Support for ALP and L-NP Coalition down as support for One Nation increases following Federal Budget

In the last week ALP primary support dropped 1% to 29.5%, and L-NP Coalition support dropped 1% to 24% - Liberals 21% (unchanged) and Nationals 3% (down 1%). One Nation increased support 2.5% to 24.5%, while the Greens were unchanged on 11.5%, and Independents/ Other Parties were virtually unchanged on 10.5% according to the Roy Morgan survey conducted from May 11-17, 2026, with a representative Australia-wide cross-section of 1,668 electors.

Last week Treasurer Jim Chalmers delivered his fifth Federal Budget on the night of Tuesday May 12 with Opposition Leader Angus Taylor delivering the official reply two days later on the night of Thursday May 14.

Chalmer’s Budget included changes to the treatment of the capital gains tax discounts as well as restricting negative gearing to newly built properties only, and additional tax cuts over the next two years.

Taylor’s reply included vows to ‘cut bracket creep’ (to stop inflation driving taxpayers into high tax brackets), ‘cut net migration’ (to a sustainable level in line with housing construction), and ‘cut net zero’.

ALP leads both the L-NP Coalition and One Nation on a two-party preferred basis

On a two-party preferred basis (based on how electors said they’d ’vote’ their preferences) ALP 54% is ahead of L-NP 46%. When preferences are allocated based on how Australians voted at the 2025 Federal Election, ALP 52.5% leads L-NP 47.5%.

In many electorates at the next Federal Election the contest is likely to be between the ALP and One Nation. When preferences are allocated for Coalition, Greens, Independent, and Other Party supporters between the ALP and One Nation based on the preference flows in last week’s Special Post-Budget SMS Morgan Poll the ALP 54% leads One Nation 46%.

The Special Post-Budget SMS Morgan Poll was taken immediately after the Federal Budget was handed down, but before both Opposition Leader Angus Taylor and One Nation Leader Pauline Hanson had given their Budget reply speeches.

ALP has a clear two-party preferred lead among women and leads amongst men

Analysis by gender shows the ALP leading clearly amongst women on a two-party preferred basis:
ALP 55% (down 3.5% points) cf. L-NP 45% (up 3.5% points).

The ALP has gained support amongst men and is now in the lead on a two-party preferred basis: ALP 52.5% (up 4.5% points) cf. L-NP Coalition 47.5% (down 4.5% points).

If a Federal Election were held now the ALP would be returned to Government with a clear majority under either method.

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating of 68 – is up 3 points on a week ago but over 30 points below the neutral level of 100:

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating increased 3pts to 68 this week. A large majority of Australians say the country is ‘going in the wrong direction’, 58.5% (down 1.5% points). Only 26.5% (up 1.5% points) say the country is ‘going in the right direction’.

The low Government Confidence comes as concerns about fuel shortages and rising petrol and diesel prices persist in Australia, and the continuing concerns about the fragile ceasefire between the United States and Iran which risks causing further problems for Australia’s energy supplies over the next few weeks and months.

There remain considerable differences in the Government Confidence Rating by party. Government Confidence among ALP supporters has increased 6 points to 135 this week, but for supporters of all other parties, is below the neutral level of 100.

Greens supporters have Government Confidence of 80.5 (down 1 point from a week ago), above L-NP Coalition supporters on 42 (up 9pts), supporters of Independents/ Other Parties have Government Confidence of 59 (down 1pt) and One Nation supporters have a Government Confidence Rating of just 12 (up 1.5pts).

Roy Morgan Interviewing in April & May 2026: Primary Vote & Two-Party Preferred

*Interviewing dates of Australian electors aged 18+: April 20-26, 2026 (n=1,587), April 27 – May 3, 2026 (n=1,681),
May 4-10, 2026 (n1,605) and May 11-17, 2026 (n=1,668).

Further details will be released in Roy Morgan’s weekly video update presented by Roy Morgan Chief Executive Officer Michele Levine.

For detailed analysis such as by States, capital cities/country areas, age, gender, occupation, and education contact Julian McCrann on (03) 9224 5365 or email julian.mccrann@roymorgan.com.

About Roy Morgan

Roy Morgan is Australia’s largest independent Australian research company, with offices in each state, as well as in the U.S. and U.K. A full-service research organisation, Roy Morgan has over 80 years’ experience collecting objective, independent information on consumers.