Swing to ALP after ‘colossal’ South Australian Election victory for popular Labor Premier Malinauskas

In the last week ALP primary support increased 3% to 30%, at the expense of the L-NP Coalition, down 3% to 22.5% – Liberals down 2% to 19.5% & Nationals down 1% to 3%, after the landslide election victory for popular South Australian Labor Premier Peter Malinauskas on March 21, 2026.

There was no change in support for other parties with One Nation 23.5%, the Greens 13.5%, and Other Parties/Independents 10.5% according to the Roy Morgan survey conducted from March 23-29, 2026, with a representative Australia-wide cross-section of 1,562 electors.

On a two-party preferred basis (based on how electors said they’d ’vote’ their preferences) ALP 56.5% (up 4%) is well ahead of L-NP 43.5% (down 4%). When preferences are allocated based on how Australians voted at the 2025 Federal Election, ALP 54.5% (up 3.5%) leads the L-NP 45.5% (down 3.5%) – a smaller ALP lead.

If a Federal Election were held now the ALP would be returned to Government with a clear majority under either method.

Last week was dominated by talk about the large election victory for popular South Australian Premier Peter Malinauskas – the Labor party won over 70% of seats in the South Australian House of Assembly (34/47) - well ahead of the Liberal party (five seats) and One Nation (four seats), while Independent candidates won the final four seats.

A look at the State based results showed a swing of over 10% to the ALP in South Australia, as well as swings of 3.5-4% in the key States of New South Wales, Victoria, and Western Australia.

The other key issue has been the continuing fuel shortages and soaring petrol and diesel prices. The average retail petrol price has now increased by over 85 cents per litre since mid-February (+52.6%) to $2.53 per litre last week – a new record high.

Next week’s Roy Morgan Poll will capture the impact of the Albanese Government’s decision this week to cut the fuel excise in half as well as suspending the heavy vehicle road user charge – both for three months.

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating drops 2.5 points to 65 – now 35pts below the neutral level of 100 – only 24.5% of electors say the country is ‘going in the right direction’

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating dropped 2.5pts to just 65 as the US and Israel attacks against Iran continued and Iran retaliated against US allies in the Middle East. The war in the Middle East has caused fuel shortages in Australia and driven petrol and diesel prices sky high.

A majority of 59.5% (unchanged) of Australians to say the country is ‘going in the wrong direction’ compared to only 24.5% (down 2.5% points) that say the country is ‘going in the right direction’.

There are considerable differences in Government Confidence Rating when looking at the different parties people are voting for:

Government Confidence among ALP supporters is high at 127.5 (down 4.5pts from a week ago), but for supporters of all other parties is below the neutral level of 100.

Greens supporters have Government Confidence of 70 (down 8pts from a week ago), well above L-NP Coalition supporters on only 35 (down 18.5pts), and One Nation supporters on just 15 (up 5pts). Supporters of Independents/ Other Parties have Government Confidence of 56.5 (up 1pt).

Roy Morgan Interviewing in March 2026: Primary Vote & Two-Party Preferred

*Interviewing dates of Australian electors aged 18+: March 2-8, 2026 (n=1,532); March 9-15, 2026 (n=1,654 electors);
March 16-22, 2026 (n=1,664 electors) and March 23-29, 2026 (n=1,562).

The latest Roy Morgan survey is based on interviewing a representative cross-section of 1,562 Australian electors over the last few days of March 23-29, 2026. Of all electors surveyed last week, 5.5% (unchanged) can’t say who they would vote for. When comparing different polls, it is always important to make sure to take note of the dates when the polls are conducted to undertake a proper comparison between two polls.

Further details will be released in Roy Morgan’s weekly video update presented by Roy Morgan Chief Executive Officer Michele Levine.

For detailed analysis such as by States, capital cities/country areas, age, gender, occupation, and education contact Julian McCrann on (03) 9224 5365 or email julian.mccrann@roymorgan.com.

About Roy Morgan

Roy Morgan is Australia’s largest independent Australian research company, with offices in each state, as well as in the U.S. and U.K. A full-service research organisation, Roy Morgan has over 80 years’ experience collecting objective, independent information on consumers.