Victorian State Voting Intention: L-NP Coalition and One Nation set for a majority in Victoria’s Upper House in November
The L-NP Coalition is set to win 11 seats in Victoria’s Upper House, just ahead of One Nation (10 seats) and the ALP (nine seats). Three seats are set to be won by the Greens (two seats) and Other Parties (one seat) with seven seats still undecided according to a special SMS Roy Morgan Poll conducted from August 5-7, 2026, with a representative Victoria-wide cross-section of 2,084 electors.
The SMS Roy Morgan Poll interviewed an average of over 250 electors in each of Victoria’s eight Upper House regions.
Importantly, these results show that the L-NP Coalition and One Nation are set to win a majority of at least 21 seats in Victoria’s Upper House compared to a total of 11 seats for the ALP and the Greens, with seven seats still to be decided.
Victorian Upper House Regions – Predicted Seats by 3 Country Regions & 5 Metropolitan Regions
| Total Upper House | 3 Country Regions | 5 Metropolitan Regions | |
| Seats | Seats | Seats | |
| L-NP | 11 | 5 | 6 |
| One Nation | 10 | 3 | 7 |
| ALP | 9 | 3 | 6 |
| Greens | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| Ind/ Others | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Undecided | 7 | 4 | 3 |
| Total Seats | 40 | 15 | 25 |
To win a seat in Victoria’s Upper House, a candidate must secure 16.7% of the vote in any given region.
Last week new legislation was passed in the Victorian Parliament which abolished Group Voting Tickets (GVTs) in Victoria’s Upper House which means there will be significant preference exhaustion and any party with at least 12% support is projected to secure that seat after the distribution of preferences.
This means a party must record support of at least 29% in any given region to be confident of securing a second Upper House seat in that region.
L-NP Coalition and One Nation set to win a majority in Victoria’s Upper House in November
The L-NP Coalition is on track to secure at least 11 seats including two seats in three Upper House Regions: Eastern Victoria (32.5% support), Northern Victoria (30.5%) and Southern Metropolitan (36%), and one seat in the five other regions of Western Victoria (26%), Northern Metropolitan (13%), Western Metropolitan (16%), North-Eastern Metropolitan (26.5%) and South-Eastern Metropolitan (22%).
One Nation is on track to secure at least 10 seats including two seats in two Upper House Regions: Western Metropolitan (29.5% support) and South-Eastern Metropolitan (36.5%), and one seat in the six other regions of Eastern Victoria (26.5%), Northern Victoria (27%), Western Victoria (28.5%), Northern Metropolitan (12%), Southern Metropolitan (14.5%), and North-Eastern Metropolitan (23%).
The ALP is on track to secure at least nine seats including two seats in one Upper House Region: Northern Metropolitan (39% support), and one seat in the seven other regions of Eastern Victoria (21%), Northern Victoria (22%), Western Victoria (28%), Southern Metropolitan (25.5%), Western Metropolitan (22.5%), North-Eastern Metropolitan (26.5%), and South-Eastern Metropolitan (21.5%).
The Greens are on track to secure at least two seats including one seat each in the two Upper House regions of Northern Metropolitan (22% support), and North-Eastern Metropolitan (12.5%).
One other seat is set to be won by a minor party in Western Metropolitan while a further seven seats are set to be decided by preference flows.
This special SMS Roy Morgan Poll was conducted from August 5-7, 2026, with a representative Victoria-wide cross-section of 2,084 electors. Interviewing for this poll was after Ben Carroll became ALP Leader and the new Victorian Premier on Tuesday July 28, after Carroll’s Cabinet re-shuffle completed on Tuesday August 4, and after One Nation announced Warren Pickering as the leader of One Nation Victoria on Monday August 3.
Victorian Upper House Regions: Northern, Western & Southern Metropolitan Regions
| Northern Metropolitan | Southern Metropolitan | Western Metropolitan | ||||
| % | Seats | % | Seats | % | Seats | |
| ALP | 39 | 2 | 25.5 | 1 | 22.5 | 1 |
| L-NP | 13 | 1 | 36 | 2 | 16 | 1 |
| One Nation | 12 | 1 | 14.5 | 1 | 29.5 | 2 |
| Greens | 22 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 11 | 0 |
| Ind/ Others | 14 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 21 | 1 |
| Undecided | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Total | 100 | 5 | 100 | 5 | 100 | 5 |
There were an average of 240 electors interviewed in each of the five Metropolitan Regions.
Victorian Upper House Regions: North-Eastern & South-Eastern Metropolitan Regions
| North-Eastern Metropolitan | South-Eastern Metropolitan | |||
| % | Seats | % | Seats | |
| ALP | 26.5 | 1 | 21.5 | 1 |
| L-NP | 26.5 | 1 | 22 | 1 |
| One Nation | 23 | 1 | 36.5 | 2 |
| Greens | 12.5 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Ind/ Others | 11.5 | 0 | 14 | 0 |
| Undecided | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Total | 100 | 5 | 100 | 5 |
There were an average of 240 electors interviewed in each of the five Metropolitan Regions.
Victorian Upper House Regions: 3 Country Regions
| Eastern Victoria | Northern Victoria | Western Victoria | ||||
| % | Seats | % | Seats | % | Seats | |
| L-NP | 32.5 | 2 | 30.5 | 2 | 26 | 1 |
| One Nation | 26.5 | 1 | 27 | 1 | 28.5 | 1 |
| ALP | 21 | 1 | 22 | 1 | 28 | 1 |
| Greens | 9.5 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 8 | 0 |
| Ind/ Others | 10.5 | 0 | 9.5 | 0 | 9.5 | 0 |
| Undecided | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Total | 100 | 5 | 100 | 5 | 100 | 5 |
There were an average of 270 electors interviewed in each of the three Country Regions.
This special SMS Roy Morgan survey was conducted from August 5-7, 2026, with a representative Victoria-wide cross-section of 2,084 electors.
Further details will be released in Roy Morgan’s weekly video update presented by Roy Morgan Chief Executive Officer Michele Levine.
In-depth detailed analysis such as by capital cities/country areas, age, gender, Victoria’s eight Upper House regions, occupation, and education is available to subscribers to the Morgan Poll.
To learn more contact Julian McCrann on (03) 9224 5365 or email julian.mccrann@roymorgan.com.
Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
