Support for ALP and L-NP Coalition down as One Nation gains support for third straight week

In the last week ALP primary support dropped 2% to 27.5%, and L-NP Coalition support dropped 1% to 23% - Liberals 21% (unchanged) and Nationals 2% (down 1%). One Nation increased support 1% to 25.5%, the Greens were up 2% to 13.5%, and Independents/ Other Parties were unchanged on 10.5% according to the Roy Morgan survey conducted from May 18-24, 2026, with a representative Australia-wide cross-section of 1,613 electors.

Importantly, the gap between One Nation (25.5%) and the L-NP Coalition (23%) has now widened to 2.5% points – the largest since the Liberal leadership spill on Friday February 13 when Sussan Ley was deposed and Angus Taylor was elected as the new Liberal Leader.

ALP leads both the L-NP Coalition and One Nation on a two-party preferred basis

On a two-party preferred basis (based on how electors said they’d ’vote’ their preferences) ALP 53% (down 1%) is ahead of L-NP 47% (up 1%). When preferences are allocated based on how Australians voted at the 2025 Federal Election, ALP 52% (down 0.5%) leads L-NP 48% (up 0.5%).

In many electorates at the next Federal Election the contest is likely to be between the ALP and One Nation. When preferences are allocated for Coalition, Greens, Independent, and Other Party supporters between the ALP and One Nation the Morgan Poll estimates the ALP 53.5% leading One Nation 46.5%.

The complicated nature of the next Federal Election means there will be contests between the ALP and One Nation, the ALP and L-NP Coalition, One Nation and the L-NP Coalition, and any three of these parties against the Greens, Teal Independents, and other minor parties such as Katter’s Australian Party (KAP).

Roy Morgan will be providing an extensive analysis of the Australia’s 150 Federal Electorates in the next few weeks using the Helix Personas psychographic consumer segmentation and data integration tool which provides unique and incisive insights into the minds of Australian electors.

ALP has two-party preferred leads among both women and men

Analysis by gender shows the ALP leading amongst women on a two-party preferred basis: ALP 53.5% (down 1.5% points) cf. L-NP 46.5% (up 1.5% points).

The ALP has a narrow lead amongst men on a two-party preferred basis: ALP 52% (down 0.5% points) cf. L-NP Coalition 48% (up 0.5% points).

If a Federal Election were held now the ALP would be returned to Government with a reduced majority under either method.

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating of 65 – is down 3 points on a week ago and now 35 points below the neutral level of 100:

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating decreased 3pts to 65 this week. A large majority of Australians say the country is ‘going in the wrong direction’, 60.5% (up 2% points). Only 25.5% (down 1% point) say the country is ‘going in the right direction’.

The low Government Confidence comes as concerns about fuel shortages and rising petrol and diesel prices persist in Australia, and the continuing concerns about the fragile ceasefire between the United States and Iran which risks causing further problems for Australia’s energy supplies over the next few weeks and months.

There remain considerable differences in the Government Confidence Rating by party. Government Confidence among ALP supporters was down 1 point to a still very high 134 this week. However, for supporters of all other parties, Government Confidence is well below the neutral level of 100.

Greens supporters have Government Confidence of 88.5 (up 8 points from a week ago), above L-NP Coalition supporters on 34 (down 8pts), supporters of Independents/ Other Parties have Government Confidence of 56 (down 3pts) and One Nation supporters have a Government Confidence Rating of just 13.5 (up 1.5pts).

Roy Morgan Interviewing in April & May 2026: Primary Vote & Two-Party Preferred

*Interviewing dates of Australian electors aged 18+: April 27 – May 3, 2026 (n=1,681), May 4-10, 2026 (n=1,605),
May 11-17, 2026 (n=1,668) and May 18-24, 2026 (n=1,613).

Further details will be released in Roy Morgan’s weekly video update presented by Roy Morgan Chief Executive Officer Michele Levine.

For detailed analysis such as by States, capital cities/country areas, age, gender, occupation, and education contact Julian McCrann on (03) 9224 5365 or email julian.mccrann@roymorgan.com.

About Roy Morgan

Roy Morgan is Australia’s largest independent Australian research company, with offices in each state, as well as in the U.S. and U.K. A full-service research organisation, Roy Morgan has over 80 years’ experience collecting objective, independent information on consumers.