Straight after the Budget – Federal Election too close to call: ALP 51% and One Nation 49%

Straight after the Federal Budget One Nation had more primary support (32%) than ALP 28.5%, and almost double support for the L-NP Coalition 16.5%, the Greens 11.5%, and Independents/ Other Parties 11.5% according to a Special Roy Morgan Snap SMS Poll conducted from May 13-14, 2026, with a representative Australia-wide cross-section of 2,348 electors.

See the reasons why voters support ALP, One Nation, and the L-NP Coalition listed below.

On a two-party preferred basis straight after the Federal Budget ALP 51% cf. One Nation 49% is ‘too close to call’ although the ALP 55% has a clear lead over the L-NP Coalition 45%.

If a Federal Election were held now the result would be too close to call with a likely hung Parliament with a great deal of uncertainty about the results in many electorates. The preference decisions of voters will be more important than ever in determining the result of the Federal Election due by 2028.

Majority of Australians (59%) disapprove of the job Prime Minister Anthony Albanese is doing

Electors were asked: "Do you APPROVE or DISAPPROVE of the way Mr. Anthony Albanese is handling his job as Prime Minister of Australia?"

A majority of 59% of electors disapprove of the way Mr. Anthony Albanese is handling his job as Prime Minister of Australia compared to only 40%, who approve, while 1% can’t say.

This included a majority of both genders, every age group, and voters in all five mainland States. The sole exception was a slim majority of 51% of Tasmanians approve of the job Mr. Albanese is doing. The ALP hold four House of Representatives seats in Tasmania along with one Independent while the Liberal, National, and One Nation parties hold zero seats in Tasmania.

Majority of Australians (57%) disapprove of the job Treasurer Jim Chalmers is doing

Electors were asked: "Do you APPROVE or DISAPPROVE of the way Dr. Jim Chalmers is handing his job as the Treasurer of Australia?"

A majority of 57% of electors disapprove of the way Dr. Jim Chalmers is handling his job as Treasurer of Australia compared to only 42.5%, that approve, while 0.5% can’t say. This included a majority of both genders, every age group, and voters in all five mainland States.

Two-Party Preferred results show ALP with a narrow lead over One Nation

Roy Morgan has analysed three different two-party preferred results between the ALP and the L-NP Coalition, ALP and One Nation, and the L-NP Coalition and One Nation.

The ALP is narrowly preferred to One Nation (ALP 51% cf. One Nation 49%) on a two-party preferred basis and has a far larger lead over the Coalition (ALP 55% cf. L-NP Coalition 45%).

The contest between One Nation and the L-NP Coalition is close with One Nation 51% narrowly preferred to the L-NP Coalition 49% on a two-party preferred basis.

Three-Party Preferred result shows the ALP well ahead of the L-NP Coalition and One Nation

A three-party preferred result – which incorporates the major party preferences (ALP, L-NP Coalition or One Nation) from supporters of the Greens, minor parties, and Independents, shows the ALP on 44.5%, ahead of One Nation on 36.5%, and both well ahead of the L-NP Coalition on 19%.

Key Themes Among ALP Voters – Reasons for Supporting the Australian Labor Party

Overview

The responses show that ALP voters are primarily motivated by:

• alignment with progressive/social democratic values,
• perceptions that Labor governs for ordinary people rather than wealthy elites,
• trust in Labor’s economic management and stability,
• support for housing and tax reform,
• rejection of the Liberal Party and One Nation,
• and belief that Labor is the most competent and moderate governing option.

The themes below are ranked by the approximate percentage of respondents who mentioned each theme either directly or indirectly. Respondents were allowed to mention several different themes.

Ranked Key Themes

Detailed Theme Analysis

1. Values Alignment, Fairness & Social Justice (~42%)

This was the strongest theme across the responses.

Many respondents described Labor as:

• aligned with their personal values,
• fairer and more compassionate,
• more socially conscious,
• committed to equity and inclusion,
• and more focused on helping disadvantaged Australians.

Frequently mentioned concepts included:

• fairness,
• equity,
• “a fair go”,
• social democracy,
• welfare and safety nets,
• helping ordinary Australians,
• reducing inequality,
• and supporting multiculturalism.

Representative comments included:

• “Aligns better with my values”
• “Because they put people first”
• “I believe in a fair go for all”
• “Social democratic values and policies”
• “More aligned with ordinary people”

Overall, voters strongly perceived Labor as governing for the broader community rather than wealthy elites.

2. Better Policies & Reform Agenda (~39%)

A very large share of respondents said they supported Labor because of its policies.

Voters commonly described ALP policies as:

• coherent,
• sensible,
• balanced,
• detailed,
• practical,
• reform-oriented,
• and future-focused.

Key policy areas mentioned included:

• housing reform,
• tax reform,
• workers’ rights,
• climate policy,
• healthcare,
• childcare,
• social equity,
• and cost-of-living relief.

Many contrasted Labor’s policy depth with what they saw as a lack of substantive policies from the Liberals or One Nation.

Common sentiments included:

• “They have a plan”
• “Best policies”
• “Policies are coherent, detailed”
• “The only party with any ideas”
• “Future made in Australia initiative”

3. Rejection of Liberals, One Nation & Right-Wing Politics (~36%)

A major motivation for many voters was opposition to conservative alternatives.

Respondents frequently criticised:

• the Liberal Party as chaotic, divided or favouring the wealthy,
• One Nation as racist, populist or extremist,
• and broader “Trump-style” politics.

Common criticisms included:

• racism,
• division,
• fear campaigns,
• culture wars,
• favouring big business,
• lack of policy detail,
• and attacks on minorities.

Representative sentiments included:

• “Anything but One Nation”
• “Liberals are in disarray”
• “Not interested in right-wing populists”
• “One Nation are racist”
• “The other parties have no policies”

This indicates many Labor voters were voting defensively to stop conservative or populist parties gaining power.

4. Competence, Stability & Responsible Government (~31%)

Many respondents saw Labor as the only stable and competent governing option.

Common descriptions included:

• stable,
• experienced,
• responsible,
• sensible,
• reliable,
• pragmatic,
• and capable.

Voters repeatedly referenced:

• global instability,
• economic uncertainty,
• and the need for steady leadership.

Representative comments included:

• “Competent and trustworthy”
• “Stable government”
• “Only party qualified to govern”
• “Steady responsible government”
• “The only ones capable of running the country”

This reflects strong concern about leadership quality and governing capability.

5. Economic Management & Budget Handling (~28%)

Economic credibility was another major theme.

Respondents praised Labor for:

• managing difficult economic conditions,
• balancing the budget,
• implementing tax reforms,
• handling inflation and crises,
• and making responsible economic decisions.

Many specifically mentioned:

• Jim Chalmers,
• the federal budget,
• tax reform,
• and Labor’s handling of global economic instability.

Representative sentiments included:

• “Better economic managers”
• “Good budget”
• “Smart fiscal policy”
• “Trust them with the economy”
• “Handled difficult global conditions well”

Labor was widely seen as more economically credible than its opponents.

6. Support for Workers & Ordinary Australians (~26%)

A substantial number of voters saw Labor as:

• the party of workers,
• focused on working families,
• and more interested in ordinary Australians than corporations or wealthy donors.

Frequently mentioned ideas included:

• workers’ rights,
• unions,
• fairness for working people,
• and helping younger Australians.

Representative comments included:

• “Party for working people”
• “They support workers”
• “Govern for the people not the top end of town”
• “Best party for the average person”

This remains a core part of Labor’s brand among supporters.

7. Housing Affordability, Tax Reform & Wealth Redistribution (~22%)

Housing and tax reform emerged as one of the clearest policy-specific issues.

Respondents strongly supported:

• reducing negative gearing advantages,
• changing capital gains tax settings,
• improving housing affordability,
• helping first-home buyers,
• and reducing wealth inequality.

Many specifically framed housing as a generational fairness issue.

Representative sentiments included:

• “Trying to give young people a chance at home ownership”
• “Support changing negative gearing”
• “Restructuring the tax system”
• “Wealth redistribution”
• “Addressing housing inequality”

This was one of the most emotionally charged and repeatedly referenced policy themes.

8. Climate Change & Renewable Energy (~15%)

Climate and clean energy policies were important for a meaningful minority of respondents.

Supporters viewed Labor as:

• more serious about climate change,
• more supportive of renewable energy,
• and more future-focused than conservative parties.

Representative comments included:

• “Clean energy”
• “Net Zero”
• “Better climate change policies”
• “Protecting the environment”
• “Preference for renewable energy”

Many also linked climate policy to broader concerns about modernisation and future economic planning.

9. Satisfaction with Government Performance (~15%)

Many respondents expressed general satisfaction with the Albanese Government’s performance.

Common sentiments included:

• “Doing a good job”
• “Doing OK under difficult circumstances”
• “Getting things done”
• “Handling things well enough”

Several voters explicitly acknowledged:

• global economic pressures,
• inflation,
• and international instability,
  while still believing Labor was managing reasonably well.

10. Long-Term Party Loyalty (~13%)

A notable group identified as lifelong or traditional Labor voters.

Representative comments included:

• “Always voted ALP”
• “Rusted on”
• “Lifetime Labor voter”
• “Traditionally an ALP voter”

While not always policy-driven, this indicates Labor still benefits from a durable identity-based voting base.

11. Trust, Integrity & Anti-Corruption (~11%)

Some respondents emphasised integrity and honesty.

Many contrasted Labor with previous Coalition scandals including:

• Robo-debt,
• sports rorts,
• and perceived corruption.

Representative comments included:

• “Competent, not corrupt”
• “More honest”
• “Trustworthy”
• “Integrity”

This suggests ethics and political conduct remain meaningful issues for some voters.

12. Leadership Confidence – Albanese & Chalmers (~9%)

A smaller but noticeable group specifically praised Labor’s leadership.

Anthony Albanese and Jim Chalmers were frequently described as:

• credible,
• steady,
• capable,
• intelligent,
• and trustworthy.

Representative comments included:

• “I like Anthony Albanese”
• “Chalmers speaks the truth”
• “Credible team”
• “Strong leadership”

Overall Interpretation

The responses suggest ALP support is being driven by a combination of:

1. Progressive social values and fairness;
2. Perceptions of competence and stability;
3. Support for housing and tax reform;
4. Economic management credibility;
5. Rejection of right-wing populism and conservative alternatives.

Importantly, many voters appear motivated as much by opposition to the Liberals and One Nation as by enthusiasm for Labor itself.

The strongest emotional drivers were:

• fairness and equity,
• concern about inequality and housing affordability,
• fear of right-wing populism,
• and belief that Labor is more competent and moderate than alternatives.

The data also suggests Labor’s support base currently sees the party as:

• pragmatic rather than ideological,
• reform-oriented but moderate,
• and the safest governing option during uncertain global conditions.

At the same time, some comments indicate support is conditional rather than unconditional, with several respondents describing Labor as simply the “best available option” rather than an ideal choice. Respondents were allowed to mention several different themes.

Key Themes Among One Nation Voters – Reasons for Supporting Pauline Hanson’s One Nation

Overview

The responses show that One Nation voters are primarily motivated by:

• concern about immigration and national identity,
• deep dissatisfaction with the major parties,
• perceptions that Australia is in economic and cultural decline,
• opposition to “woke” politics, climate policies and global institutions,
• belief that One Nation “puts Australians first,”
• and support for Pauline Hanson as an authentic and honest political figure.

The dominant emotional drivers are frustration, distrust, anger at the political establishment, and a desire for major systemic change. The themes below are ranked by the approximate percentage of respondents mentioning each theme either directly or indirectly. Respondents were allowed to mention several different themes.

Ranked Key Themes

Detailed Theme Analysis

1. Immigration Reduction & “Australia First” (~58%)

This was by far the strongest and most dominant theme.

Respondents repeatedly linked immigration to:

• housing shortages,
• rising rents,
• cost-of-living pressures,
• infrastructure strain,
• wage pressure,
• cultural change,
• and declining social cohesion.

Many explicitly supported:

• reducing or stopping immigration,
• stricter border control,
• deportations,
• and prioritising Australians over migrants.

Representative sentiments included:

• “Stop immigration”
• “Australia first”
• “Too many immigrants”
• “Mass immigration is destroying the country”
• “We need more houses, not more people”

Immigration was often framed not just as an economic issue, but as a cultural and national identity issue.

A significant subset of responses also contained explicitly anti-Muslim or anti-multicultural sentiments.

2. Rejection of the Major Parties / “Uni-party” Sentiment (~52%)

A very large proportion of respondents expressed hostility toward both Labor and Liberal parties.

Common themes included:

• “both parties are the same,”
• politicians only care about power,
• corruption,
• broken promises,
• lying,
• and being disconnected from ordinary people.

The term “uniparty” appeared repeatedly.

Representative comments included:

• “Labor and Liberal are the same party”
• “The uniparty is destroying Australia”
• “Both major parties have failed”
• “The two-party system doesn’t work”

This reflects deep anti-establishment sentiment and collapsing trust in mainstream political institutions.

3. Desire for Political Change & System Disruption (~34%)

Many respondents were motivated by a desire to:

• shake up the political system,
• punish the major parties,
• or force political change.

Some openly described their vote as:

• a protest vote,
• a warning,
• or a disruption strategy.

Representative sentiments included:

• “The country needs a shake up”
• “Need change”
• “Burn the house down”
• “Send a message to the major parties”
• “Give them a go”

This reflects a highly disruptive and anti-status-quo political mood.

4. Nationalism & “Australian Values” (~31%)

A large number of respondents framed their support around:

• patriotism,
• national sovereignty,
• preserving Australian culture,
• and prioritising Australians over outsiders.

Common themes included:

• “Australian values,”
• “Australia first,”
• protecting sovereignty,
• preserving culture,
• and restoring national pride.

Representative comments included:

• “Put Australians first”
• “Australian values”
• “One flag”
• “Protect Australian culture”
• “Make Australia ‘Australia’ again”

This theme frequently overlapped with immigration concerns.

5. Cost of Living, Housing & Economic Pressure (~28%)

Economic anxiety was a major driver.

Respondents commonly referenced:

• housing affordability,
• rental shortages,
• rising bills,
• inflation,
• taxation,
• and government debt/spending.

Many linked these problems directly to:

• immigration,
• climate policies,
• or government mismanagement.

Representative sentiments included:

• “Australians living in tents”
• “Cost of living is out of control”
• “Housing affordability”
• “Government spending is out of control”

Economic frustration was often highly emotional and personal.

6. Opposition to “Woke” Politics & Progressive Social Change (~24%)

Many respondents expressed hostility toward:

• “woke” politics,
• gender identity issues,
• political correctness,
• diversity programs,
• and progressive social movements.

Representative comments included:

• “Get rid of woke”
• “Anti-woke”
• “Gender ideology”
• “Political correctness”
• “Left-wing ideological nonsense”

This theme was often connected to broader concerns about cultural change and national identity.

7. Opposition to Net Zero & Green Energy Policies (~23%)

A substantial number opposed:

• net zero policies,
• renewable energy investment,
• climate regulation,
• and environmental policies.

Respondents often argued these policies:

• increased power prices,
• damaged industry,
• harmed workers,
• or weakened Australia economically.

Representative sentiments included:

• “Net zero scam”
• “Green energy is destroying the economy”
• “Build coal power stations”
• “Drill baby drill”

Climate scepticism and economic nationalism strongly overlapped.

8. One Nation “Listens to Ordinary Australians” (~22%)

Many respondents believed One Nation:

• understood ordinary people,
• listened to voters,
• and addressed concerns ignored by elites.

Representative sentiments included:

• “They listen to the people”
• “They understand real Australians”
• “They’re in touch with ordinary people”
• “The only party talking about the real issues”

This reflects strong resentment toward political elites and institutions.

9. Pauline Hanson Viewed as Honest & Authentic (~21%)

Pauline Hanson herself was a major factor.

Supporters frequently described her as:

• honest,
• authentic,
• straightforward,
• consistent,
• fearless,
• and willing to “say what others won’t.”

Representative comments included:

• “Pauline tells the truth”
• “She says it how it is”
• “Straight talker”
• “Honest and fair dinkum”

For many supporters, authenticity mattered more than polish or political correctness.

10. Conservative & Traditional Values (~18%)

Many respondents identified with:

• conservative politics,
• traditional morals,
• religion,
• discipline,
• and older social norms.

Representative sentiments included:

• “Conservative values”
• “Traditional Australian values”
• “God, morals and values”
• “True conservative party”

This theme often overlapped with anti-progressive sentiment.

11. Perception Australia is in Decline (~17%)

A recurring emotional narrative was that:

• Australia is “going backwards,”
• “being destroyed,”
• or losing its identity and prosperity.

Representative sentiments included:

• “Australia is a sinking ship”
• “The country is going down the toilet”
• “Australia has lost its culture”
• “The country is in disarray”

This sense of decline underpinned many other themes.

12. Anti-Globalism & Sovereignty Concerns (~14%)

Some respondents referenced:

• the WHO,
• WEF,
• UN,
• globalism,
• and foreign influence.

Many feared Australia was losing sovereignty or being controlled by international organisations.

Representative sentiments included:

• “Australian sovereignty”
• “Not puppets of the WHO/WEF”
• “Global agenda”
• “Foreign control”

This reflects broader populist and anti-globalist narratives.

13. Small Business & Anti-Regulation (~12%)

Small business concerns featured regularly.

Respondents criticised:

• regulation,
• taxes,
• wage rises,
• and government “red tape.”

Representative comments included:

• “Attack on small business”
• “Too much regulation”
• “Red tape”
• “Anti-small business policies”

14. Tougher Law & Order / Security (~9%)

Some respondents supported:

• harsher crime penalties,
• stronger border security,
• deportation policies,
• and stricter law enforcement.

Representative sentiments included:

• “Deport criminals”
• “Harsher prison time”
• “Border control”
• “National security”

15. Protest Vote / “Give Them a Go” (~8%)

A smaller but meaningful group admitted:

• they were voting One Nation out of frustration,
• curiosity,
• or because they felt alternatives had failed.

Representative sentiments included:

• “Why not?”
• “Give them a go”
• “Can’t be worse”
• “Send a message”

Overall Interpretation

The responses suggest One Nation support is primarily driven by:

1. Immigration anxiety and nationalism;
2. Anger toward the major parties and political establishment;
3. Cultural backlash against progressive politics;
4. Economic insecurity and cost-of-living stress;
5. Desire for disruptive political change.

The strongest emotional themes were:

• frustration,
• distrust,
• resentment,
• perceived loss of national identity,
• and belief that ordinary Australians are being ignored.

A defining feature of these responses is that many supporters see One Nation less as a traditional political party and more as:

• a protest movement,
• a corrective force,
• or a vehicle for expressing dissatisfaction with mainstream politics.

Another important pattern is that support for One Nation appears highly identity-driven and emotionally charged, particularly around:

• immigration,
• sovereignty,
• culture,
• and distrust of institutions.

Many voters framed their support not necessarily as enthusiasm for detailed policy, but as:

• a rejection of the political status quo,
• and a belief that the current system no longer represents “ordinary Australians.”

Key Themes Among LNP / Coalition Voters – Reasons for Supporting the Liberal–National Coalition

Overview

The responses show that Coalition voters are primarily motivated by:

• concerns about economic management and government debt,
• strong dissatisfaction with the Albanese Labor Government,
• belief that the Coalition is more fiscally responsible,
• support for lower immigration and more conservative policies,
• opposition to Labor’s budget, taxes and climate agenda,
• and perceptions that the Coalition is the only credible alternative government.

Compared with One Nation voters, Coalition voters were generally:

• more focused on economic competence and governance,
• more institutional and pragmatic,
• less anti-system,
• and more concerned with fiscal management and stability than cultural disruption.

The themes below are ranked by the approximate percentage of respondents mentioning each theme either directly or indirectly. Respondents were allowed to mention several different themes.

Ranked Key Themes

Detailed Theme Analysis

1. Economic Management & Fiscal Responsibility (~56%)

This was overwhelmingly the dominant theme.

Coalition voters repeatedly argued that:

• Labor cannot manage money,
• government debt is too high,
• spending is excessive,
• inflation is worsening,
• and the Coalition is more economically competent.

Common concepts included:

• “better economic managers,”
• “financial responsibility,”
• “fiscal discipline,”
• “lower debt,”
• “better budgets,”
• and “economic stability.”

Representative sentiments included:

• “Better financial management”
• “Can handle money the best”
• “Labour always generates massive debt”
• “Superior economic management”
• “Manage the economy better”

Economic competence remains the Coalition’s strongest perceived brand advantage among supporters.

2. Opposition to Labor & Dissatisfaction with Government (~48%)

A very large proportion of respondents were primarily motivated by opposition to Labor.

Common criticisms included:

• broken promises,
• lying,
• overspending,
• poor leadership,
• debt,
• socialism,
• and economic decline.

Anthony Albanese and Labor’s budget were frequent targets.

Representative sentiments included:

• “Labor lies”
• “Albo has been a failure”
• “Anyone to get Labor out”
• “Labor has ruined the country”
• “Worst government ever”

For many respondents, voting Coalition was fundamentally a rejection of Labor rather than enthusiasm for the Coalition itself.

3. Lower Taxes, Business Support & Private Enterprise (~28%)

Many respondents supported:

• lower taxation,
• incentives for investment,
• business growth,
• private enterprise,
• and smaller government.

Business owners and investors were particularly prominent in this group.

Representative sentiments included:

• “Support small business”
• “Lower taxes”
• “Better for business”
• “Promote growth and self sufficiency”
• “Support individual initiative”

There was strong concern that Labor policies were discouraging investment and aspiration.

4. Conservative Values & Centre-Right Identity (~25%)

A substantial share of respondents identified ideologically as:

• conservative,
• centre-right,
• pro-free market,
• or aligned with traditional Liberal values.

Representative comments included:

• “Conservative values”
• “Right of centre”
• “Free market”
• “Share my values”
• “Always vote Coalition”

This theme reflected long-standing ideological alignment more than specific policy grievances.

5. Immigration Concerns (~22%)

Immigration was a major issue, though generally expressed less aggressively than among One Nation voters.

Respondents linked high migration to:

• housing shortages,
• infrastructure strain,
• rising living costs,
• and pressure on services.

Representative sentiments included:

• “Reduce immigration”
• “Migration numbers are unsustainable”
• “Overpopulation”
• “Lower migration”
• “Housing and migration”

Unlike One Nation supporters, Coalition voters more often framed immigration as an economic and infrastructure issue rather than a cultural or identity issue.

6. Opposition to Labor Budget & Tax Changes (~21%)

Many respondents strongly opposed:

• Labor’s budget,
• changes to CGT,
• negative gearing reforms,
• and tax policy affecting retirees or investors.

Common concerns included:

• retirement security,
• investment incentives,
• and taxation fairness.

Representative sentiments included:

• “Reverse Labor’s tax changes”
• “Budget punishes people who worked hard”
• “Changes to CGT and negative gearing”
• “Not happy with the budget”

This was especially prominent among older voters, investors and property owners.

7. Coalition Seen as More Experienced & Capable (~19%)

Many voters viewed the Coalition as:

• experienced,
• serious,
• stable,
• and capable of governing effectively.

Representative comments included:

• “Party of government”
• “Experienced members”
• “Best equipped to govern”
• “Established party with experience”

There was widespread scepticism about One Nation’s ability to govern nationally.

8. Cost of Living, Inflation & Interest Rates (~18%)

Respondents frequently blamed Labor for:

• rising inflation,
• interest rates,
• declining living standards,
• and household financial pressure.

Representative sentiments included:

• “Cost of living”
• “Interest rates”
• “Living standards declining”
• “Inflation caused by overspending”

Economic pain was strongly tied to perceptions of poor fiscal management.

9. Opposition to Net Zero & Climate Policies (~16%)

Many Coalition voters criticised:

• net zero targets,
• renewable energy policies,
• and climate spending.

Respondents often argued these policies:

• increased energy prices,
• harmed productivity,
• or damaged industry.

Representative sentiments included:

• “Net zero stupidity”
• “End net zero”
• “Promote nuclear power”
• “Better energy policy”

This issue was important but generally less emotionally intense than among One Nation supporters.

10. Traditional Coalition Loyalty (~15%)

A notable group identified as:

• lifelong Liberal/National voters,
• habitual Coalition supporters,
• or members of the party.

Representative comments included:

• “Always vote Coalition”
• “Tradition”
• “Historically a Coalition voter”
• “Always first choice”

This reflects the Coalition’s enduring identity-based support base.

11. Small Business, Rural & Regional Support (~14%)

Support for:

• farmers,
• rural communities,
• regional infrastructure,
• and small business owners
  was especially strong among Nationals-aligned voters.

Representative sentiments included:

• “They know what a farmer is”
• “Support rural policy”
• “Regional electorate”
• “Support small business”

Many respondents felt Labor was too city-focused.

12. Trust, Stability & Reliability (~11%)

Some respondents described the Coalition as:

• more trustworthy,
• stable,
• reliable,
• and predictable.

Representative sentiments included:

• “I trust them”
• “More reliable party”
• “More believable”
• “Responsible group”

This theme was often tied to economic management.

13. Opposition to “Woke” or Socialist Politics (~10%)

A smaller but visible group criticised:

• socialism,
• unions,
• progressive politics,
• and “woke” policies.

Representative comments included:

• “Anti-woke”
• “Communist mindset”
• “Labor are socialists”
• “Move away from woke policies”

Compared with One Nation voters, this rhetoric was generally less extreme and less central.

14. Preference for Major-Party Stability Over Minor Parties (~9%)

Many respondents rejected One Nation because they believed:

• it could not govern,
• lacked depth,
• or was too extreme.

Representative sentiments included:

• “One Nation cannot govern”
• “Need one of the two major parties”
• “Pauline doesn’t have the substance”

These voters often wanted a mainstream centre-right government rather than a protest movement.

15. Defence, Security & Law and Order (~6%)

A smaller group referenced:

• national defence,
• antisemitism,
• ISIS brides,
• and national security concerns.

Representative sentiments included:

• “Stronger defence force”
• “National security”
• “Antisemitism”
• “Law and order”

Overall Interpretation

The responses suggest Coalition support is primarily driven by:

1. Economic management and fiscal conservatism;
2. Strong dissatisfaction with Labor;
3. Concern about debt, inflation and cost of living;
4. Centre-right and conservative values;
5. Desire for a stable, experienced governing alternative.

Compared with One Nation supporters, Coalition voters were generally:

• more institutional,
• more economically focused,
• less anti-system,
• and more motivated by governance competence than political disruption.

The strongest emotional drivers were:

• frustration with Labor,
• anxiety about economic decline,
• concern about debt and inflation,
• and belief that the Coalition is safer and more responsible economically.

A notable feature of these responses is that many Coalition voters appear politically homeless or frustrated with the current Liberal Party, but still see it as:

• the only credible governing alternative,
• preferable to Labor,
• and more responsible than populist minor parties.

There is also clear overlap between Coalition and One Nation voters on:

• immigration,
• opposition to net zero,
• and frustration with progressive politics,

but Coalition voters generally framed these issues more through:

• economics,
• governance,
• and stability, rather than identity or anti-establishment populism.

This special SMS Roy Morgan survey was conducted from May 13-14, 2026, with a representative Australia-wide cross-section of 2,348 electors.

Further details will be released in Roy Morgan’s weekly video update presented by Roy Morgan Chief Executive Officer Michele Levine.

For detailed analysis such as by States, capital cities/country areas, age and gender, contact Julian McCrann on (03) 9224 5365 or email julian.mccrann@roymorgan.com.

About Roy Morgan

Roy Morgan is Australia’s largest independent Australian research company, with offices in each state, as well as in the U.S. and U.K. A full-service research organisation, Roy Morgan has over 80 years’ experience collecting objective, independent information on consumers.