In first Roy Morgan Poll of 2026 National opens largest lead on Labour for over a year – since September 2024
Roy Morgan’s first New Zealand Poll for 2026 shows the National-led Government (National, ACT & NZ First) on 52%, up 1.5% points from a month earlier, now 8% points in front of the Labour-Greens-Maori Party Parliamentary Opposition on 44%, down 3% points, the latest Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll finds.
This is the largest lead the National-led Government has had for 16 months since September 2024.
Amongst the National-led Government support for National increased 1.5% to 34.5%, support for NZ First was down 1% to 9%, while support for ACT increased 1% at 8.5%.
For the Parliamentary Opposition, support for Labour dropped 2% points to 30.5%, support for the Greens dropped 1.5% points to 10.5%, and support for the Maori Party was up 0.5% to 3%.
A further 4% (up 1.5% points) of electors supported a minor party outside Parliament. This includes 2.5% (unchanged) who support The Opportunities Party (T.O.P.) and a further 1.5% (down 1.5% points) who support other minor parties including the New Conservatives, NewZeal, NZ Outdoors, the Freedom Party and the Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party.
National-led Government would win 65 seats if a New Zealand Election were held now
The survey results for January would lead to the National-led Government winning 65 seats (down three seats from the election) and the Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition would win 55 seats (unchanged).
For the governing coalition National’s support would win 43 seats (down six seats from the election), support for ACT would equal 11 seats (unchanged) and NZ First would win 11 seats (up three seats).
For the three Opposition parties Labour’s support would secure 38 seats (up four seats), Greens support would mean 13 seats (down two seats) and the Maori Party would win four seats (down two seats).
This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile – with a New Zealand-wide cross-section of 881 electors from January 6–26, 2026. Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” Of all electors surveyed 2.5% (down 2% points) did not name a party.
New Zealand Government Confidence Rating was unchanged for a third straight month at 85
The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating was unchanged at 85 in January. A small majority of 51.5% (down 0.5% points) of electors say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’ compared to only 36.5% (down 0.5% points) who said New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’.
The ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating for New Zealand was at 107.2 in January and is 26.7 points above the Consumer Confidence figure in Australia of 80.5 on January 26 – February 1-25, 2026.
Younger people favour the Labour-led Opposition, but older ages favour the Government
A majority of 55% of men favour the National/ ACT/ NZ First coalition government compared to 40% supporting the opposition Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party. In contrast, women are almost evenly split with 49% supporting the National-led Government and 47.5% supporting the Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition.
Younger women aged 18-49 are the only gender and age group that provide majority to the Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition (57.5%) compared to 37.5% for the National-led Government. Support for Labour (33.5%), the Greens (18%), and the Maori Party (6%) is higher amongst this group than any other gender and age group analysed.
Among younger men, there is a narrow advantage for the Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition on 47.5%, just ahead of the National-led governing coalition on 43.5% - a gap of only 4% points. Support for ACT (13%) is higher among this group than any other gender and age group analysed.
In contrast, older New Zealanders of both genders continue to favour the National-led Government. Women aged 50+ favour the National-led Government (57.5%) over the Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition (40%). The combined support for the two major parties, National (40.5%) and Labour (31%) at a total of 71.5% is higher amongst this group than any other gender and age group analysed.
A large majority of men aged over 50 support the National/ ACT/ NZ First governing coalition (65.5%) compared to only 33% supporting the opposition Labour/ Greens/ Māori Party. Support for New Zealand First (12.5%) is higher among this demographic than any other gender and age group analysed.
Party vote analysis by Gender & Age
| 2023 NZ Election | Jan. 2026 | Women | Men | |||||
| All | 18-49 | 50+ | All | 18-49 | 50+ | |||
| % | % | % | % | % | % | % | % | |
| National | 38.1 | 34.5 | 37 | 32.5 | 40.5 | 32 | 22.5 | 40.5 |
| ACT | 8.6 | 8.5 | 4.5 | 3 | 5.5 | 12.5 | 13 | 12.5 |
| NZ First | 6.1 | 9 | 7.5 | 2 | 11.5 | 10.5 | 8 | 12.5 |
| National/ ACT/ NZ First | 52.8 | 52 | 49 | 37.5 | 57.5 | 55 | 43.5 | 65.5 |
| Labour | 26.9 | 30.5 | 32 | 33.5 | 31 | 29 | 31.5 | 26 |
| Greens | 11.6 | 10.5 | 12 | 18 | 7.5 | 8.5 | 11.5 | 6 |
| Māori Party | 3.1 | 3 | 3.5 | 6 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 4.5 | 1 |
| Labour/ Greens/ Māori Party | 41.6 | 44 | 47.5 | 57.5 | 40 | 40 | 47.5 | 33 |
| Others | 5.6 | 4 | 3.5 | 5 | 2.5 | 5 | 9 | 1.5 |
| Total | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
| Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating | ||||||||
| Right Direction | 31 | 36.5 | 33 | 27.5 | 39 | 40 | 32.5 | 48.5 |
| Wrong Direction | 57.5 | 51.5 | 55 | 61 | 48.5 | 48 | 54.5 | 40.5 |
| Government Confidence Rating | 73.5 | 85 | 78 | 66.5 | 90.5 | 92 | 78 | 108 |
| Can’t say | 11.5 | 12 | 12 | 11.5 | 12.5 | 12 | 13 | 11 |
| Total | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
*The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is 100 plus the difference between the percentage of Kiwis who say the country is “heading in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “seriously heading in the wrong direction”.
Government Confidence Rating was unchanged at 85 for a third straight month in January
The Roy Morgan New Zealand Government Confidence Rating was unchanged at 85 in January 2026.
The Government Confidence Rating for women dropped 1 point to 78 in January, while for men there was a slight increase in the Government Confidence Rating, up 0.5 points to 92.
For men now 48% (down 1.5% points) say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’ while 40% (down 1% point) say the country is ‘heading in the right direction’ – Government Confidence of 92. For men aged 50+ Government Confidence dropped 2.5 points to 108, but for men aged 18-49 increased 2 points to 78.
Among women a majority of 55% (up 1% point) say ‘New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’, while just 33% (unchanged) say New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ – putting the indicator deep into negative territory below 100 at only 78. Government Confidence for women aged 18-49 dropped 26 points to 66.5, while the Government Confidence Rating for women aged 50+ increased by 24 points to 90.5.
Michele Levine, CEO Roy Morgan, says Prime Minister Christopher Luxon’s National-led Government has built a significant lead over the Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition early in this election year – stretching its lead to its largest for 16 months:
“Support for the National-led Government (National, ACT, NZ First) increased 1.5% points to 52% in January and is now 8% points ahead of the Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition (Labour, Greens, Maori Party) on 44%, down 3% points. This is the largest lead for the National-led Government for 16 months since September 2024.
“Support for National increased 1.5% points to 34.5% and is clearly ahead of Labour on 30.5% (down 2% points). Support is also holding up for National’s governing partners with New Zealand First on 9% (down 1% point) and ACT on 8.5% (up 1% point).
“In contrast, support for Labour’s likely partners in a potential government, the Greens, fell 1.5% points to 10.5% – its lowest level of support for over 2.5 years since June 2023. Support for the Maori Party remains below the 5% threshold at only 3%.
“The overall results, if repeated at the election, would result in the National-led Government winning a majority of 65 seats compared to 55 seats for the Parliamentary Opposition in a (likely) 120 seat Parliament. The ultimate size of the Parliament depends on any ‘overhang seats’ that may occur if a party wins seats without gaining at least 5% support at the election.
“The National-led Government draws its support most significantly from older men aged 50+ with a large lead over the Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition (65.5% cf. 33%). In contrast, younger women aged 18-49 are the central pillar of support for the Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition over the National-led Government (57.5% cf. 37.5%).
“Importantly, the National-led Government has maintained its lead among women aged 50+ for a third month (57.5% cf. 40%), underpinning its overall lead, although men aged 18-49 continue to narrowly favour the Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition (47.5% cf. 43.5%).
“Support for the National-led Government has increased steadily for five months in a row since August 2025 – lifting from 46.5% to 52%, up 5.5% points. Iin contrast support for the Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition has consistently fallen during this period, down 6% points to 44%, a significant swing between the two sides of politics of 11.5% points.
“During the last five months the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) has cut interest rates three times by a total of 1% point to 2.25% to bring interest rates to their lowest for over 3.5 years since July 2022 and clearly providing a boost to Prime Minister Christopher Luxon.
“Luxon and his National colleagues are hoping to avoid being the first one-term New Zealand Government for over 50 years since 1975.”
For comments or more information about Roy Morgan’s New Zealand Voting Data and profiles of supporters of Labour, National and other parties, please contact:
Roy Morgan Enquiries
Office: +61 (3) 9224 5309
askroymorgan@roymorgan.com
Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
