Labor set for landslide South Australian election victory

Primary support for Labor is 35% (down 5% from the 2022 State Election), well ahead of One Nation on 28% (up 25.4%), and more than double the Opposition L-NP on 16.5% (down 19.7%). Support for the Greens is 11% (up 1.9%), while 3% (down 1.8%) support Other Parties, and 6.5% (down 0.8%) support Independents according to the special SMS Roy Morgan survey conducted from February 19-23, 2026, with a representative South Australia-wide cross-section of 2,172 electors.

Despite losing primary support, the ALP’s two-party preferred support has increased since 2022 and is far ahead of the L-NP: ALP 61% (up 6.4% points from the 2022 State Election) cf. L-NP 39% (down 6.4% points). Labor also has a large two-party preferred lead over One Nation: ALP 59% cf. One Nation 41%.

The closest two-party preferred result – which is relevant for likely contests between the two parties in rural and regional seats – is between One Nation (52.5%) and the L-NP (47.5%).

These preference flows are based on how people say they will vote, as final preference "deals" between the major parties have not yet been revealed more than three weeks before the election on Saturday March 21.

The Roy Morgan Poll shows that South Australians are set to re-elect Premier Peter Malinauskas and the Labor Government with an increased majority at next month’s State Election.

The largest South Australian Election victory by Labor this century was by former Premier Mike Rann in 2006 when Labor (56.8%) won 28 seats compared to 16 seats for the Liberals and Nationals (43.2%).

The last time a party won over 30 seats (out of a total of 47 seats) at a South Australian Election was in 1993 when the Liberals under former leader Dean Brown won 37 seats compared to only 10 seats for Labor on the back of a large two-party preferred victory: Liberal Party (60.9%) cf. ALP (39.1%).

Three-Party Preferred result shows the ALP approaching majority support

A three-party preferred result – which incorporates the major party preferences (ALP, L-NP Coalition or One Nation) from supporters of the Greens, minor parties, and Independents, shows the ALP on 49.5%, well ahead of One Nation on 31% and the L-NP Coalition on 19.5%.

Premier Peter Malinauskas is clearly viewed as a ‘Better Premier’ than Opposition Leader Ashton Hurn

Electors were asked: "Thinking of Premier Peter Malinauskas and Opposition Leader Ashton Hurn. In your opinion, who would make the better South Australian Premier?"

A clear majority of 61% of electors selected Premier Peter Malinauskas as the ’Better Premier’ compared to just 30.5% for Opposition Leader Ashton Hurn, while 8.5% couldn’t say or nominated someone else.

A look at the demographic results shows Premier Peter Malinauskas leading amongst both genders, all four key age groups, in both Adelaide and Country South Australia, and amongst ALP supporters, Greens supporters, and supporters of Independent and Other Parties.

Opposition Leader Ashton Hurn is only regarded as the ‘Better Premier’ by L-NP and One Nation supporters.

A majority of South Australian electors approve of Premier Peter Malinauskas performance

Electors were asked: "Do you APPROVE or DISAPPROVE of the way Mr. Peter Malinauskas is handling his job as Premier of South Australia?"

A majority of 61% of electors approve of the way Mr. Peter Malinauskas is handling his job as Premier of South Australia compared to 37%, that disapprove, while 2% can’t say.

The electors who approve of the job Mr. Malinauskas is doing as Premier of South Australia include a majority of both genders, a majority of all four key age groups, a majority of electors in both Adelaide and Country South Australia, and majorities of ALP, Greens, and Other Party supporters.

In contrast, a large majority of L-NP and One Nation supporters disapprove of the job Mr. Malinauskas is doing as Premier of South Australia.

A majority of South Australian electors approve of Opposition Leader Ashton Hurn’s performance

Electors were asked: "Do you APPROVE or DISAPPROVE of the way Ms. Ashton Hurn is handling her job as Opposition Leader in South Australia?"

A narrow majority of 52% of electors approve of the way Ms. Ashton Hurn is handling her job as Opposition Leader in South Australia, 42%, disapprove, and 6% can’t say.

The electors who approve of the job Ms. Hurn is doing as Opposition Leader include a majority of women, people aged 18-34, 50-64 and 65+, a majority of people in Adelaide and Country South Australia, and a majority of L-NP supporters.

In contrast, people aged 35-49, and supporters of One Nation, the Greens, and Other Parties disapprove of the job Ms. Hurn is doing as Opposition Leader in South Australia.

This special SMS Roy Morgan survey was conducted from February 19-23, 2026, with a representative South Australian-wide cross-section of 2,172 electors.

Further details will be released in Roy Morgan’s weekly video update presented by Roy Morgan Chief Executive Officer Michele Levine.

For detailed analysis such as by capital cities/country areas, age, gender, occupation, and education contact Julian McCrann on (03) 9224 5365 or email julian.mccrann@roymorgan.com.

About Roy Morgan

Roy Morgan is Australia’s largest independent Australian research company, with offices in each state, as well as in the U.S. and U.K. A full-service research organisation, Roy Morgan has over 80 years’ experience collecting objective, independent information on consumers.