Swing to L-NP Coalition and One Nation closes the two-party preferred gap: ALP 52.5% cf. L-NP 47.5%

In the last week during extensive debate about fuel shortages and soaring petrol and diesel prices, ALP primary support is down 1.5% to 27%, while there were swings to the L-NP Coalition 25.5% (up 1.5%) – Liberals up 1% to 21.5% & Nationals up 0.5% to 4%, One Nation 23.5% (up 1%), and the Greens 13.5% (up 1%). Importantly, support for Other Parties/Independents fell 2% to 10.5% according to the Roy Morgan survey conducted from March 16-22, 2026, with a representative Australia-wide cross-section of 1,664 electors.

On a two-party preferred (basis based on how electors said they’d ’vote’ their preferences) ALP 52.5% (down 1.5%) is ahead of L-NP 47.5% (up 1.5%). When preferences are allocated based on how Australians voted at the 2025 Federal Election, ALP 51% (down1%) leads the L-NP 49% (up 1%) – a smaller ALP lead. If a Federal Election were held now the ALP would be returned to Government with a narrow majority under either method.

Last week was dominated nationally by fuel shortages and soaring petrol and diesel prices while in South Australia a pivotal election was won by the incumbent Labor Government led by Premier Peter Malinauskas.

The average retail petrol price has now increased by over 70 cents per litre since mid-February (+43.3%) to $2.38 per litre last week – a new record high. The economic strain caused by the rocketing fuel prices is clearly driving down support for the ALP Government around the country.

The fuel shortages and the rocketing prices of petrol and diesel follow the US and Israeli attack on Iran which began on the final day of February 28. The Iranian response has heavily impacted global supplies of many products including oil, gas, fertiliser, and helium.

A key factor in the South Australian election was lower support for Other Parties/Independents. In South Australia, this meant a higher vote for the popular South Australian Premier Malinauskas and the Labor Party, but at a national level, this support is flowing to the L-NP Coalition, One Nation, and the Greens.

Roy Morgan Interviewing in February and March 2026: Primary Vote & Two-Party Preferred

*Interviewing dates of Australian electors aged 18+: February 23 – March 1, 2026: (n=1,554), March 2-8, 2026 (n=1,532); March 9-15, 2026 (n=1,654 electors); March 16-22, 2026 (n=1,664 electors).

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating up 2.5 points to 67.5 – over 30pts below the neutral level of 100 – only 27% of electors say the country is ‘going in the right direction’

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating increased 2.5pts to just 67.5 as the US and Israel attacks against Iran continued and Iran retaliated against US allies in the Middle East.

A majority of 59.5% (down 1% point) of Australians to say the country is ‘going in the wrong direction’ compared to only 27% (up 1.5% points) that say the country is ‘going in the right direction’.

This Roy Morgan survey is based on interviewing a representative cross-section of 1,664 Australian electors from March 16-22, 2026. Of all electors surveyed last week, 5.5% (down 0.5%) can’t say who they would vote for. When comparing different polls, it is always important to make sure to take note of the dates when the polls are conducted to undertake a proper comparison between two polls.

Further details will be released in Roy Morgan’s weekly video update presented by Roy Morgan Chief Executive Officer Michele Levine.

For detailed analysis such as by States, capital cities/country areas, age, gender, occupation, and education contact Julian McCrann on (03) 9224 5365 or email julian.mccrann@roymorgan.com.

About Roy Morgan

Roy Morgan is Australia’s largest independent Australian research company, with offices in each state, as well as in the U.S. and U.K. A full-service research organisation, Roy Morgan has over 80 years’ experience collecting objective, independent information on consumers.