Federal Voting Intention (Late January): ALP increases two-party preferred lead as One Nation overtakes the Liberal Party for the first time as Coalition splits

In the week of January 19-25, 2026, the Roy Morgan Poll shows primary support for the ALP up 2% to 30.5% and One Nation support up 1.5% to 22.5% and ahead of the Liberal Party on 20% (down 2%) for the first time during the week the National Party dissolved the L-NP Coalition – at least for now. Primary support for National was up 0.5% to 2.5%.

Primary support for the Greens was down 0.5% to 13% while Independent/ Other Parties were down 1.5% to 11.5%. The latest Roy Morgan survey was conducted with a representative Australia-wide cross-section of 1,653 electors in the week of January 19-25, 2026.

On a two-party preferred basis, the ALP is now on 56.5% (up 3% from a week ago) ahead of the Coalition on 43.5% (down 3%). When preferences from this week’s Roy Morgan survey are allocated based on how Australians voted at the 2025 Federal Election the two-party preferred result is closer than the respondent allocated preferences with the ALP on 54.5% (up 1.5%) leading the L-NP Coalition on 45.5% (down 1.5%).

Roy Morgan Interviewing in December 2025 and January 2026: Primary Vote & Two-Party Preferred

*Interviewing dates of Australian electors aged 18+: December 2025: November 17 – December 14, 2025 (n=5,123); Early January 2026: January 5-11, 2026 (n=1,676), Mid-January 2026: January 12-18, 2026 (n=1,715), Late January 2026: January 19-25, 2026 (n=1,653). **Projected two-party preferred vote if the Liberal-National Parties were to return to Coalition.

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating was unchanged at 73 in late January – below the neutral level of 100 – only 29.5% of electors say the country is ‘going in the right direction’

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating was unchanged at 73 in late January. A majority of 56.5% (down 1% from mid-January) of Australians say the country is ‘going in the wrong direction’ compared to only 29.5% (down 1%) that say the country is ‘going in the right direction’.

The latest Roy Morgan survey is based on interviewing a representative cross-section of 1,653 Australian electors from January 19-25, 2026. Of all electors surveyed, 5.5% (up 1.5%) can’t say who they would vote for. When comparing different polls, it is always important to make sure to take note of the dates when the polls are conducted to undertake a proper comparison between two polls.

Further details will be released in Roy Morgan’s weekly video update presented by Roy Morgan Chief Executive Officer Michele Levine.

For detailed analysis such as by States, capital cities/country areas, age, gender, occupation, and education contact Julian McCrann on (03) 9224 5365 or email julian.mccrann@roymorgan.com.

About Roy Morgan

Roy Morgan is Australia’s largest independent Australian research company, with offices in each state, as well as in the U.S. and U.K. A full-service research organisation, Roy Morgan has over 80 years’ experience collecting objective, independent information on consumers.