Federal Voting Intention: ALP maintains big two-party preferred lead as One Nation support surges to 25%

In the week of January 26 – February 1, 2026, the Roy Morgan Poll shows primary support for the ALP unchanged on 30.5% and One Nation support up 2.5% to a new record high of 25%. Support for the Liberals dropped 2% to 18%, Nationals were unchanged on 2.5%, Greens were down 0.5% to 12.5% and an unchanged 11.5% supported Independents/ Other Parties according to the latest Roy Morgan survey conducted with a representative Australia-wide cross-section of 1,401 electors.

On a two-party preferred basis, the ALP is 56% (down 0.5% from a week ago) ahead of the Coalition on 44% (up 0.5%). When preferences from this week’s Roy Morgan survey are allocated based on how Australians voted at the 2025 Federal Election the two-party preferred result is closer than the respondent allocated preferences with the ALP on 54.5% (unchanged) leading the L-NP Coalition on 45.5% (unchanged).

If a Federal Election were held now the ALP would be returned to Government easily.

Roy Morgan Interviewing in December 2025 and January 2026: Primary Vote & Two-Party Preferred

*Interviewing dates of Australian electors aged 18+: December 2025: November 17 – December 14, 2025 (n=5,123); January 2026: January 5 – February 1, 2026 (n=1,401), Late January 2026: January 19-25, 2026 (n=1,653); Early February 2026: January 26 – February 1, 2026 (n=5,111). **Projected two-party preferred vote if the Liberal-National Parties were to return to Coalition.

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating was virtually unchanged at 73.5 – a large 26.5pts below the neutral level of 100 – only 30% of electors say the country is ‘going in the right direction’

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating was virtually unchanged at 73.5. A majority of 56.5% (unchanged) of Australians say the country is ‘going in the wrong direction’ compared to only 30% (up 0.5%) that say the country is ‘going in the right direction’.

The latest Roy Morgan survey is based on interviewing a representative cross-section of 5,1111 Australian electors over the four weeks from January 5 – February 1, 2026, including 1,401 electors for the week of January 26 – February 1, 2026. Of all electors surveyed last week, 6.5% (up 1%) can’t say who they would vote for. When comparing different polls, it is always important to make sure to take note of the dates when the polls are conducted to undertake a proper comparison between two polls.

Further details will be released in Roy Morgan’s weekly video update presented by Roy Morgan Chief Executive Officer Michele Levine.

For detailed analysis such as by States, capital cities/country areas, age, gender, occupation, and education contact Julian McCrann on (03) 9224 5365 or email julian.mccrann@roymorgan.com.

About Roy Morgan

Roy Morgan is Australia’s largest independent Australian research company, with offices in each state, as well as in the U.S. and U.K. A full-service research organisation, Roy Morgan has over 80 years’ experience collecting objective, independent information on consumers.