce announced his intention to not re-contest his seat for the National Party and Joyce admitted to discussing a potential move to the One Nation party.

ALP leads the L-NP Coalition in all six States, including regaining the lead in Queensland

The ALP leads the L-NP Coalition on two-party preferred terms in all six States in October after regaining the lead in Queensland. There were swings to the ALP in all five mainland States during October.

The exception is Tasmania, but the ALP hold’s it’s largest two-party preferred lead in the island State with the ALP on 68% (down 0.5%) well ahead of the L-NP on 32% (up 0.5%).

The ALP also holds large two-party preferred leads in Victoria: ALP 59.5% (up 3%) cf. L-NP 40.5% (down 3%) and South Australia: ALP: 59.5% (up 1%) cf. L-NP 40.5% (down 1%).

In Queensland the ALP has regained a narrow two-party preferred lead: ALP 50.5% cf. LNP 49.5%.

Two-party preferred vote in every State & Territory: October 2025

NSW:                ALP 57.5% (up 1% since September) cf. L-NP 42.5% (down 1%). Primary support for One Nation: 12% (up 1%).

Victoria:           ALP 59.5% (up 3%) cf. L-NP 40.5% (down 3%). One Nation: 9% (up 3.5%).

Queensland:     ALP 50.5% (up 2%) cf. L-NP 49.5% (down 2%). One Nation: 15% (up 4%).

WA:                  ALP 53.5% (up 0.5%) cf. L-NP 46.5% (down 0.5%). One Nation: 11.5% (up 3%).

SA:                   ALP 59.5% (up 1%) cf. L-NP 40.5% (down 1%). One Nation: 15% (up 2%).

Tasmania:        ALP 68% (down 0.5%) cf. L-NP 32% (up 0.5%). One Nation: 10% (up 4.5%).

ALP holds large two-party preferred lead among women at over 60% in October 2025

Women:           ALP 60.5% (up 1.5% since September) cf. L-NP 39.5% (down 1.5%). Primary support for One Nation: 9% (up 2%).

Men:                 ALP 53.5% (up 2%) cf. L-NP 46.5% (down 2%). One Nation: 15% (up 3.5%).

Analysis by age shows the ALP holding a large lead for Australians aged under 50 in October 2025

In October the ALP has maintained a strong two-party preferred lead for all Australians aged under 50 including over two-thirds of 18-34 years old (ALP 69% cf. L-NP 31%) and over three-fifths of 35-49 year olds (ALP 60.5% cf. L-NP 39.5%).

However, Australians aged 50+ are almost evenly split between the two major parties. The ALP holds a narrow lead for Australians aged 50-64 (ALP 51% cf. L-NP 49%), while the L-NP’s lead among Australians aged 65+ has been significantly cut in October: L-NP 52% (up 4%) cf. ALP 48% (down 4%).

18-34:               ALP 69% (unchanged since September) cf. L-NP 31% (unchanged). Primary support for One Nation: 7% (down 1%).

35-49:               ALP 60.5% (up 1.5%) cf. L-NP 39.5% (down 1.5%). One Nation: 12.5% (up 3.5%).

50-64:               ALP 51% (up 0.5%) cf. L-NP 49% (down 0.5%). One Nation: 16% (up 6%).

65+:                  L-NP 52% (down 4%) cf. ALP 48% (up 4%). One Nation: 12% (up 3.5%).

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating was virtually unchanged at 80 in October

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating was at 80 in October (up 0.5 points from September 2025). A clear majority of 53% (unchanged) of Australians say the country is ‘going in the wrong direction’ compared to only 33% (up 0.5%) that say the country is ‘going in the right direction’.

The latest Roy Morgan survey is based on interviewing a representative cross-section of 4,908 Australian electors from September 22 – October 19, 2025. Of all electors surveyed, 5.5% (up 0.5%) can’t say who they would vote for. When comparing different polls, it is always important to make sure to take note of the dates when the polls are conducted to undertake a proper comparison between two polls.

When preferences from this week’s Roy Morgan survey for the month of October are allocated based on how Australians voted at the 2025 Federal Election held in early May the two-party preferred result produced is in line with the respondent allocated preferences for the month of October with the ALP on 57% (up 1.5% from a month ago) leading the L-NP Coalition on 43% (down 1.5%).

Further details will be released in Roy Morgan’s weekly video update presented by Roy Morgan Roy Morgan Poll Manager Julian McCrann.

For detailed analysis such as by States, capital cities/country areas, age, gender, occupation, and education contact Julian McCrann on (03) 9224 5365 or email julian.mccrann@roymorgan.com.

About Roy Morgan

Roy Morgan is Australia’s largest independent Australian research company, with offices in each state, as well as in the U.S. and U.K. A full-service research organisation, Roy Morgan has over 80 years’ experience collecting objective, independent information on consumers.