Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll: Support for National-led Government surges in May as Labour support falls
Roy Morgan’s New Zealand Poll for May 2026 shows the National-led Government (National, ACT & NZ First) up 4% to 51.5%, opening a large lead over the Labour-Greens-Te Pāti Māori Parliamentary Opposition, down 6.5% to 41.5%, the latest Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll finds.
Amongst the National-led Government support for National increased 5% to 30.5%, although support for NZ First was down 0.5% to 11%, and support for ACT was down 0.5% to 10%.
For the Parliamentary Opposition, support for Labour plunged 7.5% to 26.5%, support for the Greens increased 1.5% to 12.5%, and support for Te Pāti Māori was down 0.5% to 2.5%.
A further 7% (up 2.5%) of electors supported a minor party outside Parliament. This includes 6% (up 2%) who support Opportunity and a further 1% (up 0.5%) who support other minor parties including the NewZeal, NZ Outdoors & Freedom Party (NZOFP), Vision NZ, Conservative Party NZ, Women’s Right’s Party and the Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party.
National-led Government set for a Parliamentary majority of 63 seats
The survey results for May would lead to the National-led Government winning 63 seats (down five seats from the election) and the Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition would win 50 seats (down five seats).
For the governing coalition National’s support would win 37 seats (down 12 seats from the election), NZ First would win 14 seats (up six seats), and ACT would win 12 seats (up one seat).
For the three Opposition parties Labour’s support would secure 32 seats (down two seats), Greens support would mean 15 seats (unchanged) and Te Pāti Māori would win three seats (down three seats).
In addition, Opportunity Party would win its first seats in Parliament with its support of 6% enough to secure the party seven seats.
This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile – with a New Zealand-wide cross-section of 870 electors from April 27 – May 24, 2026. Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” Of all electors surveyed 4% (up 2% points) did not name a party.
New Zealand Government Confidence Rating jumped 9 points to 84.5 in May
The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating jumped 9 points to 84.5 in May. A majority of 52% (down 4% points) of electors say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’ compared to only 36.5% (up 5% points) who said New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’.
The ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating for New Zealand was at 86.5 in May and is almost 18 points above the Consumer Confidence figure in Australia of 68.8 on May 25-31, 2026.
Younger women favour the Labour-led Opposition, but everyone else favours the Government
A majority of 55% of men favour the National/ ACT/ NZ First coalition government compared to 35% supporting the opposition Labour/ Greens/ Te Pāti Māori. In contrast, women are split evenly between the two sides with a narrow plurality of 48.5% favouring the Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition just ahead of the National-led Government on 47.5%.
Younger women aged 18-49 provide the largest support to the Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition (61.5%) compared to 33.5% for the National-led Government. Support for the Greens (24.5%), and Te Pāti Māori (7%) is higher amongst this group than any other gender and age group analysed.
Among younger men, there is a narrow advantage for the National-led governing coalition on 46.5%, just ahead of the Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition on 43%. Support for ACT (14.5%) is higher amongst this group than any other gender and age group analysed.
An increasing majority of women aged 50+ favour the National-led Government (61%) ahead of the Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition (35.5%). The combined support for the two major parties, National (43%) and Labour (27%) at a total of 70% is higher amongst this group than any other gender and age group analysed.
A large majority of men aged 50+ support the National/ ACT/ NZ First governing coalition (63.5%) compared to only 27.5% supporting the opposition Labour/ Greens/ Te Pāti Māori. Support for New Zealand First (16%) is higher among this demographic than any other gender and age group analysed.
Party vote analysis by Gender & Age
| 2023 NZ Election | May 2026 | Women | Men | |||||
| All | 18-49 | 50+ | All | 18-49 | 50+ | |||
| % | % | % | % | % | % | % | % | |
| National | 38.1 | 30.5 | 31 | 19 | 43 | 29.5 | 21.5 | 36.5 |
| ACT | 8.6 | 10 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 7 | 12.5 | 14.5 | 11 |
| NZ First | 6.1 | 11 | 9 | 7 | 11 | 13 | 10.5 | 16 |
| National/ ACT/ NZ First | 52.8 | 51.5 | 47.5 | 33.5 | 61 | 55 | 46.5 | 63.5 |
| Labour | 26.9 | 26.5 | 28.5 | 30 | 27 | 24 | 30 | 18.5 |
| Greens | 11.6 | 12.5 | 16 | 24.5 | 8 | 9 | 9.5 | 8.5 |
| Te Pāti Māori** | 3.1 | 2.5 | 4 | 7 | 0.5 | 2 | 3.5 | 0.5 |
| Labour/ Greens/ Te Pāti Māori | 41.6 | 41.5 | 48.5 | 61.5 | 35.5 | 35 | 43 | 27.5 |
| Others | 5.6 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 3.5 | 10 | 10.5 | 9 |
| Total | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
| Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating | ||||||||
| Right Direction | 31 | 36.5 | 28.5 | 23.5 | 34 | 44.5 | 43 | 46.5 |
| Wrong Direction | 57.5 | 52 | 59.5 | 67.5 | 51 | 44.5 | 45.5 | 43.5 |
| Government Confidence Rating | 73.5 | 84.5 | 69 | 56 | 83 | 100 | 97.5 | 103 |
| Can’t say | 11.5 | 11.5 | 12 | 9 | 15 | 11 | 11.5 | 10 |
| Total | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
*The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is 100 plus the difference between the percentage of Kiwis who say the country is “heading in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “seriously heading in the wrong direction”.
Government Confidence Rating for men (100) is over 30 points higher than for women (69)
The Roy Morgan New Zealand Government Confidence Rating was up 9 points to 84.5 in May 2026. The Government Confidence Rating for men jumped a large 18 points to the neutral level of 100 in May, while for women the Government Confidence Rating was virtually unchanged at 69.
For men now 44.5% (up 11% points) say New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ while 44.5% (down 7% points) say the country is ‘heading in the wrong direction’ – Government Confidence of 100. For older men aged 50+ Government Confidence jumped 24.5 points to 103, and for younger men aged 18-49 increased by 12.5 points to 97.5.
Among women a majority of 59.5% (down 0.5%) say ‘New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’, while just 28.5% (down 1% point) say New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ – putting the indicator deep into negative territory below 100 at only 69. Government Confidence for younger women aged 18-49 was up 5 points to 56, while the Government Confidence Rating for older women aged 50+ dropped 6.5 points to 83.
Michele Levine, CEO Roy Morgan, says support for Prime Minister Christopher Luxon’s National-led Government has surged in May, opening up the Government’s largest lead for well over 18 months since September 2024:
“Support for the National-led Government (National, ACT, NZ First) has surged 4% points to 51.5% in May and is now 10% points ahead of the Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition (Labour, Greens, Te Pāti Māori) on 41.5% (down 6.5% points).
“Support for National increased 5% points to 30.5%, while support for National’s governing partners has softened in May. Support for New Zealand First was down 0.5% points to 11%, and support for ACT dropped 0.5% points to 10%.
“In contrast, support for Labour plunged 7.5% to 26.5% – its lowest level of support since December 2024. The Greens were a beneficiary with their support up 1.5% to 12.5%, while support for potential third partner the Te Pāti Māori is below the 5% threshold at only 2.5%.
“The overall results, if repeated at the election, would result in narrow majority of 63 seats in a (likely) 120 seat Parliament for the National-led Government. This is well ahead of the projected seats for the Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition on 50 seats, and with the Opportunity Party set to enter Parliament for the first time by winning seven seats.
“The National-led Government draws its support most significantly from both older men aged 50+ with a large lead over the Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition (63.5% cf. 27.5%) and women aged 50+ (61% cf. 35.5%). Young men aged 18-49 also now favour the National-led Government, albeit narrowly over the Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition (46.5% cf. 43%).
“In contrast, younger women aged 18-49 are the central pillar of support for the Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition over the National-led Government (61.5% cf. 33.5%).
“There is further good news for the Luxon-led Government with the Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating increasing 9 points to 84.5 – the biggest increase in Government Confidence for a year since June 2025.
“Now 52% (down 4% points) of New Zealand electors say the country is ‘heading in the wrong direction’ and 36.5% (up 5% points) say the country is ‘heading in the right direction’. In addition, ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence jumped 6.2 points to 86.5 in May.
“Luxon and his National colleagues are hoping to avoid being the first one-term New Zealand Government for over 50 years since 1975.”
For comments or more information about Roy Morgan’s New Zealand Voting Data and profiles of supporters of Labour, National and other parties, please contact:
Roy Morgan Enquiries
Office: +61 (3) 9224 5309
askroymorgan@roymorgan.com
Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
