ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence lifted 6 points from 92.4 to 98.4 in November, the highest level since June 2025

Looking up?

• ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence lifted 6 points from 92.4 to 98.4 in November, the highest level since June 2025.
• The proportion of households thinking it’s a good time to buy a major household item (the best retail indicator) rose 5 points but is still net negative at -9. This indicator hasn’t been positive in more than four years.
• Inflation expectations lifted slightly from 5.1% to 5.2%.

Turning to the detail (see charts on page 4 of the linked PDF):

• The future conditions index made up of forward-looking questions lifted from 97.0 to 106.8, the highest level in a year. The current conditions index was much more subdued, barely changed at 86.0.
• Net perceptions of current personal financial situations (better or worse off than last year) fell 4 points to -19%, with 25% (down 2% points) who say they expect to be 'better off' financially than this time last year compared to a plurality of 44% (up 2% points) who say they are 'worse off' financially than this time last year, an improvement off its August lows (-24) but still very soft.
• However, a net 21% of respondents expect to be better off this time next year, with a plurality of 43% (up 4% points) who say they expect to be 'better off' financially this time next year compared to 22% (down 8% points) who expect to be 'worse off' financially, up 12 points to its highest level since April.
• A net 9% think it’s a bad time to buy a major household item, with a plurality of 44% (down 1% point) saying it's a 'bad time to buy major household items compared to only 35% (up 4% points), who say it's a 'good time to buy', suggesting caution continues, though our card spending data is trending higher.
• Perceptions regarding the economic outlook over the next 12 months lifted 13 points to -9%, the highest read this year (though it’s not strong reading). The 5-year-ahead measure rose 5 points to +9%.
• House price inflation expectations lifted from 3.1% to 3.8%, the highest level this year. Wellington is dragging the chain (2.7%).
• Two-year-ahead CPI inflation expectations rose from 5.1% to 5.2%, close to food price inflation, but much higher than CPI inflation (3%). In recent years there has been a strong negative correlation between inflation expectations and consumer confidence.

Consumers’ reluctance to spend in recent years has certainly been felt by the retail sector. Figure 2 in the linked PDF shows the net percentage of consumers saying it’s a good time to buy a major item split by whether the respondent has a mortgage or not (the latter group being a mix of those who have paid a mortgage off, and renters). It’s been mortgage holders who saw the sharp fall in mid-2024 (when the economy went into recession), but also that group that is responsible for the lift in this indicator in recent months. The drop in interest rates has not gone unnoticed.

Check out the latest data of ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence here: ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence

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