Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll: Support for National drops to lowest in six months, just ahead of Labour
Roy Morgan’s New Zealand Poll for February 2026 shows the National-led Government (National, ACT & NZ First) on 48.5%, down 3.5% points from a month earlier, now just 1.5% points in front of the Labour-Greens-Maori Party Parliamentary Opposition on 47%, up 3% points, the latest Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll finds.
Amongst the National-led Government support for National dropped 3.5% to 31%, support for NZ First was up 0.5% to 9%, while support for ACT was down 0.5% to 8%.
For the Parliamentary Opposition, support for Labour dropped 0.5% points to 30%, support for the Greens increased 4% points to 14.5%, and support for the Maori Party was down 0.5% to 2.5%.
A further 4.5% (up 0.5% points) of electors supported a minor party outside Parliament. This includes 4% (up 1.5% points) who support The Opportunities Party (T.O.P.) and a further 0.5% (down 1% point) who support other minor parties including the NewZeal, NZ Outdoors & Freedom Party (NZOFP), Vision NZ, Conservative Party NZ, Women’s Right’s Party and the Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party.
National-led Government would win 61 seats if a New Zealand Election were held now
The survey results for February would lead to the National-led Government winning 61 seats (down seven seats from the election) and the Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition would win 59 seats (up four seats).
For the governing coalition National’s support would win 39 seats (down 10 seats from the election), support for ACT would equal 10 seats (down one seat) and NZ First would win 12 seats (up four seats).
For the three Opposition parties Labour’s support would secure 38 seats (up four seats), Greens support would mean 18 seats (up three seats) and the Maori Party would win three seats (down three seats).
This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile – with a New Zealand-wide cross-section of 870 electors from January 27 – February 22, 2026. Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” Of all electors surveyed 2.5% (unchanged) did not name a party.
New Zealand Government Confidence Rating was virtually unchanged at 84.5 in February
The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating was virtually unchanged at 84.5 in February. A small majority of 52% (up 0.5% points) of electors say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’ compared to only 36.5% (unchanged) who said New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’.
The ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating for New Zealand was at 100.1 in February and is 23 points above the Consumer Confidence figure in Australia of 77.1 on February 23 – March 1, 2026.
Women and younger people favour the Labour-led Opposition, older men favour the Government
A majority of 57% of men favour the National/ ACT/ NZ First coalition government compared to 38.5% supporting the opposition Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party. In contrast, women clearly support the Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition on 55.5% ahead of the National-led Government on 39.5%.
Younger women aged 18-49 continue to be the only gender and age group that provide majority support to the Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition (62%) compared to 31.5% for the National-led Government. Support for the Greens (24.5%), and the Maori Party (7.5%) is higher amongst this group than any other gender and age group analysed.
Among younger men, there is a narrow advantage for the Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition on 48%, just ahead of the National-led governing coalition on 46.5% - a gap of only 1.5% points.
Women aged 50+ narrowly favour the Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition (50%) ahead of the National-led Government (46.5%). The combined support for the two major parties, National (29.5%) and Labour (39%) at a total of 68.5% is higher amongst this group than any other gender and age group analysed.
Importantly, a large majority of men aged over 50 support the National/ ACT/ NZ First governing coalition (67.5%) compared to only 29% supporting the opposition Labour/ Greens/ Māori Party. Support for National (44%) and New Zealand First (11.5%) is higher among this demographic than any other gender and age group analysed.
Party vote analysis by Gender & Age
| 2023 NZ Election | Feb. 2026 | Women | Men | |||||
| All | 18-49 | 50+ | All | 18-49 | 50+ | |||
| % | % | % | % | % | % | % | % | |
| National | 38.1 | 31 | 27.5 | 25.5 | 29.5 | 34.5 | 24.5 | 44 |
| ACT | 8.6 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 12 | 12 | 12 |
| NZ First | 6.1 | 9.5 | 8 | 3 | 12 | 10.5 | 10 | 11.5 |
| National/ ACT/ NZ First | 52.8 | 48.5 | 39.5 | 31.5 | 46.5 | 57 | 46.5 | 67.5 |
| Labour | 26.9 | 30 | 35 | 30 | 39 | 24.5 | 24 | 25 |
| Greens | 11.6 | 14.5 | 16 | 24.5 | 9.5 | 13 | 23.5 | 3 |
| Māori Party | 3.1 | 2.5 | 4.5 | 7.5 | 1.5 | 1 | 0.5 | 1 |
| Labour/ Greens/ Māori Party | 41.6 | 47 | 55.5 | 62 | 50 | 38.5 | 48 | 29 |
| Others | 5.6 | 4.5 | 5 | 6.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 5.5 | 3.5 |
| Total | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
| Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating | ||||||||
| Right Direction | 31 | 36.5 | 29.5 | 24.5 | 35.5 | 43.5 | 36 | 52.5 |
| Wrong Direction | 57.5 | 52 | 56.5 | 64 | 49 | 47 | 55.5 | 37 |
| Government Confidence Rating | 73.5 | 84.5 | 73 | 60.5 | 86.5 | 96.5 | 80.5 | 115.5 |
| Can’t say | 11.5 | 11.5 | 14 | 11.5 | 15.5 | 9.5 | 8.5 | 10.5 |
| Total | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
*The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is 100 plus the difference between the percentage of Kiwis who say the country is “heading in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “seriously heading in the wrong direction”.
Government Confidence Rating for men (96.5) is over 20 points higher than for women (73)
The Roy Morgan New Zealand Government Confidence Rating was virtually unchanged at 84.5 in February 2026. The Government Confidence Rating for women dropped 5 points to 73 in February, while for men there was an increase in the Government Confidence Rating, up 4.5 points to 96.5.
For men now 47% (down 1% point) say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’ while 43.5% (down 3.5% points) say the country is ‘heading in the right direction’ – Government Confidence of 96.5. For older men aged 50+ Government Confidence was up 7.5 points to 115.5, and for younger men aged 18-49 increased by 2.5 points to 80.5.
Among women a majority of 56.5% (up 1.5% points) say ‘New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’, while just 29.5% (down 3.5% points) say New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ – putting the indicator deep into negative territory below 100 at only 73. Government Confidence for younger women aged 18-49 dropped a further 6 points to 60.5, while the Government Confidence Rating for older women aged 50+ was down by 4 points to 86.5.
Michele Levine, CEO Roy Morgan, says Prime Minister Christopher Luxon’s National-led Government has a narrow lead over the Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition eight months before the national election announced for Saturday November 7, 2026:
“Support for the National-led Government (National, ACT, NZ First) dropped 3.5% points to 48.5% in February and is now just 1.5% points ahead of the Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition (Labour, Greens, Maori Party) on 47%, up 3% points.
“Support for National dropped 3.5% points to 31% and is now just ahead of Labour on 30% (down 0.5% points). Support for National’s governing partners is largely unchanged with New Zealand First on 9.5% (up 0.5% points) and ACT on 8.5% (down 0.5% points).
“There was a significant rise in support for Labour’s likely partners in a potential government, the Greens, up 4% points to 14.5%. Support for potential third partner the Maori Party remains below the 5% threshold at only 2.5%.
“The overall results, if repeated at the election, would result in the National-led Government winning a narrow majority of 61 seats compared to 59 seats for the Parliamentary Opposition in a (likely) 120 seat Parliament. The ultimate size of the Parliament depends on any ‘overhang seats’ that may occur if a party wins seats without gaining at least 5% support at the election.
“The National-led Government draws its support most significantly from older men aged 50+ with a large lead over the Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition (67.5% cf. 29%). Men aged 50+ were the only major gender and age group to support the National-led Government.
“In contrast, younger women aged 18-49 are the central pillar of support for the Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition over the National-led Government (62% cf. 31.5%). In addition, men aged 18-49 continue to narrowly favour the Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition (48% cf. 46.5%) and women aged 50+ have swung back towards the Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition (50% cf. 46.5%).
“Of concern for the Luxon-led Government will be the low Government Confidence Rating at only 84.5. A majority of 52% of New Zealand electors say the country is ‘heading in the wrong direction’ and only 36.5% say the country is ‘heading in the right direction’. In addition, ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence crashed 7.1 points to 100.1 in February.
“Luxon and his National colleagues are hoping to avoid being the first one-term New Zealand Government for over 50 years since 1975.”
For comments or more information about Roy Morgan’s New Zealand Voting Data and profiles of supporters of Labour, National and other parties, please contact:
Roy Morgan Enquiries
Office: +61 (3) 9224 5309
askroymorgan@roymorgan.com
Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
