Feeling low: ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence drops to 10-month low in August
Key points
• ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence fell 2.7 points to 92.0 in August, its lowest level in 10 months.
• The proportion of households thinking it’s a 'good time to buy' a major household item (the best retail indicator) fell 4 points to -12 in August.
• Inflation expectations fell 0.3pts to 4.8%.
Turning to the detail:
• The future conditions index made up of forward-looking questions fell 2 points to 98.8. The current conditions index fell 3 points to 81.8.
• Net perceptions of current personal financial situations fell another 3 points to -24% with only 22% (down 1% point) of New Zealanders saying they are now 'Better Off' financially than this time a year ago compared to 46% (up 2% points) that say they are now 'Worse Off' - the weakest level for this indicator since October 2023.
• A net 13% of respondents expect to be better off this time next year, up 2 points from a month ago with 39% (up 1% point) expecting to be 'Better Off' financially this time next year compared to 26% (down 1% point) that expect to be 'Worse Off'.
• A net 12% of respondents think it’s a 'bad time to buy' a major household item, down 4% and not a good sign for retailers with only 33% (down 1% point) saying now is a 'good time to buy' major household items compared to a rising plurality of 45% (up 3% points) that say 'now is a bad time to buy' major household items.
• Net perceptions regarding the economic outlook over the next 12 months fell 4 points to -20%. The 5-year-ahead measure also fell 4 points, to +3.
• House price inflation expectations were steady at 3.5%.
• Two-year-ahead CPI inflation expectations eased slightly from 5.1% to 4.8%.
• For charts see page 4 of the linked PDF.
Not only did overall ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence fall 3 points in August; the net proportion thinking it’s a good time to buy a major household item fell 4 points and remains negative. The retail sales data for Q2 surprised to the upside, but the consumer survey data suggests that in the bigger picture, the retail sector will continue to find the going tough for now (see figure 2 of the linked PDF).
Check out the latest data of ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence here: ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence
For comments or more information please contact:
Roy Morgan - Enquiries
Office: +61 (03) 9224 5309
askroymorgan@roymorgan.com
Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
