Support for Victorian Government and Premier Daniel Andrews plunges after cancellation of Commonwealth Games

Support for the Victorian ALP plunged to 53% (down 8.5% points since late May) compared to the L-NP Coalition on 47% (up 8.5% points) on a two-party preferred basis, following Premier Andrews’ decision to cancel the 2026 Commonwealth Games according to a Roy Morgan Snap SMS Poll conducted from July 19-20, 2023, with a cross-section of 1,046 Victorian electors aged 18+.

This result is despite 58% of Victorian electors saying the decision to cancel the 2026 Commonwealth Games is a ‘good idea’ and only 42% saying it is a ‘bad idea’.

The Roy Morgan Snap SMS Poll shows a two-party preferred swing of 8.5% points since late May (after the Liberal Party expelled Moira Deeming) and a 2.5% points to the L-NP Coalition since last year’s Victorian State Election.

Other key results from this special Roy Morgan Snap SMS Poll:

• Primary vote support for the L-NP Coalition has increased to 35.5%, up 7% points since late May, and is now ahead of the ALP on 33% (down 9% points).
• 58% of Victorian electors say the decision to cancel the 2026 Commonwealth Games is a ‘good idea’ compared to 42% who say it is a ‘bad idea’;
• 55% disapprove of Premier Daniel Andrews’ job performance – the first time since he became Premier in 2014 a majority have disapproved – compared to only 45% that approve;
• 52.5% say Premier Daniel Andrews is the ‘Better Premier’ compared to 47.5% that say Opposition Leader John Pesutto.

Primary voting intention for the L-NP Coalition is now ahead of the ALP

Primary vote support for the L-NP Coalition has increased to 35.5%, up 7% points since late May, and is now ahead of the ALP on 33% (down 9% points).

Support for the Greens is unchanged on 12.5% while support for other minor parties and independents attracts 19% of the vote, up 2% points since late May.

Legalise Cannabis – now the fifth largest party in the Victorian Parliament behind the ALP, Liberals, Nationals and Greens – attracts 1% support, down 0.5% points since late May equal with the Animal Justice Party on 1% (down 0.5% points).

There are 10.5% of Victorian electors who support Independents (including ‘Teal Independents’), up 1.5% since late May and a further 6.5% who support other parties (up 1.5% points).

Majority of electors disapprove of Premier Daniel Andrews job performance for the first time

Electors were asked “Do you APPROVE or DISAPPROVE of the way Mr. Daniel Andrews is handling his job as Premier of Victoria?”

For the first time since becoming Premier a majority of 55% of Victorian electors, up 7.5% points since late May, now say they disapprove of Premier Daniel Andrews job performance compared to 45% (down 7.5% points) that approve.

The disapproval for Premier Daniel Andrews is driven by men with a clear majority of 61.5% disapproving of his job performance compared to only 38.5% that approve. In contrast, a narrow majority of women, 51.5%, approve of his job performance compared to 48.5% that disapprove.

Premier Daniel Andrews (52.5%) is narrowly preferred as ‘Better Premier’ over Opposition Leader John Pesutto (47.5%) – the closest result since Andrews became Premier in 2014

Electors were asked “Thinking of Premier Daniel Andrews and Opposition Leader John Pesutto. In your opinion, who would make the ‘Better Premier’?”

The large lead Premier Daniel Andrews had in late May after the Liberal Party expelled Moira Deeming has largely disappeared with Opposition Leader John Pesutto closing the gap significantly this week.

Now a slim majority of 52.5% (down 11.5% points since late May) of electors say Premier Daniel Andrews would make the ‘Better Premier’ compared to 47.5% (up 11.5% points) who say John Pesutto – a margin of only 5% points in favour of the Premier.

Analysis by gender shows a majority of 56.5% of women preferring Premier Daniel Andrews as ‘Better Premier’ compared to 43.5% supporting John Pesutto while men narrowly prefer John Pesutto on 51.5% compared to 48.5% supporting Daniel Andrews.

Victorian electors say cancelling the Commonwealth Games in 2026 was a ‘good idea’

Electors were then asked “Do you think the decision by Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews to cancel the 2026 Commonwealth Games in Victoria is a good idea or a bad idea?”

Despite the drop in support for Premier Daniel Andrews and the ALP Government following the decision to cancel the 2026 Commonwealth Games – a clear majority of Victorians have backed the decision as a ‘good idea’ (58%) compared to only 42% who said the cancellation was a ‘bad idea’.

A majority of Victorian electors across all key demographics agree the decision to cancel the Commonwealth Games is a ‘good idea’ including majorities of women (63%) and men (53%) and majorities of people in Country Victoria (59%) and Melbourne (58%).

There is a clear political divide on the issue with large majorities of ALP supporters (88.5%) and Greens supporters (85%) saying the cancellation is a ‘good idea’ compared to only 29.5% of L-NP supporters.

This special Roy Morgan Snap SMS Poll was conducted with a Victoria-wide cross-section of 1,046 Victorian electors aged 18+ conducted from Wednesday July 19, 2023, to Thursday July 20, 2023.

Full demographic breakdowns by Gender, Age, City/Country including Voting Intention and detailed quantitative and qualitative verbatim responses to the open-ended questions relating to how Victorians view the each of the two leaders are available on a subscription basis, contact Morgan Poll Manager Julian McCrann. By Email: julian.mccrann@roymorgan.com. By Phone: 9224 5365.

Victorian two-party preferred results 2018-2023

Source: Roy Morgan Snap SMS Poll in Sept. 2020, Nov. 11, 2021, Nov. 24, 2021, July 2, 2022, Aug. 13, 2022, Nov. 10 & Nov. 23, 2022, May 17-18, 2023 and July 19-20, 2023. Roy Morgan multi-mode polls in Aug., Sept. & Oct. 2022.
Base: Victorian electors aged 18+.

For further comment or more information contact:
Michele Levine 0411 129 093 or Gary Morgan 0411 129 094 or Julian McCrann 0434 361 298 or email askroymorgan@roymorgan.com.