Federal Voting Intention (Mid-January): ALP increases two-party preferred lead as One Nation surges (up 6%) at the expense of Coalition (down 6.5%)

In the week of January 12-18, 2026, the Roy Morgan Poll shows primary support for both major parties dropped as One Nation surged 6% to 21% - a record high – following heated debate on legislation proposed on gun laws and hate speech after the Bondi attack.

Primary support for the ALP fell 1.5% to 28.5%, the Coalition dropped 6.5% to 24%, the Greens were unchanged on 13.5% while Independent/ Other Parties were up 2% to 13%.

The latest Roy Morgan survey was conducted with a representative Australia-wide cross-section of 1,630 electors in the week of January 12-18, 2026.

On a two-party preferred basis, the ALP is now on 53.5% (up 1.5% from a week ago) ahead of the Coalition on 46.5% (down 1.5%).

If a Federal Election were held now the ALP would be returned to Government with a decreased majority.

Roy Morgan Interviewing in December 2025 and Early January 2026: Primary Vote & Two-Party Preferred

*Interviewing dates: December 2025: November 17 – December 14, 2025; Mid-December 2025: December 8-14, 2025,
Early January 2026: January 5-11, 2026, Mid-January 2026: January 12-18, 2026.

ALP leads the Coalition in NSW, Victoria, South Australia and Tasmania on a two-party preferred basis, but the Coalition leads ALP in both Queensland and Western Australia

The ALP leads the Coalition on two-party preferred terms in the two largest States of New South Wales (ALP 58.5% cf. L-NP 41.5%) and Victoria (ALP 52.5% cf. L-NP 47.5%).

However, the Coalition continues to lead in the next two largest States – Queensland (LNP 52% cf. ALP 48%), and Western Australia (L-NP 53% cf. ALP 47%).

Two-party preferred vote in every State & Territory: Mid-January 2026

NSW:                ALP 58.5% (up 4% since early January) cf. L-NP 41.5% (down 4%).

Victoria:           ALP 52.5% (down 2.5%) cf. L-NP 47% (up 2.5%).

Queensland:     LNP 52% (down 2%) cf. ALP 48% (up 2%).

WA:                  L-NP 53% (down 1.5%) cf. ALP 47% (up 1.5%).

SA:                   ALP 55.5% (up 5.5%) cf. L-NP 44.5% (down 5.5%).

Tasmania:        ALP 55.5% (down 0.5%) cf. L-NP 44.5% (up 0.5%).

ALP holds two-party preferred lead amongst women and regains the lead amongst men: Mid-January 2026

The ALP has taken the two-party preferred lead amongst men (ALP 52% cf. ALP 48%) and continue to hold a large lead amongst Women: (ALP 55% cf. L-NP 45%).

Women:           ALP 55% (down 2.5% since early January) cf. L-NP 45% (up 2.5%).

Men:                 ALP 52% (up 5.5%) cf. L-NP 48% (down 5.5%).

Analysis by age shows the ALP leading the Coalition on a two-party preferred basis for Australians aged under 50, while the Coalition leads the ALP for people aged 50+

In mid-January 2026 the ALP’s overall two-party preferred lead is built on its large lead amongst electors aged 18-34 (ALP: 67.5% cf. L-NP 32.5%) and a solid lead for those aged 35-49 (ALP: 55% cf. L-NP 45%)..

The Coalition continues to lead in the two oldest age groups including 65+ (L-NP: 55.5% cf. ALP 44.5%) and amongst people aged 50-64 (L-NP 52% cf. ALP 48%).

18-34:               ALP 67.5% (up 0.5% since early January) cf. L-NP 32.5% (down 0.5%).

35-49:               ALP 55% (up 6.5%) cf. L-NP 45% (down 6.5%).

50-64:               L-NP 52% (up 0.5%) cf. ALP 48% (down 0.5%).

65+:                  L-NP 55.5% (unchanged) cf. ALP 44.5% (unchanged).

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating virtually unchanged at 73 in mid-January

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating was virtually unchanged at 73 in mid-January. A majority of 57.5% (up 12% from early January) of Australians say the country is ‘going in the wrong direction’ compared to only 30.5% (up 11%) that say the country is ‘going in the right direction’.

The latest Roy Morgan survey is based on interviewing a representative cross-section of 1,715 Australian electors from January 12-18, 2026. Of all electors surveyed, 4% (down 0.5%) can’t say who they would vote for. When comparing different polls, it is always important to make sure to take note of the dates when the polls are conducted to undertake a proper comparison between two polls.

When preferences from this week’s Roy Morgan survey are allocated based on how Australians voted at the 2025 Federal Election held the two-party preferred result is slightly closer than the respondent allocated preferences with the ALP on 53% (up 1%) leading the L-NP Coalition on 47% (down 1%).

Further details will be released in Roy Morgan’s weekly video update presented by Roy Morgan Chief Executive Officer Michele Levine.

For detailed analysis such as by States, capital cities/country areas, age, gender, occupation, and education contact Julian McCrann on (03) 9224 5365 or email julian.mccrann@roymorgan.com.

About Roy MorganRoy Morgan is Australia’s largest independent Australian research company, with offices in each state, as well as in the U.S. and U.K. A full-service research organisation, Roy Morgan has over 80 years’ experience collecting objective, independent information on consumers.